Candlestick patterns
Bullish candlestick patterns: all 44, tested on real data
A bullish candlestick pattern is a group of one to five candles that textbooks read as a sign that buyers are taking over from sellers. After a decline, it is read as a possible turn (bullish reversal); inside a rise, as a sign the rise will go on (bullish continuation). We ran all 44 bullish patterns our test bench detects on the full price history of 2,368 assets across six markets, and compared what followed each one with what follows random bars of the same assets.
Statistics updated November 5, 2026, from the latest run of our test bench. Historical statistics before fees and slippage. Not investment advice: past results do not predict future ones.
- Bullish patterns tested
- 44
- Occurrences detected
- 10,534,186
- Beat chance after all checks
- 0
- Moved opposite to the textbook
- 8
The short answer
None of the 44 bullish candlestick patterns beat chance after all our checks (multiple-testing correction, stability over time, costs), neither on all markets pooled nor on any single market and timeframe.
Strongest result on its largest sample: Inverted hammer, promising on the 10-bar move test, price moved the expected way within 10 bars 49.9% of the time against 48.2% for random bars (23,613 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour). 8 patterns did the opposite of what textbooks teach: Bullish belt hold, White closing marubozu, Bullish hikkake, Long white line, White marubozu, Short white line, Three outside up and White candle.
A bullish candle pattern alone is not a reason to buy: on our data, most of them are followed by about the same moves as any random bar. Use them as a trigger inside a plan (trend, level, stop), not as a forecast.
The 10 best-known bullish candlestick patterns, checked against random bars
These are the patterns every textbook and cheat sheet starts with. Each line gives our verdict and how often price moved the way the pattern predicts within 10 bars, next to the same rate for random bars of the same assets. The gap between the two percentages is what the pattern adds; when it is small, the pattern mostly describes what the market was already doing.
| Pattern | Expected move within 10 bars | Random bars | Occurrences | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hammer | 49.0% | 48.4% | 41,583 all markets, 1-hour | Weak, below chance 10-bar move |
| Bullish engulfing | 48.3% | 48.6% | 269,068 all markets, 1-hour | Weak, below chance 10-bar move |
| Morning star | 55.3% | 54.3% | 3,039 all markets, daily | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| Piercing line | 54.3% | 54.1% | 3,206 all markets, daily | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| Three white soldiers | 47.4% | 48.7% | 685 all markets, 1-hour | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| Inverted hammer | 49.9% | 48.2% | 23,613 all markets, 1-hour | Promising 10-bar move |
| Bullish harami | 56.0% | 54.0% | 27,061 all markets, daily | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| Three inside up | 54.0% | 54.2% | 6,665 all markets, daily | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| Bullish abandoned baby | 60.0% | 55.1% | 20 all markets, daily | Not enough data 10-bar move |
| Rising three methods | 50.5% | 53.2% | 108 all markets, daily | No clear edge 10-bar move |
Bullish reversal candlestick patterns 32
Patterns that call the end of a decline. Our rules require a prior decline for 29 of these 32, as textbooks do: without it, there is nothing to reverse. See also our guide to reversal candlestick patterns.
- Inverted hammerPromising 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 49.9% vs 48.2% at random23,613 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
- Bullish doji starPromising 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 56.6% vs 53.9% at random6,448 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Bullish belt holdOpposite of the textbook 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 48.5% vs 48.3% at random177,546 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
- Bullish hikkakeOpposite of the textbook 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 46.2% vs 48.5% at random60,238 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
- Three outside upOpposite of the textbook 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 47.6% vs 48.6% at random48,507 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
- Bullish engulfingWeak, below chance 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 48.3% vs 48.6% at random269,068 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
- Above the stomachNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 54.1% vs 54.2% at random80,330 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Bullish key reversal barNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 47.7% vs 48.5% at random50,760 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
- HammerWeak, below chance 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 49.0% vs 48.4% at random41,583 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
- TakuriWeak, below chance 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 48.7% vs 48.4% at random28,452 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
- Bullish haramiNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 56.0% vs 54.0% at random27,061 occurrences, all markets, daily
- CradleWeak, below chance 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 47.6% vs 48.4% at random11,529 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
- Bullish harami crossNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 56.0% vs 53.9% at random11,016 occurrences, all markets, daily
- First green dayNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 44.9% vs 48.6% at random8,779 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
- Bullish stalledNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 50.8% vs 48.6% at random8,401 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
- Three inside upNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 54.0% vs 54.2% at random6,665 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Piercing lineNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 54.3% vs 54.1% at random3,206 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Morning starNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 55.3% vs 54.3% at random3,039 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Homing pigeonNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 55.5% vs 54.1% at random2,432 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Matching lowNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 53.3% vs 54.2% at random1,844 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Stick sandwichNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 55.6% vs 53.8% at random1,148 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Three white soldiersNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 47.4% vs 48.7% at random685 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
- Bullish tri-starNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 54.5% vs 54.2% at random389 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Bullish modified hikkakeNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 50.4% vs 48.4% at random260 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
- Bullish island reversalNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 57.9% vs 55.0% at random221 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Bullish counterattackNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 55.3% vs 54.6% at random206 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Unique three riverNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 60.8% vs 53.8% at random97 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Bullish breakawayNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 64.5% vs 54.7% at random62 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Ladder bottomNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 54.5% vs 54.3% at random44 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Bullish abandoned babyNot enough data 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 60.0% vs 55.1% at random20 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Bullish kickingNot enough data 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 57.1% vs 54.4% at random14 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Three stars in the south (unverified)Not enough data 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 60.0% vs 48.4% at random5 occurrences, Crypto, 1-hour
Bullish continuation candlestick patterns 7
Patterns that call a pause inside a rise, then more of the same. They appear less often than reversal patterns. More in continuation patterns, tested.
- Upside tasuki gapNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 52.1% vs 55.0% at random560 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Up-gap side-by-side white linesNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 56.5% vs 55.0% at random249 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Bullish separating linesNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 56.5% vs 54.7% at random240 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Bullish three-line strikeNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 52.0% vs 54.0% at random221 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Rising three methodsNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 50.5% vs 53.2% at random108 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Upside gap three methodsNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 53.6% vs 54.4% at random56 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Mat holdNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 55.6% vs 54.6% at random36 occurrences, all markets, daily
Single bullish candles 5
Single candles with a white (green) body, such as the marubozu. Textbooks give them a bullish reading, but they are so frequent that what follows them is mostly the market itself, and several moved the other way (cards below).
- White candleOpposite of the textbook 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 47.4% vs 48.5% at random7,081,582 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
- Long white lineOpposite of the textbook 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 46.9% vs 48.5% at random578,122 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
- White closing marubozuOpposite of the textbook 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 46.3% vs 48.5% at random549,171 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
- White marubozuOpposite of the textbook 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 46.9% vs 48.3% at random226,374 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
- Short white lineWorse than chance 2:1 tradeExpected move after 10 bars: 48.2% vs 48.6% at random1,223,799 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
Each card: the shape, our verdict on the pattern's largest sample, and how often price moved the expected way within 10 bars against random bars of the same assets. A green border marks a pattern that beats chance after all our checks, on the scope named on the card. Promising: better than chance on one of our two tests, but it did not pass all our checks. It can still be luck. * Undercounted: the count is what our strict rule detected, not every occurrence that formed. †Unverified: the detection was checked on too few cases to be confirmed, so read the whole line with caution. ‡ XABCD groups four harmonic patterns (Gartley, bat, butterfly, crab) that are also counted on their own, so it is not a separate result. Before fees; past behavior, not a promise.
How to trade a bullish candlestick pattern without fooling yourself
- Check the context first. A bullish reversal pattern only means something after a decline, ideally at a level where buyers have stepped in before (support, a prior low, a round number). The same candles in the middle of a range say very little.
- Wait for the trigger. Our 2:1 trade test enters only if price breaks the pattern's high within 20 bars, with a stop at its low and a target at twice the risk. Many patterns are never triggered, and that filter alone keeps you out of a share of the failures.
- Place the stop where the pattern is wrong. If price goes back below the low of the pattern, the buyers who printed it have lost. A stop there keeps each loss to a known size.
- Judge it against chance, not against memory. On our data, a random bar was followed by a rise within 10 bars about 53.9% of the time (median over these patterns' samples). A pattern that "works" that often adds nothing.
- Do not trust the famous names blindly. The hammer and the bullish engulfing are in every list: hammer, weak, below chance; bullish engulfing, weak, below chance (largest samples, cards below).
How we tested
Each pattern is a strict written rule, run on the full price history of 2,368 assets across six markets, using only what was known at the time. What followed each occurrence is compared with what follows random bars of the same assets, on two tests: the move over the next 10 bars against the rest of the market, and a 2:1 trade against the same trade on random dates. A result only counts once it survives a correction for the thousands of tests we run, holds in both halves of the history and outlasts estimated costs. The whole pipeline first runs on random-walk prices, where no pattern can work. Method and data: the full study and open data.