How we tested this pattern
- Sample
- 511 occurrences on 6 markets (crypto, forex, US stocks, ETFs, indices and commodities), 1982 to 2026.
- Detection
- Found by code, never picked by hand: every match of the rule on full price history, winners and losers alike.bullish modified hikkake pattern: After a downtrend: a context bar; an inside bar closing near its low; a second inside bar; a bar breaking below it; within 3 bars, a close above the first inside-bar high. Dated at the confirming close.bearish modified hikkake pattern: After an uptrend: a context bar; an inside bar closing near its high; a second inside bar; a bar breaking above it; within 3 bars, a close below the first inside-bar low. Dated at the confirming close.
- Benchmark
- Each occurrence is compared with the same assets on random bars: the move 10 bars later, and a 2:1 reward-to-risk trade.
- Checks
- Block bootstrap and a correction for the thousands of tests we run, plus a random-walk self-test that the bench passes: on random prices, no pattern should win.
- Updated
- Data updated November 5, 2026, code version c2a1683f. Read the methodology · bullish modified hikkake pattern data (JSON) · bearish modified hikkake pattern data (JSON)
At a glance: what textbooks say, what we measured
- Pattern
- Bullish modified hikkake
- Occurrences tested
- 223 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Textbook: price should rise after it
- Too close to call · −0.03% vs the market, 10 bars
- Where it did best, US stocks left out
- Crypto, 1-hour: +0.31 R 2:1 trade vs random dates, not proven
- Verdict
- 10-bar move: No clear edge2:1 trade: No clear edge
- Pattern
- Bearish modified hikkake
- Occurrences tested
- 288 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Textbook: price should fall after it
- Too close to call · −0.89% vs the market, 10 bars
- Where it did best
- US stocks, daily: +0.11 R 2:1 trade vs random dates, not proven
- Verdict
- 10-bar move: Weak, below chance2:1 trade: No clear edge
On this page
- What is the modified hikkake candlestick pattern?
- The standard hikkake setup in brief
- Key differences between standard and modified hikkake
- How to identify the modified hikkake pattern
- Bullish modified hikkake vs. bearish modified hikkake
- Psychology behind the modified hikkake
- Trading strategies and risk management
- Common mistakes to avoid
- Success rate and limitations
- Real examples of the modified hikkake
- Modified hikkake indicator and scanning tools
- FAQ: the modified hikkake candlestick pattern
- Summary
The modified hikkake candlestick pattern is a stricter version of the hikkake: a false breakout of an inside bar, preceded by a first inside bar that closes near one end of its range. When price breaks out on one side and then closes back through the other side within three bars, the hikkake reading treats the move as a trap and trades it as a reversal.
This guide explains the rules step by step, the difference with the standard hikkake, how to set the entry, stop and target, and what actually happened after the pattern. Our test bench scanned full price history with a strict version of the rules and detected 223 bullish and 288 bearish ones on daily charts alone, and compared the outcome with random bars on the same assets.
What is the modified hikkake candlestick pattern?
The modified hikkake is a price pattern built on a failed breakout, with an extra filter before the breakout. The hikkake was named and described by Daniel L. Chesler. Hikkake is a Japanese word translated as to trick or ensnare: the first breakout is the trick, and the traders who follow it are the ones caught.
It is not one of the classic Japanese candlestick patterns. It works the same on bar charts and candlestick charts, and the color of each candle does not matter: only the highs, the lows and the closes count.
The modified version adds two conditions to the standard setup: a second, nested inside bar, and a close of the first inside bar near its low (bullish version) or near its high (bearish version). The idea is that this close makes the breakout in the wrong direction look more convincing, so more traders get caught. Our bench tests it as a reversal pattern only, not as a continuation signal.
The standard hikkake setup in brief
The hikkake pattern has three parts, and the modified version keeps all of them.
The inside bar formation
An inside bar has a high below the high of the bar before it and a low above that bar's low. It shows a pause: the range contracts and volatility falls. The bar before it is called the mother bar.
The false breakout signal
The next bar breaks out of the inside bar on one side only. For a bullish hikkake, it makes a lower high and a lower low. For a bearish hikkake, it makes a higher high and a higher low.
The confirmation
Within the next three bars, price must close back through the opposite side of the inside bar. Without that close, there is no pattern: the breakout simply worked.
Key differences between standard and modified hikkake
| Feature | Standard hikkake | Modified hikkake |
|---|---|---|
| Bars before the false breakout | Mother bar and one inside bar | Context bar, a first inside bar and a second inside bar |
| Close of the first inside bar | Any | Near its low (bullish) or near its high (bearish) |
| Confirmation level in our bench | High or low of the inside bar | High or low of the first inside bar |
| Daily occurrences on our bench (bullish) | 27,413 | 223 |
| Frequency on daily charts (bullish) | One every 309 bars | One every 37,675 bars |
The extra conditions make the modified hikkake far rarer, as the last two rows show. Whether they make it better is the question we answer in the reliability section.
How to identify the modified hikkake pattern
Read the pattern from left to right. Our bench applies the rules below without judgment, with one choice worth knowing: the bullish version must follow a downtrend and the bearish one an uptrend.
- Context barcontains the first inside bar
- First inside barcloses near its low
- Second inside barinside the first
- False breaklower high and lower low
- Confirming closeabove the first inside-bar high, within 3 bars
- Context barcontains the first inside bar
- First inside barcloses near its high
- Second inside barinside the first
- False breakhigher high and higher low
- Confirming closebelow the first inside-bar low, within 3 bars
Step 1: the context bar and the first inside bar
Find a candle, the context bar, followed by an inside bar: lower high and higher low than the context bar. For a bullish setup this inside bar closes near its low, in the bottom fifth of its range in our rules; for a bearish setup it closes near its high, in the top fifth. This close is what the modified version adds.
Step 2: the second inside bar
The next candle is again inside the previous one. Our bench, like the open-source TA-Lib function CDLHIKKAKEMOD, puts the close condition on the first inside bar, not on this one, the last bar before the false breakout. Our full rule is stricter than that function: it finds 11% of the cases TA-Lib flags, in both directions, so a good part of the rarity reported below comes from that strictness.
Step 3: validating the false breakout
The following candle breaks out of the second inside bar on one side only: a lower high and lower low for the bullish version, a higher high and higher low for the bearish version.
Step 4: confirming the entry signal
Within three bars, a close above the high of the first inside bar confirms a bullish modified hikkake; a close below its low confirms a bearish one. The pattern is dated at that confirming close. The chart below is a schematic drawn from the rule, not a measured shape, with the lines of the trade we test.
Bullish modified hikkake vs. bearish modified hikkake
Bullish setup identification
After a decline: a context bar, two nested inside bars, the first one closing near its low, then a breakdown candle with a lower high and a lower low, then a close above the high of the first inside bar. The traders who sold the breakdown are trapped.
Bearish setup identification
After a rally: the same structure upside down. The first inside bar closes near its high, the second stays inside it, the next bar makes a higher high and a higher low, then price closes below the low of the first inside bar.
Psychology behind the modified hikkake
Two inside candles in a row show a market that contracts. When the first of them closes at its low, traders who expect a breakdown place sell orders below the inside bars. The breakdown comes, they sell, and then price turns around and closes above the first inside bar. Their protective buy stops add fuel to the move up.
That is a plausible story about order flow. It describes what traders hope will happen, not what happens on average. The data below says how often the trap actually worked.
Trading strategies and risk management
The classic way to trade the modified hikkake follows the same logic as the standard one. This is the setup our bench simulates on every occurrence.
- Entry
- Buy stop at the pattern high
- Stop loss (SL)
- At the pattern low
- Target (TP)
- Twice the risk (2:1)
- Entry
- Sell stop at the pattern low
- Stop loss (SL)
- At the pattern high
- Target (TP)
- Twice the risk (2:1)
A clean case from our bench: US stocksChosen on its shape alone, never on the outcome. Stock prices are adjusted for splits and dividends, so they can differ from the prices quoted at the time.
A clean case from our bench: US stocksChosen on its shape alone, never on the outcome. Stock prices are adjusted for splits and dividends, so they can differ from the prices quoted at the time.
Entry rules
For a bullish signal, place a buy stop order just above the highest high of the pattern, from the context bar to the confirming close. For a bearish one, a sell stop order just below their lowest low. On daily charts, the buy stop was triggered 83.0% of the time; in 16.1% of cases price broke the other side first and the setup was canceled before any trade. The remaining setups expired: neither level was reached within 20 bars, or before the end of the data.
Setting stop loss levels
Profit taking targets
We test a fixed target at twice the risk. On daily charts, bullish trades that reached it took a median of 20 bars, and trades that were stopped took a median of 11 bars. A support or resistance level, or a trailing stop, are other options that we have not tested.
Filters to add
Two classic filters take bullish signals only near support, or only in the direction of the larger trend. We split daily bullish patterns by the 200-day moving average: above it, the 2:1 trade reached its target 31.4% of the time (+0.03 R); below it, 37.6% (+0.25 R). With high volume on the confirming bar (above 1.5 times the 20-day average, 47 cases), 29.7% (+0.01 R), against 35.2% (+0.17 R) on normal volume. These breakdowns are descriptive, not corrected for the number of tests, and the samples are small.
Common mistakes to avoid
- Trading the false breakout candle itself. Until the confirming close, the breakout is just a breakout.
- Calling any inside bar setup a modified hikkake. Without the second inside bar and the close of the first one near its low or high, it is a standard hikkake.
- Waiting more than three bars for the confirmation. After that, the trap logic no longer holds.
- Placing the stop too tight. The pattern is wide, and a stop inside it is noise.
- Expecting the extra conditions to raise the odds. In our data, they did not on the bullish side, and the bearish gap is small.
Success rate and limitations
The modified hikkake candlestick pattern showed no edge over chance that survives our correction for multiple testing, on any market or timeframe we tested. The closest is the bearish 10-bar move on daily charts, rated weak, below chance: it goes against the pattern and does not survive our correction. Here are the numbers from our bench, which compares each occurrence with random bars on the same assets.
Moved the expected way 10 bars later, compared with random bars.
Measured on 223 daily bullish modified hikkake occurrences across 211 assets. Random bars on the same assets are the honest baseline.
No clear edgeMoved the expected way 10 bars later, compared with random bars.
Measured on 288 daily bearish modified hikkake occurrences across 251 assets. Random bars on the same assets are the honest baseline.
Weak, below chanceBullish modified hikkake against random bars on the same assets, by market, on daily candles. Bars of almost the same length mean no edge.
- All markets
- US stocks
- All markets
- US stocks
Bearish modified hikkake against random bars on the same assets, by market, on daily candles. Bars of almost the same length mean no edge.
- All markets
- US stocks
- All markets
- US stocks
All statistics
Full results for the modified hikkake candlestick pattern, market by market
Every occurrence our rule finds on full price history, compared with what the same assets did on random bars. A pattern only earns an edge if it beats random entries after correcting for the thousands of tests we run.
Our verdict
Not a reliable signal on its own here. Use it as context, not as a trigger.
Bullish modified hikkake: 223 occurrences tested
Bullish pattern · All markets · Daily · 211 assets · 1984-04 to 2026-10
What this means. No measurable difference from the rest of its market over the next 10 bars.
Timeline
- Entry triggered, after the pattern
- 1 day · middle half 1 to 1 · on 185 triggered entries
- Stop order beyond the pattern's extreme. 1 of these entries is not among the 184 trades: still open at the end of our data, or left out by the trade rules.
- Time to the 2:1 target, when hit
- 20 days · middle half 12 to 32 · on 62 trades that hit it
- Time to the stop, when hit
- 11 days · middle half 5 to 26 · on 106 trades that hit it
- Time in the trade, all exits
- 18 days · middle half 7 to 34 · on 184 trades
Size and trade path
- Pattern range, high to low
- 5.8% · middle half 4.1% to 8.9% · on 223 occurrences
- Range vs average bar (ATR)
- 1.93× · middle half 1.63× to 2.38× · on 223 occurrences
- Best open profit during the trade
- 1.18 R · middle half 0.37 R to 2.09 R · on 184 trades
- Stopped trades that were first up 1 R
- 24.5% · on 106 stopped trades
- Trades a stop moved to breakeven at +1 R would have closed flat instead of at a loss
- Entry order triggered
- 83.0% · on 223 occurrences
Medians, each on the cases named on its line; "middle half" spans the 25th to 75th percentile; no value under 30 cases.
How we detect it. After a downtrend: a context bar; an inside bar closing near its low; a second inside bar; a bar breaking below it; within 3 bars, a close above the first inside-bar high. Dated at the confirming close. Candlestick counts are not checked against planted examples, so they may not be exhaustive.
All measurements (17 rows)
10-bar move: did price go the expected way?
| Market | Occurrences | Pattern | Random bars | Excess | 10-bar move verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto · 1-hour | 232 | 50.9% | 48.1% | +1.68% | No clear edge |
| Forex · 1-hour | 28 | 46.4% | 50.4% | −0.02% | Not enough data |
| All markets · 1-hour | 260 | 50.4% | 48.4% | +1.50% | No clear edge |
| Crypto · 4-hour | 71 | 43.7% | 47.2% | −0.31% | No clear edge |
| Forex · 4-hour | 27 | 51.9% | 50.0% | +0.07% | Not enough data |
| All markets · 4-hour | 98 | 45.9% | 48.0% | −0.20% | No clear edge |
| Crypto · Daily | 17 | 41.2% | 45.7% | −1.64% | Not enough data |
| US stocks · Daily | 201 | 57.8% | 54.0% | +0.13% | No clear edge |
| ETFs · Daily | 2 | 50.0% | 57.7% | −1.64% | Not enough data |
| Indices · Daily | 1 | 0.0% | 58.0% | −1.04% | Not enough data |
| Forex · Daily | 2 | 50.0% | 46.5% | −0.42% | Not enough data |
| All markets · Daily | 223 | 56.1% | 53.4% | −0.03% | No clear edge |
| Crypto · Weekly | 4 | 0.0% | 34.7% | −0.89% | Not enough data |
| US stocks · Weekly | 22 | 54.5% | 57.4% | −1.36% | Not enough data |
| ETFs · Weekly | 1 | 100.0% | 57.7% | +8.81% | Not enough data |
| Forex · Weekly | 1 | 0.0% | 50.5% | −8.91% | Not enough data |
| All markets · Weekly | 28 | 46.4% | 53.9% | −1.20% | Not enough data |
2:1 trade: target hit and average result
| Market | Trades | Target hit | Same trade, random dates | Per trade | 2:1 trade verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto · 1-hour | 193 | 40.9% | 30.3% | +0.27 R vs −0.04 R | No clear edge |
| Forex · 1-hour | 23 | 26.1% | 23.9% | −0.22 R vs −0.28 R | Not enough data |
| All markets · 1-hour | 216 | 39.4% | 29.6% | +0.22 R vs −0.06 R | No clear edge |
| Crypto · 4-hour | 54 | 38.9% | 34.4% | +0.18 R vs +0.11 R | No clear edge |
| Forex · 4-hour | 23 | 21.7% | 31.5% | −0.30 R vs +0.02 R | Not enough data |
| All markets · 4-hour | 77 | 33.8% | 33.5% | +0.04 R vs +0.08 R | No clear edge |
| Crypto · Daily | 16 | 12.5% | 29.7% | −0.10 R vs +0.11 R | Not enough data |
| US stocks · Daily | 163 | 36.8% | 34.3% | +0.17 R vs +0.03 R | No clear edge |
| ETFs · Daily | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | −0.21 R vs −1.11 R | Not enough data |
| Indices · Daily | 1 | 0.0% | 50.0% | −1.00 R vs +0.53 R | Not enough data |
| Forex · Daily | 2 | 0.0% | 16.7% | −1.00 R vs −0.50 R | Not enough data |
| All markets · Daily | 184 | 33.7% | 33.4% | +0.12 R vs +0.02 R | No clear edge |
| Crypto · Weekly | 3 | 0.0% | 36.1% | −1.00 R vs +0.08 R | Not enough data |
| US stocks · Weekly | 19 | 21.1% | 34.6% | −0.23 R vs +0.22 R | Not enough data |
| ETFs · Weekly | 1 | 100.0% | 75.0% | +2.00 R vs +1.25 R | Not enough data |
| Forex · Weekly | 1 | 0.0% | 50.0% | −1.00 R vs +0.50 R | Not enough data |
| All markets · Weekly | 24 | 20.8% | 37.2% | −0.27 R vs +0.26 R | Not enough data |
Our verdict
Weak, below chance. It does slightly worse than the baseline, but not in every check.
Bearish modified hikkake: 288 occurrences tested
Bearish pattern · All markets · Daily · 251 assets · 1982-10 to 2026-10
What this means. A difference shows up (p < 0.05), but below the baseline, and it does not survive the multiple-testing correction. For the 2:1 trade: no measurable difference from the same trade on random dates on the same assets.
Timeline
- Entry triggered, after the pattern
- 1 day · middle half 1 to 2 · on 236 triggered entries
- Stop order beyond the pattern's extreme. 1 of these entries is not among the 235 trades: still open at the end of our data, or left out by the trade rules.
- Time to the 2:1 target, when hit
- 18 days · middle half 8 to 30 · on 68 trades that hit it
- Time to the stop, when hit
- 8 days · middle half 4 to 18 · on 156 trades that hit it
- Time in the trade, all exits
- 11 days · middle half 4 to 27 · on 235 trades
Size and trade path
- Pattern range, high to low
- 5.4% · middle half 3.5% to 7.9% · on 288 occurrences
- Range vs average bar (ATR)
- 2.06× · middle half 1.69× to 2.38× · on 288 occurrences
- Best open profit during the trade
- 0.80 R · middle half 0.30 R to 2.02 R · on 235 trades
- Stopped trades that were first up 1 R
- 18.6% · on 156 stopped trades
- Trades a stop moved to breakeven at +1 R would have closed flat instead of at a loss
- Entry order triggered
- 81.9% · on 288 occurrences
Medians, each on the cases named on its line; "middle half" spans the 25th to 75th percentile; no value under 30 cases.
How we detect it. After an uptrend: a context bar; an inside bar closing near its high; a second inside bar; a bar breaking above it; within 3 bars, a close below the first inside-bar low. Dated at the confirming close. Candlestick counts are not checked against planted examples, so they may not be exhaustive.
All measurements (14 rows)
10-bar move: did price go the expected way?
| Market | Occurrences | Pattern | Random bars | Excess | 10-bar move verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto · 1-hour | 223 | 47.5% | 50.6% | −0.14% | No clear edge |
| Forex · 1-hour | 39 | 33.3% | 49.0% | −0.07% | No clear edge |
| All markets · 1-hour | 262 | 45.4% | 50.3% | −0.13% | No clear edge |
| Crypto · 4-hour | 60 | 41.7% | 51.7% | −1.64% | No clear edge |
| Forex · 4-hour | 8 | 50.0% | 49.1% | −0.10% | Not enough data |
| All markets · 4-hour | 68 | 42.6% | 51.4% | −1.46% | No clear edge |
| Crypto · Daily | 6 | 50.0% | 55.3% | −5.16% | Not enough data |
| US stocks · Daily | 262 | 45.8% | 45.4% | −0.83% | No clear edge |
| ETFs · Daily | 8 | 37.5% | 41.4% | −0.77% | Not enough data |
| Indices · Daily | 5 | 20.0% | 44.1% | +0.24% | Not enough data |
| Forex · Daily | 1 | 100.0% | 25.7% | +1.10% | Not enough data |
| Commodities · Daily | 6 | 33.3% | 40.6% | −0.89% | Not enough data |
| All markets · Daily | 288 | 45.1% | 45.3% | −0.89% | Weak, below chance |
| US stocks · Weekly | 34 | 30.3% | 42.3% | −2.20% | No clear edge |
2:1 trade: target hit and average result
| Market | Trades | Target hit | Same trade, random dates | Per trade | 2:1 trade verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto · 1-hour | 194 | 23.2% | 27.1% | −0.09 R vs −0.05 R | No clear edge |
| Forex · 1-hour | 27 | 55.6% | 26.5% | +0.67 R vs −0.18 R | Not enough data |
| All markets · 1-hour | 221 | 27.1% | 27.1% | 0.00 R vs −0.06 R | No clear edge |
| Crypto · 4-hour | 46 | 26.1% | 24.8% | −0.02 R vs −0.15 R | No clear edge |
| Forex · 4-hour | 6 | 50.0% | 25.0% | +0.50 R vs −0.25 R | Not enough data |
| All markets · 4-hour | 52 | 28.8% | 24.8% | +0.04 R vs −0.16 R | No clear edge |
| Crypto · Daily | 5 | 20.0% | 36.7% | −0.40 R vs +0.51 R | Not enough data |
| US stocks · Daily | 213 | 30.0% | 25.5% | −0.05 R vs −0.16 R | No clear edge |
| ETFs · Daily | 7 | 14.3% | 27.4% | −0.83 R vs −0.18 R | Not enough data |
| Indices · Daily | 5 | 20.0% | 33.3% | −0.36 R vs +0.07 R | Not enough data |
| Forex · Daily | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | −1.00 R vs −1.00 R | Not enough data |
| Commodities · Daily | 4 | 25.0% | 12.5% | −0.26 R vs −0.54 R | Not enough data |
| All markets · Daily | 235 | 28.9% | 25.6% | −0.10 R vs −0.15 R | No clear edge |
| US stocks · Weekly | 30 | 26.7% | 23.6% | −0.11 R vs −0.19 R | No clear edge |
Data updated November 5, 2026 · code version c2a1683f · Read the methodology. The bullish modified hikkake had no occurrence on commodities. We measure every pattern on crypto and forex (1-hour, 4-hour, daily and weekly charts) and US stocks, ETFs, indices and commodities (daily and weekly charts). A market or timeframe from that list missing from the tables above had no occurrence.
What you often read
“The bullish modified hikkake is a reliable buy signal.”
What our data shows
On 223 daily occurrences, it moved in the expected direction 56.1% of the time, against 53.4% for random bars: no clear edge, since the average excess return is not statistically significant.
What you often read
“The bearish modified hikkake is a reliable sell signal.”
What our data shows
On 288 daily occurrences, it moved in the expected direction 45.1% of the time, against 45.3% for random bars: its average excess return over the rest of the market passes a simple test but does not survive our correction.
Bullish modified hikkake
Table quoted in the text (verdicts and every market: see All measurements)
| Market and timeframe | Patterns tested | Higher 10 bars later | Random bars | Closed trades | 2:1 target hit | Same trade, random dates | Expectancy (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All markets, daily | 223 | 56.1% | 53.4% | 184 | 33.7% | 33.4% | +0.12 (random +0.02) |
| US stocks, daily | 201 | 57.8% | 54.0% | 163 | 36.8% | 34.3% | +0.17 (random +0.03) |
| Crypto, daily | 17 | 41.2% | 45.7% | 16 | 12.5% | 29.7% | −0.10 (random +0.11) |
| Crypto, hourly | 232 | 50.9% | 48.1% | 193 | 40.9% | 30.3% | +0.27 (random −0.04) |
| Crypto, 4-hour | 71 | 43.7% | 47.2% | 54 | 38.9% | 34.4% | +0.18 (random +0.11) |
| Forex, hourly | 28 | 46.4% | 50.4% | 23 | 26.1% | 23.9% | −0.22 (random −0.28) |
| All markets, weekly | 28 | 46.4% | 53.9% | 24 | 20.8% | 37.2% | −0.27 (random +0.26) |
Bearish modified hikkake
Table quoted in the text (verdicts and every market: see All measurements)
| Market and timeframe | Patterns tested | Lower 10 bars later | Random bars | Closed trades | 2:1 target hit | Same trade, random dates | Expectancy (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All markets, daily | 288 | 45.1% | 45.3% | 235 | 28.9% | 25.6% | −0.10 (random −0.15) |
| US stocks, daily | 262 | 45.8% | 45.4% | 213 | 30.0% | 25.5% | −0.05 (random −0.16) |
| Crypto, daily | 6 | 50.0% | 55.3% | 5 | 20.0% | 36.7% | −0.40 (random +0.51) |
| Crypto, hourly | 223 | 47.5% | 50.6% | 194 | 23.2% | 27.1% | −0.09 (random −0.05) |
| Crypto, 4-hour | 60 | 41.7% | 51.7% | 46 | 26.1% | 24.8% | −0.02 (random −0.15) |
| Forex, hourly | 39 | 33.3% | 49.0% | 27 | 55.6% | 26.5% | +0.67 (random −0.18) |
| US stocks, weekly | 34 | 30.3% | 42.3% | 30 | 26.7% | 23.6% | −0.11 (random −0.19) |
How to read these tables
Read each table in pairs of columns. On daily charts, 56.1% of bullish modified hikkake patterns were followed by a gain 10 days later, against 53.4% for random bars on the same assets. The excess return over the rest of the market after 10 days is −0.03%, with a 95% confidence interval from −0.85% to +0.78%: zero is inside, so no clear edge. Rows with fewer than 30 patterns or trades (crypto daily and the smaller daily markets, hourly forex on the bullish side, weekly except the bearish US stocks row, and the bearish trades on hourly forex) are shown for completeness only: they are too small to read.
The 2:1 trade gives the same answer. The daily bullish trade averaged +0.12 R per trade before costs, and the same entry, stop and target on random dates averaged +0.02 R. Our tests do not separate that gap from chance: no clear edge. On the bearish side, both the pattern and random dates lost money (−0.10 R against −0.15 R).
On hourly charts, the bearish version fell less often than random bars on both crypto (47.5% lower after 10 bars against 50.6% for random bars) and forex (33.3% against 49.0%), rated No clear edge: neither gap in average excess return over the rest of the market is statistically significant. On daily charts, the bearish version's excess return, −0.89%, goes against the pattern and passes a simple test, but does not survive our correction for the thousands of tests we run. On hourly crypto, the bullish 2:1 trade reached its target in 40.9% of 193 trades against 30.3% on random dates, a gap our tests do not separate from chance either. Compared with the standard hikkake, the extra filter did not help on the bullish side: the standard bullish hikkake reached its 2:1 target in 37.1% of 22,765 trades on daily charts, the modified one 33.7% of 184 trades, for an average result of +0.17 R and +0.12 R per trade, against +0.15 R and +0.02 R at random. On the bearish side, the modified pattern reached its target in 28.9% of trades (−0.10 R) and the standard one in 26.1% (−0.18 R), a small gap that neither row turns into an edge.
The method follows the approach of academic studies of chart patterns: compare what happens after a pattern with what happens on ordinary days, as Lo, Mamaysky and Wang did in Foundations of Technical Analysis (Journal of Finance, 2000). Our result is also consistent with Marshall, Young and Rose (Candlestick technical trading strategies: Can they create value for investors?, Journal of Banking and Finance, 2006), who found no value in candlestick strategies on US stocks. Neither study tested the hikkake itself.
Real examples of the modified hikkake
The gallery in this section shows real modified hikkake patterns picked by our bench (best and worst results, textbook shapes, most recent, random draws), with their actual outcome. The cases written up in this section are on daily crypto charts. Each example gives the levels a trader would have used.
Real occurrences from our test bench, each on its market's main timeframe. Category cards on crypto and US stocks come from liquid assets only (the largest coins, the most traded stocks). Best and Worst are the best and worst 2:1 trade results, Textbook the cleanest shapes (chosen on geometry alone, never on the outcome), Most recent the latest detections among the assets the gallery draws from, Typical a random draw. Bullish modified hikkake pattern: on indices, our bench gives a single example card, so it carries no Best, Worst or other label: it is one real occurrence, not a ranked pick. Shaded area: the pattern. Dashed lines: entry, stop loss (SL) and 2:1 target (TP) of the tested trade. Dotted line: 10 bars after the signal. A result above +2 R or below −1 R means a bar opened past the target or the stop, and the trade was closed at that open. Stock prices are adjusted for splits and dividends, so they can differ from the prices quoted at the time. We left out 19 cards: 18 with a shape that does not read as the definition on this page, 1 with a candle that is the thin first bar of the trading week. They still count in the statistics, and are not replaced: our bench picks a fixed number of cards per category.
Real occurrences The only occurrence on indices (daily charts)
A bullish modified hikkake pattern that worked
On ETH/USDT, the context bar came on March 13, 2020, in the middle of the March crash, followed by two inside bars on March 14 and 15. On March 16 price broke below them, down to 101.1. On March 19 it closed at 136.3, above the high of the first inside bar (134.68): the signal. The buy stop at 143.13 was triggered the next day, with a stop at 86 and a 2:1 target at 257.39. ETH was 8.7% lower 10 days after the signal, but it never fell back to the stop, and the trade was closed at the 100-bar limit with a gain of 1.43 R, short of the target.
A bullish signal that hit the stop
On May 15, 2024, SYS/USDT confirmed a bullish modified hikkake pattern. The buy stop at 0.2012 was triggered on May 16, with a stop at 0.179 and a target at 0.2456. Price never traded above 0.2019 and fell through the stop on May 19: a full 1 R loss. SYS was 3.3% lower 10 days after the signal.
A big move, a losing trade
On June 19, 2022, RNDR/USDT confirmed a bullish signal with a buy stop at 0.587, the top of a wide signal candle, and a stop at 0.274. The buy stop was only triggered on June 23, and RNDR was 36.3% higher 10 days after the signal. With such a wide stop, though, the 2:1 target at 1.213 was far away: price never reached it, and the trade was closed at the 100-bar limit with a loss of 0.41 R.
A bearish signal that reversed hard
On July 30, 2025, LDO/USDT confirmed a bearish modified hikkake pattern. The sell stop at 0.969 was triggered on July 31, with a stop at 1.193 and a target at 0.521. Price fell to 0.851 on August 2, then turned around and hit the stop on August 9: a full 1 R loss. LDO was 30.5% higher 10 days after the signal.
Modified hikkake indicator and scanning tools
The open-source TA-Lib library has a CDLHIKKAKEMOD function, and some charting platforms let users add scripts that mark hikkake patterns. Definitions differ: which inside bar must close near its low or high (the first one in TA-Lib and in our bench), how near, and which level confirms. Check the rules of your tool before you trust its signals, and add a prior trend condition if it has none.
FAQ: the modified hikkake candlestick pattern
Is the modified hikkake bullish or bearish?
Both versions exist. The bullish one follows a downtrend and traps sellers; the bearish one follows an uptrend and traps buyers.
Is the modified hikkake more reliable than the standard hikkake?
Not in our tests. On daily charts it was no better than random bars, and its bullish 2:1 trade did not beat the standard bullish hikkake.
How often does the modified hikkake appear?
Rarely, under our strict rule: about one bullish pattern every 37,675 daily bars and one bearish every 29,438, against one standard bullish hikkake every 309 daily bars.
Can I use it in forex and stock markets?
The rules are the same on every market. On hourly forex, of 23 bullish trades, the 2:1 target was reached 26.1% of the time, against 23.9% on random dates, too few trades to read. On daily stock charts, of 163 bullish trades, 36.8% reached it, against 34.3%. Stock data misses most delisted companies, a survivorship bias we have not sized.
Summary
- The modified hikkake adds to the standard hikkake a second inside bar and a close of the first one near its low (bullish) or high (bearish).
- Confirmation is a close back through the first inside bar within three bars of the false breakout.
- On 223 daily bullish occurrences, 56.1% were higher 10 days later, against 53.4% for random bars.
- The daily bullish 2:1 trade averaged +0.12 R before costs, against +0.02 R on random dates: no clear edge.
- Treat it as a location for a trade with a defined stop, not as a reason for one.
If you trade it, wait for the close, put the stop beyond the whole pattern, size the position on that distance, and keep the risk per trade small.
About the author and the data. Written by Amaury, founder of PatternsWizard, who is passionate about finance, quantitative trading and data analysis. He built the PatternsWizard test bench, which detects each setup with published rules on full market history: crypto, forex, US stocks, ETFs, indices and commodities. Trades and win rates are compared with random bars on the same assets, excess returns with the rest of the market, with error margins and a correction for multiple testing, and the whole pipeline is checked on random-walk prices, where nothing can be predicted. Statistics on this page were generated on November 5, 2026. The full methodology explains every step. This page is educational and is not investment advice: trading involves a risk of loss, and past results do not predict future ones.
Passionate about finance, quantitative trading and data analysis. Amaury built the PatternsWizard test bench, which detects each pattern on full price history and measures what happened next against random entries.
Statistics on this page come from our open methodology: every occurrence our rule finds on full history, compared with chance. How we test patterns.