CandlestickBullish

Stick Sandwich Candlestick Pattern: Rules, Trading and Tested Results

Two candles of the same color that close at the same price, with an opposite candle between them. Here is the rule, real examples and how the trade did against random dates.

· Founder of PatternsWizard
Updated Statistics updated 12 min read
Stick sandwich pattern
Occurrences tested
1,148
6 markets, 1976 to 2026, found by code
Textbook says price should rise
Too close to call
−0.005% in the expected direction vs the market after 10 bars, all markets, daily

How we tested this pattern

Sample
1,148 occurrences on 6 markets (crypto, forex, US stocks, ETFs, indices and commodities), 1976 to 2026.
Detection
Found by code, never picked by hand: every match of the rule on full price history, winners and losers alike.After a downtrend: a black candle, a white candle trading above the first close, then a black candle closing at the first close.
Benchmark
Each occurrence is compared with the same assets on random bars: the move 10 bars later, and a 2:1 reward-to-risk trade.
Checks
Block bootstrap and a correction for the thousands of tests we run, plus a random-walk self-test that the bench passes: on random prices, no pattern should win.
Updated
Data updated November 5, 2026, code version c2a1683f. Read the methodology · Raw data (JSON)

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At a glance: what textbooks say, what we measured
Direction
Bullish
Occurrences tested
1,148 occurrences, all markets, daily
Textbook: price should rise after it
Too close to call · −0.005% vs the market, 10 bars
Its best market and timeframe, still negative, US stocks left out
Crypto, 1-hour: −0.23 R 2:1 trade vs random dates, not proven
Verdict
10-bar move: No clear edge2:1 trade: No clear edge

See the statistics

On this page
  1. What is the stick sandwich candlestick pattern?
  2. Bullish stick sandwich pattern
  3. Bearish stick sandwich pattern
  4. Key components of the setup
  5. How to identify it on a chart
  6. Real examples
  7. How to trade the stick sandwich
  8. Comparison with other candlestick patterns
  9. Statistical reliability and performance
  10. Common mistakes to avoid
  11. Indicators to combine with it
  12. Case studies: real market examples
  13. Tools for automatic detection
  14. Frequently asked questions
  15. Summary of key points

The stick sandwich candlestick pattern is a three-candle formation in which two outer sessions of the same color close at the same price, with a session of the opposite color between them. After a decline, that means a bearish candle, a bullish one that trades above its close, then another bearish one that settles where the first did. The two equal closes mark support, read as a sign that the decline may end.

This guide covers the definition, how to spot it, how traders use it, and what our test bench measured on 1,148 occurrences, from equities to crypto, each compared with random days on the same assets.

What is the stick sandwich candlestick pattern?

The name describes the picture: the candle in the middle is the filling, and the two outer ones are the bread. What matters is the close. When the market ends twice at the same level within three sessions, despite a rally in between, that level has been defended.

It comes from the Japanese candlestick tradition that Steve Nison brought to Western traders in Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques (1991). It is less common than single-candle signals: our bench found one every 7,385 eligible trading sessions.

Bullish stick sandwich pattern

Identifying the setup

Our bench uses the following rule, written so a computer can apply it without judgment:

  1. A downtrend first: the last close before it is at least one average true range (ATR) below the close 10 bars earlier, and in the lower half of the 40 previous closes.
  2. A bearish first candle.
  3. A bullish second candle that trades above where the first one ended.
  4. A bearish third candle that ends at that same price, within a small tolerance.

The chart below is not drawn by hand. It is the median shape of the occurrences our bench detected, with the entry, stop and target we test.

TPSLEntryBullish
Bullish setup on the median shape of 1,140 daily occurrences from all markets, with entry, stop loss (SL) and 2:1 target (TP)

Psychology behind the bullish reversal

On the first session, sellers push the market down. Next, buyers step in and lift it above that close, which shows that demand exists. On the third, sellers return and drive it back, but only to the same closing price. They cannot break it. Classic analysis reads this as a floor: twice, selling stopped at the same place.

That reading is plausible. Whether the floor actually holds is a question for data, answered in the reliability section.

Bearish stick sandwich pattern

Identifying it

It is the mirror image after an uptrend: the same three candles with colors reversed. The matching close marks resistance.

TPSLEntryBearish
Bearish (inverted) version, drawn as the mirror image of the measured shape

Psychology behind the bearish reversal

Twice, buying stalled at one mark. Our bench tests the bullish version only, so we have no statistics for this one.

Key components of the setup

First candle: the trend setter

It moves with the decline and sets the mark that the third must match.

Second candle: the counter-move

It goes the other way and trades beyond the first close. It is the attempt to reverse. Our rule, like TA-Lib, requires its whole range, low included, to stay above that close, which is stricter than an open above it; it finds 95% of the cases TA-Lib flags.

Third candle: the sandwich confirmation

It erases the counter-move and ends at the same mark as the first. The equal closes are the whole point: if the third one closes well under the first, the decline simply continues.

How big is a typical one?

The median one spans 4.06% of price from bottom to top, or 1.29 times the average true range of the asset: only slightly larger than an average session.

How to identify it on a chart

123
  1. Black candle
  2. White, trades above first close
  3. Black, closes at first close
Median shape of all 1,140 usable daily occurrences from all markets, found by our test bench.

Market context and trend requirements

This setup needs a decline to reverse. Classic analysis gives the same shape in the middle of a range less weight; our bench only counts it after a decline.

Support and resistance levels

The formation creates its own floor at the shared close. Classic analysis gives it more weight on a zone already visible on the chart, such as a prior swing bottom or a round number. We have not measured that effect.

Volume analysis

Some classic descriptions ask for rising volume on the rally session. We split occurrences by activity above 1.5 times the 20-day average: the 2:1 target was hit 50.0% of the time for those and 38.0% for the rest, and the average trade made +0.53 R against +0.12 R: a gap in favor of heavy activity. This split is descriptive and not corrected for the number of tests.

Real examples

Real occurrences from our test bench, each on its market's main timeframe. Crypto and US stock examples come from liquid assets only (the largest coins, the most traded stocks). Best and Worst are the best and worst 2:1 trade results, Textbook the cleanest shapes (chosen on geometry alone, never on the outcome), Most recent the latest detections among the assets the gallery draws from, Typical a random draw. Shaded area: the pattern. Dashed lines: entry, stop loss (SL) and 2:1 target (TP) of the tested trade. Dotted line: 10 bars after the signal. A result above +2 R or below −1 R means a bar opened past the target or the stop, and the trade was closed at that open. Stock and ETF prices are adjusted for splits and dividends, so they can differ from the prices quoted at the time. We left out 21 cards: 19 with a shape that does not read as the definition on this page, 1 with a single bar so large that the pattern or the trade levels could not be read, 1 with an overnight jump that may be a switch between two futures contracts. They still count in the statistics, and are not replaced: our bench picks a fixed number of cards per category.

Market
Examples
US stocks overallAcross 1,049 daily stick sandwich occurrences, price moved the expected way 10 bars later 55.7% of the time, against 53.8% for random bars. The average excess return does not pass our significance test.No clear edgeThe examples below are single cases.
◂ Pattern64.8352.92+10 barsTPSLEntry2012-11
Best tradeISRG December 28, 2012Daily chart6.9% in the expected direction after 10 bars2:1 trade: target hit, +2.19 R
◂ Pattern35.6525.21+10 barsTPSLEntry2008-04
Worst tradeCIEN May 29, 2008Daily chart9.2% against the expected direction after 10 bars2:1 trade: stopped out, −1.00 R
◂ Pattern7.995.05+10 barsTPSLEntry2011-07
Worst tradeMU August 10, 2011Daily chart7.3% against the expected direction after 10 bars2:1 trade: stopped out, −1.00 R
◂ Pattern88.0771.68+10 barsTPSLEntry2018-092018-12
TextbookCOF October 26, 2018Daily chart5.9% in the expected direction after 10 bars2:1 trade: stopped out, −1.00 R
◂ Pattern109.1775.95+10 barsTPSLEntry2025-01
Most recentCRWD February 27, 2025Daily chart12.5% against the expected direction after 10 bars2:1 trade: invalidated before entry
◂ Pattern12.0910.13+10 barsTPSLEntry1986-09
TypicalIBM October 13, 1986Daily chart0.1% in the expected direction after 10 bars2:1 trade: invalidated before entry
◂ Pattern46.9938.70+10 barsTPSLEntry2018-02
TypicalORCL April 2, 2018Daily chart2.7% in the expected direction after 10 bars2:1 trade: invalidated before entry
◂ Pattern69.7458.81+10 barsTPSLEntry2020-12
TypicalMRK January 29, 2021Daily chart2.7% against the expected direction after 10 bars2:1 trade: invalidated before entry
Examples
Crypto overallAcross 683 stick sandwich occurrences on 1-hour charts, price moved the expected way 10 bars later 52.7% of the time, against 47.9% for random bars. The average excess return does not pass our significance test.No clear edgeThe examples below are single cases.
◂ Pattern0.09390.0852+10 barsTPSLEntry2026-10
Worst tradeMost recentDOGE October 7, 20261-hour chart0.9% against the expected direction after 10 bars2:1 trade: stopped out, −1.00 R
◂ Pattern29.3427.18+10 barsTPSLEntry2020-112020-11
TextbookFIL November 16, 20201-hour chart0.3% in the expected direction after 10 bars2:1 trade: target hit, +2.00 R
◂ Pattern13.7212.63+10 barsTPSLEntry2024-06
TextbookLINK June 24, 20241-hour chart1.5% in the expected direction after 10 bars2:1 trade: invalidated before entry
◂ Pattern8.828.13+10 barsTPSLEntry2026-042026-05
TypicalETC April 29, 20261-hour chart0.4% in the expected direction after 10 bars2:1 trade: closed at +0.96 R, 100 bars after entry, past this chart
Examples
ETFs overallAcross 44 daily stick sandwich occurrences, price moved the expected way 10 bars later 61.4% of the time, against 56.3% for random bars. The average excess return does not pass our significance test.No clear edgeThe examples below are single cases.
◂ Pattern32.5526.13+10 barsTPSLEntry2008-022008-05
Best tradeVWO March 19, 2008Daily chart10.4% in the expected direction after 10 bars2:1 trade: target hit, +2.00 R
◂ Pattern20.1518.54+10 barsTPSLEntry2012-03
Worst tradeEWU April 13, 2012Daily chart5.4% in the expected direction after 10 bars2:1 trade: stopped out, −1.23 R
◂ Pattern81.6180.81+10 barsTPSLEntry2026-08
TextbookMost recentTypicalSHY September 18, 2026Daily chart0.1% in the expected direction after 10 bars2:1 trade: invalidated before entry
◂ Pattern65.8861.06+10 barsTPSLEntry2004-02
TextbookDIA March 15, 2004Daily chart2.2% in the expected direction after 10 bars2:1 trade: stopped out, −1.00 R
◂ Pattern58.7354.12+10 barsTPSLEntry2023-07
TypicalEWJ August 24, 2023Daily chart3.3% in the expected direction after 10 bars2:1 trade: invalidated before entry
◂ Pattern29.6826.66+10 barsTPSLEntry2007-10
TypicalVEA November 21, 2007Daily chart6.0% in the expected direction after 10 bars2:1 trade: stopped out, −1.00 R
◂ Pattern93.5288.24+10 barsTPSLEntry2004-12
TypicalMDY January 11, 2005Daily chart0.5% in the expected direction after 10 bars2:1 trade: invalidated before entry
Examples
Indices overallAcross 22 daily stick sandwich occurrences, too few cases to give a percentage (we need at least 30).Not enough dataThe examples below are single cases.
◂ Pattern21,09119,994+10 barsTPSLEntry1994-031994-06
Best tradeTextbookNikkei 225 April 4, 1994Daily chart6.0% in the expected direction after 10 bars2:1 trade: target hit, +2.00 R
◂ Pattern8,8217,825+10 barsTPSLEntry2003-02
Worst tradeTypicalNikkei 225 March 17, 2003Daily chart1.5% in the expected direction after 10 bars2:1 trade: stopped out, −1.00 R
◂ Pattern80,89679,773+10 barsTPSLEntry2025-06
Most recentBSE Sensex July 24, 2025Daily chart1.9% against the expected direction after 10 bars2:1 trade: invalidated before entry
◂ Pattern1,5151,394+10 barsTPSLEntry2005-03
TypicalNasdaq 100 April 26, 2005Daily chart2.1% in the expected direction after 10 bars2:1 trade: invalidated before entry
Examples
Commodities overallAcross 13 daily stick sandwich occurrences, too few cases to give a percentage (we need at least 30).Not enough dataThe examples below are single cases.
◂ Pattern3,4222,731+10 barsTPSLEntry2015-12
Worst tradeMost recentTypicalCocoa futures January 14, 2016Daily chart3.4% against the expected direction after 10 bars2:1 trade: stopped out, −1.00 R
◂ Pattern15.4513.67+10 barsTPSLEntry2026-01
TextbookMost recentTypicalSugar futures February 10, 2026Daily chart3.3% in the expected direction after 10 bars2:1 trade: invalidated before entry
◂ Pattern73.7557.22+10 barsTPSLEntry2006-08
TextbookWTI crude oil futures September 22, 2006Daily chart1.3% against the expected direction after 10 bars2:1 trade: invalidated before entry
Examples
Forex overallAcross 4 daily stick sandwich occurrences, too few cases to give a percentage (we need at least 30).Not enough dataThe examples below are single cases.
◂ Pattern0.71610.6925+10 barsTPSLEntry2021-04
Worst tradeTextbookMost recentTypicalAUD/CHF May 4, 2021Daily chart0.6% against the expected direction after 10 bars2:1 trade: stopped out, −1.00 R
◂ Pattern0.78400.7161+10 barsTPSLEntry2013-05
TextbookTypicalNZD/CHF June 4, 2013Daily chart3.2% against the expected direction after 10 bars2:1 trade: invalidated before entry
◂ Pattern1.081.04+10 barsTPSLEntry2017-05
TypicalAUD/NZD June 13, 2017Daily chart0.1% against the expected direction after 10 bars2:1 trade: invalidated before entry

How to trade the stick sandwich

Our bench simulates the same plan on every occurrence: a buy stop at the top of the three candles, valid for 20 bars, a stop loss at their bottom, and a target twice as far as the stop.

TPSLEntryBullish
Entry
Buy stop at the pattern high
Stop loss (SL)
At the pattern low
Target (TP)
Twice the risk (2:1)
The trade our bench tests, drawn on the typical shape. Median shape of all 1,140 usable daily occurrences from all markets.

A clean case from our bench: US stocksChosen on its shape alone, never on the outcome. Stock prices are adjusted for splits and dividends, so they can differ from the prices quoted at the time.

◂ Pattern88.0771.68+10 barsTPSLEntry2018-092018-12
TextbookCOF October 26, 2018Daily chart5.9% in the expected direction after 10 bars2:1 trade: stopped out, −1.00 R

Entry strategies

A more aggressive entry buys at the end of the third session. We have not tested it, and it gives up the entry filter, which we have not measured on its own.

Setting stop-loss orders

The natural stop sits under the bottom of the three candles. If that bottom gives way, the floor has failed.

Profit taking and exit signals

Our bench sets the target at twice the risk. A target at three times the pattern height is another option; we have not tested it. Winning trades reached the 2:1 target in a median of 12 sessions, and stopped ones lasted a median of 5.

Comparison with other candlestick patterns

Stick sandwich vs. engulfing patterns

The bullish engulfing is a two-candle signal in which the latter body covers the former. It is far more common: 59,948 occurrences in our data, and 48,554 closed trades. Those trades reached the 2:1 target 36.9% of the time against 35.7% on random dates, rated No clear edge: its average result per trade is within the margin of error.

Stick sandwich vs. matching low

The matching low is the closest relative: two black candles that end at the same mark after a decline, without the candle in the middle. It reached the 2:1 target 36.9% of the time against 32.6% on random dates: no clear edge. The sandwich did better in our data, though comparing two setups side by side is not a formal test.

Stick sandwich vs. three white soldiers

The three white soldiers are three long white candles after a decline: a strong push rather than a defended floor. They reached the 2:1 target 34.4% of the time against 33.3% on random dates.

Stick sandwich vs. three black crows

The three black crows are their mirror image: three long black candles after a rally. They reached the 2:1 target 22.1% of the time against 26.0% on random dates.

Statistical reliability and performance

On US equities, the average result of the stick sandwich trades (+0.20 R against +0.05 R) was higher than on random dates, but the gap does not pass even a simple test (p = 0.43), let alone our correction for multiple testing. On other markets the evidence is as weak or absent. In the text, figures refer to daily charts unless stated otherwise.

55.6%vs 53.8% at random

Moved the expected way 10 bars later, compared with random bars.

Measured on 1,148 daily stick sandwich occurrences across 771 assets. Random bars on the same assets are the honest baseline.

No clear edge

Stick sandwich against random bars on the same assets, by market, on daily candles. Bars of almost the same length mean no edge.

Moved the expected way 10 bars laterStick sandwichRandom bars
  • All markets
    All markets, Stick sandwich: 55.6%
    All markets, Random bars: 53.8%
  • US stocks
    US stocks, Stick sandwich: 55.7%
    US stocks, Random bars: 53.8%
  • ETFs
    ETFs, Stick sandwich: 61.4%
    ETFs, Random bars: 56.3%
2:1 trade hit its targetStick sandwich tradeSame trade, random dates
  • All markets
    All markets, Stick sandwich trade: 39.2%
    All markets, Same trade, random dates: 34.9%
  • US stocks
    US stocks, Stick sandwich trade: 40.5%
    US stocks, Same trade, random dates: 34.8%
All statistics

Full results for the stick sandwich candlestick pattern, market by market

Every occurrence our rule finds on full price history, compared with what the same assets did on random bars. A pattern only earns an edge if it beats random entries after correcting for the thousands of tests we run.

Our verdict

Not a reliable signal on its own here. Use it as context, not as a trigger.

10-bar move No clear edge2:1 trade No clear edge

Stick sandwich: 1,148 occurrences tested

Bullish pattern · All markets · Daily · 771 assets · 1976-03 to 2026-10

Moved the expected way after 10 bars
55.6%
vs 53.8% on random bars
Excess return vs its market, 10 bars
−0.005%
95% interval −0.42% to +0.44%
its market−3%+3%
2:1 trade hit the target
39.2%
vs 34.9% for the same trade on random dates
Average result per trade
+0.17 R
vs +0.05 R on random dates

What this means. No measurable difference from the rest of its market over the next 10 bars.

Timeline

Entry triggered, after the pattern
2 days · middle half 1 to 3 · on 316 triggered entries
Stop order beyond the pattern's extreme.
Time to the 2:1 target, when hit
12 days · middle half 6 to 21 · on 124 trades that hit it
Time to the stop, when hit
5 days · middle half 2 to 11 · on 192 trades that hit it
Time in the trade, all exits
7 days · middle half 2 to 15 · on 316 trades

Size and trade path

Pattern range, high to low
4.1% · middle half 2.9% to 5.9% · on 1,148 occurrences
Range vs average bar (ATR)
1.29× · middle half 1.08× to 1.51× · on 1,148 occurrences
Best open profit during the trade
1.21 R · middle half 0.29 R to 2.11 R · on 316 trades
Stopped trades that were first up 1 R
24.5% · on 192 stopped trades
Trades a stop moved to breakeven at +1 R would have closed flat instead of at a loss
Entry order triggered
27.5% · on 1,148 occurrences

Medians, each on the cases named on its line; "middle half" spans the 25th to 75th percentile; no value under 30 cases.

How we detect it. After a downtrend: a black candle, a white candle trading above the first close, then a black candle closing at the first close. Candlestick counts are not checked against planted examples, so they may not be exhaustive.

All measurements (15 rows)

10-bar move: did price go the expected way?

Figures in gray: fewer than 30 occurrences, not interpreted. Excess return is signed so that positive favors the pattern. The test uses the bootstrap’s standard error and the interval its percentiles: near the 0.05 line, or on a few extreme moves, an interval can leave out zero while the test does not pass, and the test decides. Stock data misses most delisted companies, a survivorship bias we have not sized, which can flatter stock rows.
MarketOccurrencesPatternRandom barsExcess10-bar move verdict
Crypto · 1-hour68352.7%47.9%+0.32%No clear edge
Crypto · 4-hour6855.9%47.4%−0.05%No clear edge
Crypto · Daily1625.0%42.3%−3.12%Not enough data
US stocks · Daily1,04955.7%53.8%+0.05%No clear edge
ETFs · Daily4461.4%56.3%+0.25%No clear edge
Indices · Daily2268.2%55.9%+0.33%Not enough data
Forex · Daily425.0%47.4%−0.47%Not enough data
Commodities · Daily1353.8%53.1%−1.70%Not enough data
All markets · Daily1,14855.6%53.8%−0.005%No clear edge
US stocks · Weekly10268.6%56.6%+1.28%No clear edge
ETFs · Weekly785.7%63.5%−1.76%Not enough data
Indices · Weekly540.0%61.1%−3.15%Not enough data
Forex · Weekly10.0%55.9%−0.05%Not enough data
Commodities · Weekly366.7%51.1%+2.10%Not enough data
All markets · Weekly11867.8%57.0%+0.92%No clear edge

2:1 trade: target hit and average result

R = initial risk of the trade. Entry by an order at the trigger level, filled at the open when a bar opens beyond it. Exit at the stop or the target, or at the open when a bar opens beyond either one; otherwise at the close after 100 bars. When one bar touches both the stop and the target, the loss is counted. No fees or slippage. n/a = not measured. Per trade: average result, against the same trade on random dates. Figures in gray: fewer than 30 closed trades, not interpreted.
MarketTradesTarget hitSame trade, random datesPer trade2:1 trade verdict
Crypto · 1-hour20923.4%32.8%−0.28 R vs −0.02 RNo clear edge
Crypto · 4-hour1822.2%23.3%−0.29 R vs −0.30 RNot enough data
Crypto · Daily40.0%25.0%−1.00 R vs −0.25 RNot enough data
US stocks · Daily28940.5%34.8%+0.20 R vs +0.05 RNo clear edge
ETFs · Daily1540.0%31.9%+0.22 R vs +0.02 RNot enough data
Indices · Daily616.7%56.7%−0.57 R vs +0.67 RNot enough data
Forex · Daily10.0%n/a−1.00 R vs n/aNot enough data
Commodities · Daily10.0%0.0%−1.00 R vs −1.00 RNot enough data
All markets · Daily31639.2%34.9%+0.17 R vs +0.05 RNo clear edge
US stocks · Weekly3537.1%32.6%+0.11 R vs −0.03 RNo clear edge
ETFs · Weekly10.0%66.7%−1.00 R vs +1.00 RNot enough data
Indices · Weekly40.0%50.0%−1.00 R vs +0.50 RNot enough data
Forex · Weekly0n/an/an/a vs n/aNot enough data
Commodities · Weekly10.0%100.0%−1.00 R vs +2.00 RNot enough data
All markets · Weekly4131.7%38.3%−0.05 R vs +0.14 RNo clear edge

Data updated November 5, 2026 · code version c2a1683f · Read the methodology. We measure every pattern on crypto and forex (1-hour, 4-hour, daily and weekly charts) and US stocks, ETFs, indices and commodities (daily and weekly charts). On 1-hour and 4-hour forex charts the pattern only forms at the weekly open, across the weekend gap, so we do not publish those forex rows. Any other market or timeframe from that list missing from the tables above had no occurrence.

What you often read

“The stick sandwich candlestick pattern is a reliable bullish reversal signal.”

What our data shows

On 1,148 daily occurrences, it moved in the expected direction 55.6% of the time, against 53.8% for random bars: no clear edge, since the average excess return is not statistically significant.

Table quoted in the text (verdicts and every market: see All measurements)
Market and timeframeOccurrencesUp 10 bars laterRandom bars2:1 target hit (trades)Same setup, random datesExpectancy (random)Trade verdict
All markets, daily1,14855.6%53.8%39.2% (316)34.9%+0.17 R (+0.05 R)No clear edge
US stocks, daily1,04955.7%53.8%40.5% (289)34.8%+0.20 R (+0.05 R)No clear edge
ETFs, daily4461.4%56.3%40.0% (15)31.9%+0.22 R (+0.02 R)Not enough data
All markets, weekly11867.8%57.0%31.7% (41)38.3%−0.05 R (+0.14 R)No clear edge
Crypto, hourly68352.7%47.9%23.4% (209)32.8%−0.28 R (−0.02 R)No clear edge
Crypto, 4-hour6855.9%47.4%22.2% (18)23.3%−0.29 R (−0.30 R)Not enough data

How to read the table

Read the columns in pairs. On US shares, 55.7% of occurrences were up 10 sessions later, against 53.8% of random sessions on the same shares. The excess return over the rest of the market after 10 sessions is +0.05%, with a 95% confidence interval from −0.38% to +0.44%. Zero is inside the interval: on direction alone, there is no clear edge.

The trade shows a larger raw gap. Among the 289 entries, 40.5% reached the 2:1 target, against 34.8% for the same entry, stop and target distances replayed on random dates: an expectancy of +0.20 R per trade against +0.05 R, before costs. The gap does not pass even a simple test (p = 0.43), far from surviving our correction for the thousands of tests we run, so we do not count it as an edge. Our stock data also misses most delisted companies, a survivorship bias we have not sized.

Historical win rates in context

Across all markets, a 39.2% hit rate sounds weak, but with a 2:1 target the break-even point is about 33%. Fees and slippage come on top. On hourly crypto, price was up 10 bars later a little more often than at random (52.7% against 47.9%, while the average excess return is rated no clear edge), yet the 2:1 trade did worse than random dates (23.4% against 32.8%) and its expectancy stayed negative at −0.28 R: a better direction is not the same as a profitable trade.

Expected duration of the move

The move takes time to show: 51.7% of occurrences were up one session later (against 50.5% at random), 52.9% after 5 (52.6%), and 57.3% after 20 (54.9%). These horizon splits are descriptive.

Does the long-term context matter?

We split occurrences by the 200-day moving average. Under it, the 2:1 target was hit 42.4% of the time (+0.30 R); over it, 33.3% (−0.09 R). The setup did a little better when price was below its long-term average. This split is descriptive.

The method is published in our methodology.

Common mistakes to avoid

Trading against the primary trend

It only exists after a decline. During a rally, the same shape means something else.

Ignoring confirmation

Overlooking volume discrepancies

In our data, trades did better with heavy activity, but in a descriptive split that we did not test, so do not reject a setup on that basis alone.

Accepting a loose match

If the third session ends clearly under the first, it is not a sandwich.

Indicators to combine with it

Classic analysis sometimes adds an oversold RSI (under 30), a positive divergence, or a touch of the lower Bollinger band. We have not tested those filters. The one we did test, the 200-day moving average, went against a with-the-trend filter: setups below the average did a little better than those above it (a descriptive split, detailed under Does the long-term context matter?).

Case studies: real market examples

The gallery in the Real examples section shows real stick sandwiches, picked by our bench (best and worst results, textbook shapes, most recent, random draws), with their actual outcome. The first two case studies below are on daily crypto charts, the third on an hourly crypto chart. Crypto on the daily timeframe is a small sample (16 occurrences), so these are illustrations, not statistics.

Example 1: the target is missed by a hair

KP3R/USDT ended a down session at 114.25 on May 16, 2022, closed up at 124.46 the next session, then closed at 112.5 on May 18: a near match, not an exact one, since the third close sits 1.5% under the first. The buy stop at the top, 137.51, was triggered the next session, with a stop at 111.5 and a 2:1 target at 189.53. On May 20, price reached 188, just short of the target, then fell back, and the stop was hit on June 11. Ten sessions after the pattern, KP3R was still 18.8% above the third close.

Example 2: canceled before a deeper fall

CELO/USDT formed one from March 4 to 6, 2023: a down session that closed at 0.673, an up session that closed at 0.689, then a down session that closed at 0.672, with a top at 0.719 and a bottom at 0.650. On March 7 it fell to 0.625, under the bottom, before ever reaching the top, so the setup was canceled without an entry. Ten sessions later, CELO was 8.9% down. Here the buy stop did its job: it kept the trader out of a falling market.

Example 3: the target is reached

On the hourly chart of FIL/USDT, the candle of 00:00 UTC on November 16, 2020 closed down at 27.4638, the next one closed up at 27.6909, and the 02:00 candle closed at 27.4632: almost the same close as the first. The buy stop at the top, 27.7601, was triggered at 07:00, with a stop at the bottom, 27.1839, and a 2:1 target at 28.9125. At 21:00 price dipped to 27.1895, a hair above the stop, then at 04:00 on November 17, 21 hours after entry, it jumped to 29.20: the target was hit, for +2 R. Ten hours after the pattern, FIL was only 0.3% above the third close: the move came later.

Tools for automatic detection

The open-source TA-Lib library has a CDLSTICKSANDWICH function, and some charting platforms let you screen for candlestick patterns or use a TradingView script written by the community. Check the definition: the tolerance for "same close" and the prior-decline test differ from one tool to another, and so does what they find.

Frequently asked questions

Is the stick sandwich a reliable indicator?

On US equities, its average result per trade was higher than on random dates, but by a gap that does not survive our correction: +0.20 R against +0.05 R before costs, with 40.5% of 2:1 targets hit against 34.8% on random dates. On direction alone, it showed no clear edge.

Does it work in all timeframes?

Not equally. On weekly charts, more setups were up 10 bars later than on random dates, but the 2:1 trade did worse than on random dates, and neither gap passes our statistical test. On hourly crypto, the expectancy was negative; the 4-hour sample is too small to read.

Can it appear in a sideways market?

The shape can, but without a prior decline it does not count. Our detection requires a prior decline.

What should I do if the pattern fails?

If the bottom breaks before the top, cancel the order. If you are in and the stop is hit, accept the loss: the floor has failed.

Summary of key points

  • After a downtrend: a bearish candle, a bullish one trading above its close, then another one closing at the same level.
  • Only 27.5% of setups triggered the buy stop; 72.4% broke their bottom first.
  • On US equities, entered trades reached the 2:1 target 40.5% of the time against 34.8% on random dates, for +0.20 R against +0.05 R per trade: a gap that does not survive our correction.
  • On direction alone, 55.6% were up 10 sessions later against 53.8% for random sessions, an average excess return of 0.00% that is not statistically significant: no clear edge.

Trading involves risk of losses, and past results do not guarantee future results. If you trade this setup, wait for the buy stop, put the stop under the bottom before entry, and size it on that distance.

About the author and the data. Written by Amaury, founder of PatternsWizard, who is passionate about finance, quantitative trading and data analysis. He built the PatternsWizard test bench, which detects each setup with published rules on full market history: crypto, forex, US stocks, ETFs, indices and commodities. Trades and win rates are compared with random bars on the same assets, excess returns with the rest of the market, with error margins and a correction for multiple testing, and the whole pipeline is checked on random-walk prices, where nothing can be predicted. Statistics on this page were generated on November 5, 2026. The full methodology explains every step.

, Founder of PatternsWizard

Passionate about finance, quantitative trading and data analysis. Amaury built the PatternsWizard test bench, which detects each pattern on full price history and measures what happened next against random entries.

Statistics on this page come from our open methodology: every occurrence our rule finds on full history, compared with chance. How we test patterns.

179 patterns testedRandom-walk self-test passed