Technical analysis research
Chart patterns, tested on real data
We look for 179 candlestick and chart patterns on full price history, then compare what happened next with random bars of the same assets and measure the excess return over the rest of the market. Real occurrences, real outcomes, and a plain verdict on each pattern.
What textbooks rarely say: for 69 of 84 chart patterns, the taught target is reached clearly less than half the time before the pattern fails (all markets pooled, daily). See every pattern
Where to look
Patterns that beat chance after all our checks: multiple-testing correction, stability over time and costs.
All markets pooled, daily10-bar excess
- Bearish stalled (deliberation)All markets, daily+0.47%
- Bearish 5-0All markets, daily+0.34%
- Bearish haramiAll markets, daily+0.18%
On one market and timeframe10-bar excess
- Bearish butterflyCrypto, 4-hour+0.98%
- Diamond topCrypto, 1-hour, downward breakouts+0.34%
- Bearish ABCDUS stocks, daily+0.20%
- Bearish harami crossUS stocks, daily+0.17%
Excess return over the rest of the market, 10 bars after the pattern, in its direction. Before fees; past behavior, not a promise. The table below uses each pattern's largest sample. Updated November 5, 2026.
- Patterns tested
- 179 178 found on our data
- Occurrences detected
- 52,032,635
- Assets, since 1970
- 2,368
- Promising or better
- 14 1 proven, 13 promising
Occurrences: what our strict rules detected on every timeframe, not every pattern that formed. These are detections, not separate events: one bar can carry several, and plain white and black candles make up 51% of the total. XABCD groups four harmonic patterns (Gartley, bat, butterfly, crab) that are also counted on their own, so it is not a separate result.
Promising: better than chance on one of our two tests, but it did not pass all our checks. It can still be luck. Promising or better: each pattern on its largest sample, by the better of our two tests, 12 on the 10-bar move (excess return over the rest of the market) and 2 on the 2:1 trade (against the same trade on random dates). A pattern that passes both counts on the 10-bar move. 2 of the 14 have undercounted samples, marked in the table. 2 of the 14 are XABCD or one of its four patterns.
Pattern statistics
For each pattern: how often price moved the expected way after 10 bars, against the same measure on random bars, the excess return over the rest of the market, and the result of a simple 2:1 reward-to-risk trade.
| Expected move, 10 bars | Verdict | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼Bearish harami | 32,568 daily | 46.5% vs 45.2% | +0.18% | −0.14 R | Proven edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Bearish ABCDAlso in Where to look | 42,682 1-hour | 53.9% vs 50.4% | +0.07% | −0.02 R | Promising 10-bar move |
| ▲Inverted hammer | 23,613 1-hour | 49.9% vs 48.2% | +0.04% | −0.35 R | Promising 10-bar move |
| ▼Bearish harami crossAlso in Where to look | 14,362 daily | 46.8% vs 45.2% | +0.16% | −0.15 R | Promising 10-bar move |
| ◆Symmetrical triangledownward breakouts; upward: same verdict | 12,937 1-hour | 50.5% vs 50.6% | +0.02% | +0.11 R | Promising 2:1 trade |
| ◆Ascending right-angled broadeningdownward breakouts; upward: Opposite of the textbook | 6,788 1-hour | 48.7% vs 50.6% | +0.06% | +0.02 R | Promising 10-bar move |
| ▲Bullish doji star | 6,448 daily | 56.6% vs 53.9% | +0.31% | +0.18 R | Promising 10-bar move |
| ▼Parabolic curve | 4,949 1-hour | 51.0% vs 50.4% | +0.08% | +0.02 R | Promising 2:1 trade |
| ▼Bearish butterflyAlso in Where to look | 4,440 1-hour | 55.5% vs 50.4% | +0.13% | +0.01 R | Promising 10-bar move |
| ◆Rectangledownward breakouts; upward: No clear edge | 4,399 1-hour | 50.6% vs 50.6% | +0.14% | +0.09 R | Promising 10-bar move |
| ▼Bearish bat | 3,434 (undercounted) 1-hour | 54.3% vs 50.5% | +0.17% | +0.03 R | Promising 10-bar move |
| ▼Bearish tri-star | 551 daily | 48.4% vs 45.2% | +0.67% | −0.11 R | Promising 10-bar move |
| ▼Bearish counterattack | 262 daily | 54.6% vs 45.2% | +0.92% | −0.09 R | Promising 10-bar move |
| ▼Bearish alternate bat | 227 (undercounted) 1-hour | 59.0% vs 50.3% | +0.68% | +0.03 R | Promising 10-bar move |
| ▼Bearish 5-0Also in Where to look | 9,310 1-hour | 52.6% vs 50.4% | +0.05% | +0.02 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Bearish stalled (deliberation)Also in Where to look | 7,684 1-hour | 52.4% vs 50.2% | −0.02% | −0.15 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Diamond topupward breakouts; downward: same verdictAlso in Where to look | 1,053 daily | 54.0% vs 54.5% | +0.15% | +0.15 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Black candle | 7,207,816 1-hour | 49.4% vs 50.5% | −0.03% | −0.07 R | Opposite of the textbook 10-bar move |
| ▲White candle | 7,081,582 1-hour | 47.4% vs 48.5% | −0.04% | −0.07 R | Opposite of the textbook 10-bar move |
| ▼Short black line | 1,264,254 1-hour | 50.2% vs 50.6% | −0.04% | −0.11 R | Opposite of the textbook 10-bar move |
| ▼Long black line | 595,991 1-hour | 47.8% vs 50.5% | −0.06% | −0.04 R | Opposite of the textbook 10-bar move |
| ▲Long white line | 578,122 1-hour | 46.9% vs 48.5% | −0.06% | −0.02 R | Opposite of the textbook 10-bar move |
| ▲White closing marubozu | 549,171 1-hour | 46.3% vs 48.5% | −0.08% | −0.04 R | Opposite of the textbook 10-bar move |
| ▼Black closing marubozu | 538,337 1-hour | 47.4% vs 50.5% | −0.08% | −0.05 R | Opposite of the textbook 10-bar move |
| ▼Bearish engulfing | 252,143 1-hour | 49.4% vs 50.3% | −0.04% | −0.07 R | Opposite of the textbook 10-bar move |
| ▼Black marubozu | 231,941 1-hour | 47.2% vs 50.4% | −0.09% | −0.06 R | Opposite of the textbook 10-bar move |
| ▲White marubozu | 226,374 1-hour | 46.9% vs 48.3% | −0.08% | −0.03 R | Opposite of the textbook 10-bar move |
| ▲Bullish belt hold | 177,546 1-hour | 48.5% vs 48.3% | −0.06% | −0.01 R | Opposite of the textbook 10-bar move |
| ▼Bearish J-hook | 106,578 1-hour | 47.1% vs 50.5% | −0.05% | +0.01 R | Opposite of the textbook 10-bar move |
| ▲Bullish hikkake | 60,238 1-hour | 46.2% vs 48.5% | −0.11% | −0.02 R | Opposite of the textbook 10-bar move |
| ▼Bearish hikkake | 53,810 1-hour | 48.7% vs 50.4% | −0.07% | −0.05 R | Opposite of the textbook 10-bar move |
| ▼Bearish key reversal bar | 53,377 1-hour | 48.8% vs 50.3% | −0.05% | −0.07 R | Opposite of the textbook 10-bar move |
| ▲Three outside up | 48,507 1-hour | 47.6% vs 48.6% | −0.06% | +0.01 R | Opposite of the textbook 10-bar move |
| ▼Three outside down | 44,926 1-hour | 48.2% vs 50.3% | −0.07% | −0.02 R | Opposite of the textbook 10-bar move |
| ▼Measured move down | 43,066 1-hour | 45.5% vs 50.6% | −0.04% | −0.02 R | Opposite of the textbook 10-bar move |
| ▲Measured move up | 38,962 1-hour | 45.3% vs 48.7% | −0.13% | 0.00 R | Opposite of the textbook 10-bar move |
| ▲Ugly double bottom | 25,029 1-hour | 45.4% vs 48.6% | −0.14% | +0.02 R | Opposite of the textbook 10-bar move |
| ▲Bullish Bart Simpson | 15,940 1-hour | 44.0% vs 48.4% | −0.19% | +0.01 R | Opposite of the textbook 10-bar move |
| ▲Inverse head and shoulders | 12,722 1-hour | 46.0% vs 48.6% | −0.13% | +0.01 R | Opposite of the textbook 10-bar move |
| ▼Bearish Bart Simpson | 11,324 1-hour | 46.5% vs 50.4% | −0.12% | −0.03 R | Opposite of the textbook 10-bar move |
| ▲Double bottom | 11,028 1-hour | 47.1% vs 48.6% | −0.18% | +0.02 R | Opposite of the textbook 10-bar move |
| ▲V bottom | 6,965 1-hour | 43.0% vs 48.7% | −0.32% | −0.01 R | Opposite of the textbook 10-bar move |
| ▲Triple bottom | 3,389 1-hour | 45.1% vs 48.5% | −0.30% | −0.02 R | Opposite of the textbook 10-bar move |
| ◆Doji | 2,559,173 1-hour | n/a | n/a | −0.05 R | Worse than chance 2:1 trade |
| ◆High wave | 1,592,289 1-hour | n/a | n/a | −0.05 R | Worse than chance 2:1 trade |
| ◆Spinning top | 1,415,013 1-hour | n/a | n/a | −0.03 R | Worse than chance 2:1 trade |
| ▲Short white line | 1,223,799 1-hour | 48.2% vs 48.6% | −0.01% | −0.11 R | Worse than chance 2:1 trade |
| ▲Bullish engulfing | 269,068 1-hour | 48.3% vs 48.6% | −0.03% | −0.03 R | Weak, below chance 10-bar move |
| ◆Long-legged doji | 216,805 1-hour | n/a | n/a | −0.05 R | Worse than chance 2:1 trade |
| ▼Bearish belt hold | 171,125 1-hour | 49.9% vs 50.5% | −0.04% | −0.05 R | Weak, below chance 10-bar move |
| ◆Dragonfly doji | 111,105 1-hour | n/a | n/a | −0.10 R | Worse than chance 2:1 trade |
| ◆Gravestone doji | 108,334 1-hour | n/a | n/a | −0.10 R | Worse than chance 2:1 trade |
| ◆Rickshaw man | 97,519 1-hour | n/a | n/a | −0.06 R | Worse than chance 2:1 trade |
| ▲Above the stomach | 80,330 daily | 54.1% vs 54.2% | −0.03% | +0.13 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Bullish J-hook | 80,065 1-hour | 46.8% vs 48.8% | −0.01% | −0.02 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Bullish key reversal bar | 50,760 1-hour | 47.7% vs 48.5% | −0.04% | −0.01 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Bullish ABCD | 41,844 (undercounted) 1-hour | 51.7% vs 48.5% | +0.03% | +0.02 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Hammer | 41,583 1-hour | 49.0% vs 48.4% | −0.05% | −0.08 R | Weak, below chance 10-bar move |
| ▼Shooting star | 36,772 1-hour | 51.7% vs 50.5% | −0.02% | −0.05 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Three falling peaks | 36,112 1-hour | 48.7% vs 50.6% | +0.01% | +0.02 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Three rising valleys | 28,669 1-hour | 44.9% vs 48.7% | −0.09% | −0.03 R | Weak, below chance 10-bar move |
| ▲Takuri | 28,452 1-hour | 48.7% vs 48.4% | −0.06% | −0.09 R | Weak, below chance 10-bar move |
| ▲Bullish harami | 27,061 daily | 56.0% vs 54.0% | +0.04% | +0.11 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Hanging man | 22,962 1-hour | 51.4% vs 50.3% | −0.02% | −0.40 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Ugly double top | 20,822 1-hour | 48.1% vs 50.4% | −0.03% | −0.01 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ◆Falling channelupward breakouts; downward: No clear edge | 17,981 1-hour | 49.9% vs 48.5% | −0.04% | +0.03 R | Weak, below chance 10-bar move |
| ◆Rising channeldownward breakouts; upward: Opposite of the textbook | 16,472 1-hour | 51.0% vs 50.4% | +0.03% | +0.03 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Bullish XABCD (groups four patterns listed on their own) | 14,768 (undercounted) 1-hour | 51.2% vs 48.5% | +0.03% | 0.00 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Bearish XABCD (groups four patterns listed on their own) | 14,270 (undercounted) 1-hour | 54.0% vs 50.4% | +0.08% | −0.01 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Bullish Wolfe wave | 13,183 1-hour | 49.7% vs 48.3% | −0.05% | −0.06 R | Weak, below chance 10-bar move |
| ▲Breakaway gap up | 12,273 daily | 55.1% vs 54.2% | −0.01% | +0.24 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Bump-and-run reversal top | 12,160 1-hour | 49.0% vs 50.6% | −0.03% | 0.00 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Cradle | 11,529 1-hour | 47.6% vs 48.4% | −0.08% | +0.01 R | Weak, below chance 10-bar move |
| ▼Bearish doji star | 11,023 daily | 46.9% vs 45.1% | +0.10% | −0.20 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Bullish harami cross | 11,016 daily | 56.0% vs 53.9% | +0.18% | +0.10 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Head and shoulders | 10,873 1-hour | 47.7% vs 50.4% | −0.01% | +0.01 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Descending triangleupward breakouts; downward: Promising | 10,822 1-hour | 47.3% vs 48.4% | −0.05% | +0.06 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Breakaway gap down | 10,728 daily | 46.5% vs 45.5% | +0.20% | −0.15 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Falling wedgeupward breakouts; downward: same verdict | 10,673 1-hour | 50.4% vs 48.4% | −0.01% | +0.05 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Flat top breakout | 10,620 1-hour | 46.5% vs 48.7% | −0.05% | −0.02 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Bullish 5-0 | 10,485 1-hour | 48.6% vs 48.5% | +0.03% | +0.03 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Double top | 10,023 1-hour | 48.1% vs 50.4% | −0.01% | 0.00 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Bearish Wolfe wave | 10,021 1-hour | 51.8% vs 50.3% | −0.02% | −0.04 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Volatility contraction pattern | 9,220 daily | 54.1% vs 54.6% | +0.06% | +0.17 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲First green day | 8,779 1-hour | 44.9% vs 48.6% | +0.05% | −0.08 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Failed inverse head and shoulders | 8,561 1-hour | 47.1% vs 50.6% | −0.04% | +0.03 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Ascending triangledownward breakouts; upward: same verdict | 8,524 1-hour | 50.8% vs 50.5% | −0.03% | +0.07 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Bullish stalled | 8,401 1-hour | 50.8% vs 48.6% | +0.04% | −0.07 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Bump-and-run reversal bottom | 8,081 1-hour | 44.7% vs 48.7% | −0.16% | +0.01 R | Weak, below chance 10-bar move |
| ▼V top | 7,963 1-hour | 47.1% vs 50.5% | +0.02% | +0.02 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Pipe top | 7,840 daily | 47.0% vs 47.7% | −0.04% | −0.15 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Bullish Gartley | 7,446 (undercounted) 1-hour | 49.9% vs 48.5% | +0.03% | −0.01 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Three inside down | 7,220 daily | 46.0% vs 45.2% | +0.12% | −0.16 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Rising wedgedownward breakouts; upward: same verdict | 7,103 1-hour | 50.5% vs 50.3% | −0.01% | +0.01 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Failed head and shoulders | 7,050 1-hour | 47.2% vs 48.8% | −0.05% | +0.03 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Bearish Gartley | 6,810 (undercounted) 1-hour | 53.1% vs 50.4% | +0.03% | −0.04 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Dead cat bounce | 6,803 1-hour | 41.7% vs 50.4% | +0.005% | −0.06 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Thrusting | 6,762 daily | 45.2% vs 45.6% | −0.17% | −0.22 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Three inside up | 6,665 daily | 54.0% vs 54.2% | −0.03% | +0.09 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Inverted dead cat bounce | 6,412 daily | 51.3% vs 54.5% | −0.11% | +0.12 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Pipe bottom | 6,337 daily | 52.0% vs 54.3% | −0.08% | +0.19 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Dark cloud cover | 6,056 daily | 45.5% vs 45.2% | −0.17% | −0.21 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Bullish shark | 5,742 1-hour | 50.9% vs 48.6% | −0.001% | −0.07 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Bearish shark | 5,718 1-hour | 54.2% vs 50.5% | +0.07% | −0.05 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ◆Descending right-angled broadeningupward breakouts; downward: No clear edge | 5,341 1-hour | 46.6% vs 48.7% | −0.19% | +0.01 R | Weak, below chance 10-bar move |
| ▲Bullish butterfly | 5,031 1-hour | 52.9% vs 48.4% | +0.004% | +0.04 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Identical three crows | 4,693 1-hour | 50.7% vs 50.2% | −0.02% | +0.07 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Advance block | 4,269 1-hour | 52.1% vs 50.0% | +0.003% | −0.05 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Evening star | 4,193 daily | 46.9% vs 45.1% | +0.05% | −0.16 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Bullish cypher | 4,156 1-hour | 50.4% vs 48.6% | +0.04% | +0.01 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Bearish cypher | 3,887 1-hour | 52.4% vs 50.4% | +0.08% | −0.07 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Runaway gap up | 3,420 daily | 49.6% vs 54.7% | −0.11% | +0.03 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Triple top | 3,229 1-hour | 48.7% vs 50.3% | +0.04% | +0.02 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Piercing line | 3,206 daily | 54.3% vs 54.1% | −0.001% | +0.15 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Morning star | 3,039 daily | 55.3% vs 54.3% | +0.33% | +0.29 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Bullish bat | 2,743 (undercounted) 1-hour | 52.2% vs 48.7% | +0.03% | −0.03 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Homing pigeon | 2,432 daily | 55.5% vs 54.1% | +0.18% | +0.03 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Runaway gap down | 2,010 daily | 48.7% vs 45.8% | −0.64% | −0.09 R | Weak, below chance 10-bar move |
| ▼Bear pennantdownward breakouts; upward: Weak, below chance | 1,891 (undercounted) 1-hour | 50.1% vs 50.7% | +0.02% | +0.11 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Matching low | 1,844 daily | 53.3% vs 54.2% | +0.04% | +0.12 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Bear flagdownward breakouts; upward: same verdict | 1,736 (undercounted) 1-hour | 49.4% vs 50.7% | +0.08% | +0.04 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Diamond bottomdownward breakouts; upward: same verdict | 1,690 1-hour | 47.4% vs 50.7% | −0.02% | −0.09 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ◆Broadening formationdownward breakouts; upward: Opposite of the textbook | 1,267 (undercounted) 1-hour | 43.8% vs 50.6% | −0.01% | +0.01 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Bull flagupward breakouts; downward: same verdict | 1,245 (undercounted) 1-hour | 49.8% vs 48.8% | +0.02% | −0.03 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Inverted cup with handle | 1,218 1-hour | 47.8% vs 50.3% | −0.04% | +0.04 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Bull pennantupward breakouts; downward: same verdict | 1,192 (undercounted) 1-hour | 44.7% vs 48.8% | −0.01% | −0.09 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Cup with handle | 1,186 1-hour | 46.6% vs 48.6% | −0.20% | +0.03 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Stick sandwich | 1,148 daily | 55.6% vs 53.8% | −0.005% | +0.17 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Ascending scallop | 892 1-hour | 43.3% vs 48.6% | +0.09% | −0.04 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Bullish crab | 800 1-hour | 54.0% vs 48.5% | +0.12% | −0.07 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Bearish crab | 786 1-hour | 55.4% vs 50.4% | +0.11% | 0.00 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼On neck | 742 daily | 49.1% vs 45.8% | −0.06% | −0.14 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Rounding bottom | 728 1-hour | 41.9% vs 48.5% | +0.08% | +0.04 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Three black crows | 703 1-hour | 47.1% vs 50.3% | −0.12% | +0.04 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Three white soldiers | 685 1-hour | 47.4% vs 48.7% | −0.02% | +0.09 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼In neck | 681 daily | 47.1% vs 45.6% | −0.22% | +0.01 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Descending scallop | 675 1-hour | 43.6% vs 50.3% | −0.03% | −0.06 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Bearish three drives | 672 1-hour | 58.9% vs 50.4% | +0.30% | +0.05 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Bullish three drives | 616 1-hour | 52.4% vs 48.6% | +0.04% | +0.07 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Upside tasuki gap | 560 daily | 52.1% vs 55.0% | −0.14% | +0.17 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Rounding top | 505 1-hour | 44.0% vs 50.3% | +0.08% | +0.15 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Bullish tri-star | 389 daily | 54.5% vs 54.2% | −0.19% | +0.29 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Downside tasuki gap | 364 daily | 41.4% vs 45.3% | −0.28% | −0.50 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲High and tight flag | 304 daily | 49.0% vs 51.8% | −0.82% | +0.30 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Two crows | 300 daily | 53.0% vs 45.1% | +0.59% | −0.16 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Bearish modified hikkake | 288 daily | 45.1% vs 45.3% | −0.89% | −0.10 R | Weak, below chance 10-bar move |
| ▼Bearish island reversal | 262 daily | 43.5% vs 45.1% | −0.19% | −0.33 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Bullish modified hikkake | 260 1-hour | 50.4% vs 48.4% | +1.50% | +0.22 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Up-gap side-by-side white lines | 249 daily | 56.5% vs 55.0% | −0.47% | +0.09 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Bullish separating lines | 240 daily | 56.5% vs 54.7% | +0.01% | +0.26 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Bullish island reversal | 221 daily | 57.9% vs 55.0% | +0.33% | +0.23 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Bullish three-line strike | 221 daily | 52.0% vs 54.0% | −0.13% | +0.36 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Horn bottom | 212 daily | 54.7% vs 53.5% | −0.71% | +0.18 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Bullish counterattack | 206 daily | 55.3% vs 54.6% | +0.50% | +0.12 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Horn top | 183 daily | 51.1% vs 48.8% | −2.34% | −0.39 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Bearish three-line strike | 158 daily | 45.6% vs 46.4% | +0.80% | −0.30 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Cat ears | 157 (undercounted) daily | 43.2% vs 46.7% | +0.63% | −0.27 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Bearish separating lines | 148 daily | 42.6% vs 45.2% | +0.41% | −0.24 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Bullish alternate bat | 132 (undercounted) 1-hour | 60.6% vs 48.6% | +0.10% | +0.19 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Rising three methods | 108 daily | 50.5% vs 53.2% | −0.13% | −0.07 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Bearish breakaway | 104 daily | 33.7% vs 45.0% | −0.46% | −0.54 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Extended V top (unverified) | 99 1-hour | 44.4% vs 50.9% | +0.22% | −0.10 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Unique three river | 97 daily | 60.8% vs 53.8% | +1.25% | +0.07 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Ladder top | 86 daily | 47.7% vs 45.1% | +0.76% | +0.16 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Falling three methods | 82 daily | 49.4% vs 47.0% | +0.38% | −0.10 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Extended V bottom (unverified) | 82 1-hour | 50.0% vs 48.6% | −0.69% | −0.09 R | Weak, below chance 10-bar move |
| ▼Downside gap three methods | 67 daily | 53.0% vs 45.0% | −1.98% | +0.09 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Bullish breakaway | 62 daily | 64.5% vs 54.7% | +0.65% | +0.23 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Upside gap three methods | 56 daily | 53.6% vs 54.4% | +3.09% | −0.27 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Ladder bottom | 44 daily | 54.5% vs 54.3% | +1.23% | −0.27 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▲Mat hold | 36 daily | 55.6% vs 54.6% | −0.62% | −0.29 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Upside gap two crows | 34 daily | 47.1% vs 44.9% | +1.18% | −0.16 R | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| ▼Bearish kicking (unverified) | 22 daily | 40.9% vs 45.9% | −1.79% | −0.94 R | Not enough data 10-bar move |
| ▼Bearish abandoned baby | 21 daily | 47.6% vs 45.7% | +1.54% | +0.57 R | Not enough data 10-bar move |
| ▲Bullish abandoned baby | 20 daily | 60.0% vs 55.1% | −1.24% | +0.18 R | Not enough data 10-bar move |
| ▼Down-gap side-by-side white lines | 15 daily | 40.0% vs 45.0% | −1.71% | +0.43 R | Not enough data 10-bar move |
| ▲Bullish kicking | 14 daily | 57.1% vs 54.4% | +1.99% | +0.29 R | Not enough data 10-bar move |
| ▲Three stars in the south (unverified) | 5 Crypto, 1-hour | 60.0% vs 48.4% | +1.19% | +0.38 R | Not enough data 10-bar move |
Promising: better than chance on one of our two tests, but it did not pass all our checks. It can still be luck. * Undercounted: the count is what our strict rule detected, not every occurrence that formed. † Unverified: the detection was checked on too few cases to be confirmed, so read the whole line with caution. ‡ XABCD groups four harmonic patterns (Gartley, bat, butterfly, crab) that are also counted on their own, so it is not a separate result.
How we test patterns
The same method for every pattern, every market and every timeframe, with its rules and its results published.
Full history
All the history available, cleaned of bad bars. Crypto includes delisted pairs; stocks can miss tickers that disappeared after a merger or bankruptcy, which can flatter stock results.
Strict rules
Each pattern is a written geometric rule, applied only to information known at the time of the signal.
Against chance
How often a pattern moved the expected way is compared with random bars of the same asset. The verdict tests the excess return over the rest of the market, and each trade is compared with the same trade on random dates.
The bar for proof
Thousands of tests produce false positives. To count as proven, a result must survive a correction for the number of tests, point the same way in both halves of history and stay positive after estimated costs.
Self-check
The full pipeline runs on random-walk prices, where no pattern can work. It runs on three random seeds and has to pass before any number is published: no false edge may repeat across seeds, and there may be no more false edges than chance allows. The current run finds one, on a single seed. Weak signals turn up there too, which is why Promising is not proof.
Results are before fees and slippage; only the proven verdict deducts estimated costs. Synthetic recall, the share of planted patterns a rule finds, was measured on chart and harmonic patterns only: candlestick counts come from fixed rules and may miss genuine cases. Fewer than 30 occurrences, or fewer than 30 closed trades for the 2:1 trade: numbers are shown but not interpreted.
Browse patterns
Candlestick patterns
Formations of one candle or a few: hammers, engulfing patterns, stars, dojis.
65 guides
Chart patterns
Classic shapes drawn from swing points: triangles, wedges, head and shoulders.
20 guides
Harmonic patterns
Fibonacci-based structures: Gartley, bat, butterfly, crab.
11 guides
All pattern guides
The three families above and the setups outside them, on one page.
105 guides
Guides
Beyond patterns: indicators, trading concepts, options, chart types, the traders behind them, trading psychology, asset classes and reviews.
Indicators
Moving averages, oscillators, volatility and volume tools: formulas and how traders read them.
83 guides
Trading concepts
Market mechanics, risk and the vocabulary every trader meets.
95 guides
Options
The Greeks, spreads, straddles and the other strategies built from calls and puts.
19 guides
Chart types
Heikin Ashi, Renko, point and figure, raindrop and other ways to draw price.
7 guides
Famous traders
Well-known traders and investors, from Jesse Livermore to the Turtle Traders, and how they traded.
14 guides
Trading psychology
Fear and greed, patience and discipline, overtrading, affirmations and trading quotes.
5 guides
Asset classes
Stocks from blue chips to penny stocks and low-float shares, and currencies from fiat money to the forex market.
6 guides
Reviews
Trading books, courses, software, services and hardware, checked against official pages and dated; none is a hands-on test.
30 guides
Who writes these pages and how they are checked: about PatternsWizard.