Candlestick patterns
Bearish candlestick patterns: all 41, tested on real data
A bearish candlestick pattern is a group of one to five candles that textbooks read as a sign that sellers are taking over from buyers. After a rise, it is read as a possible turn (bearish reversal); inside a fall, as a sign the fall will go on (bearish continuation). We ran all 41 bearish patterns our test bench detects on the full price history of 2,368 assets across six markets, and compared what followed each one with what follows random bars of the same assets.
Statistics updated November 5, 2026, from the latest run of our test bench. Historical statistics before fees and slippage. Not investment advice: past results do not predict future ones.
- Bearish patterns tested
- 41
- Occurrences detected
- 10,577,174
- Beat chance after all checks
- 3
- Moved opposite to the textbook
- 9
The short answer
Only 3 of the 41 bearish candlestick patterns pass all our checks (multiple-testing correction, stability over time, costs): Bearish harami and Bearish stalled (deliberation) beat chance on all markets pooled, on daily bars; Bearish harami cross (US stocks, daily) beats it on one market and timeframe only.
Strongest result on its largest sample: Bearish harami, proven edge on the 10-bar move test, price moved the expected way within 10 bars 46.5% of the time against 45.2% for random bars (32,568 occurrences, all markets, daily). 9 patterns did the opposite of what textbooks teach: Black candle, Black closing marubozu, Bearish engulfing, Bearish hikkake, Bearish key reversal bar, Long black line, Black marubozu, Short black line and Three outside down.
A bearish candle pattern alone is not a reason to sell: on our data, most of them are followed by about the same moves as any random bar. Use them as a trigger inside a plan (trend, level, stop), not as a forecast.
The 10 best-known bearish candlestick patterns, checked against random bars
These are the patterns every textbook and cheat sheet starts with. Each line gives our verdict and how often price moved the way the pattern predicts within 10 bars, next to the same rate for random bars of the same assets. The gap between the two percentages is what the pattern adds; when it is small, the pattern mostly describes what the market was already doing.
| Pattern | Expected move within 10 bars | Random bars | Occurrences | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting star | 51.7% | 50.5% | 36,772 all markets, 1-hour | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| Bearish engulfing | 49.4% | 50.3% | 252,143 all markets, 1-hour | Opposite of the textbook 10-bar move |
| Evening star | 46.9% | 45.1% | 4,193 all markets, daily | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| Dark cloud cover | 45.5% | 45.2% | 6,056 all markets, daily | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| Three black crows | 47.1% | 50.3% | 703 all markets, 1-hour | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| Hanging man | 51.4% | 50.3% | 22,962 all markets, 1-hour | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| Bearish harami | 46.5% | 45.2% | 32,568 all markets, daily | Proven edge 10-bar move |
| Three inside down | 46.0% | 45.2% | 7,220 all markets, daily | No clear edge 10-bar move |
| Bearish abandoned baby | 47.6% | 45.7% | 21 all markets, daily | Not enough data 10-bar move |
| Falling three methods | 49.4% | 47.0% | 82 all markets, daily | No clear edge 10-bar move |
Bearish reversal candlestick patterns 27
Patterns that call the end of a rise. Our rules require a prior rise for 25 of these 27, as textbooks do: without it, there is nothing to reverse. See also our guide to reversal candlestick patterns.
- Bearish haramiProven edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 46.5% vs 45.2% at randomBeats chance after all our checks: All markets, daily32,568 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Bearish harami crossPromising 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 46.8% vs 45.2% at randomBeats chance after all our checks: US stocks, daily14,362 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Bearish tri-starPromising 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 48.4% vs 45.2% at random551 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Bearish counterattackPromising 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 54.6% vs 45.2% at random262 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Bearish stalled (deliberation)No clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 52.4% vs 50.2% at randomBeats chance after all our checks: All markets, daily7,684 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
- Bearish engulfingOpposite of the textbook 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 49.4% vs 50.3% at random252,143 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
- Bearish hikkakeOpposite of the textbook 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 48.7% vs 50.4% at random53,810 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
- Bearish key reversal barOpposite of the textbook 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 48.8% vs 50.3% at random53,377 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
- Three outside downOpposite of the textbook 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 48.2% vs 50.3% at random44,926 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
- Bearish belt holdWeak, below chance 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 49.9% vs 50.5% at random171,125 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
- Shooting starNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 51.7% vs 50.5% at random36,772 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
- Hanging manNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 51.4% vs 50.3% at random22,962 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
- Bearish doji starNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 46.9% vs 45.1% at random11,023 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Three inside downNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 46.0% vs 45.2% at random7,220 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Dark cloud coverNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 45.5% vs 45.2% at random6,056 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Identical three crowsNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 50.7% vs 50.2% at random4,693 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
- Advance blockNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 52.1% vs 50.0% at random4,269 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
- Evening starNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 46.9% vs 45.1% at random4,193 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Three black crowsNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 47.1% vs 50.3% at random703 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
- Two crowsNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 53.0% vs 45.1% at random300 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Bearish modified hikkakeWeak, below chance 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 45.1% vs 45.3% at random288 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Bearish island reversalNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 43.5% vs 45.1% at random262 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Bearish breakawayNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 33.7% vs 45.0% at random104 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Ladder topNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 47.7% vs 45.1% at random86 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Upside gap two crowsNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 47.1% vs 44.9% at random34 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Bearish kicking (unverified)Not enough data 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 40.9% vs 45.9% at random22 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Bearish abandoned babyNot enough data 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 47.6% vs 45.7% at random21 occurrences, all markets, daily
Bearish continuation candlestick patterns 9
Patterns that call a pause inside a fall, then more of the same. They appear less often than reversal patterns. More in continuation patterns, tested.
- ThrustingNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 45.2% vs 45.6% at random6,762 occurrences, all markets, daily
- On neckNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 49.1% vs 45.8% at random742 occurrences, all markets, daily
- In neckNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 47.1% vs 45.6% at random681 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Downside tasuki gapNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 41.4% vs 45.3% at random364 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Bearish three-line strikeNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 45.6% vs 46.4% at random158 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Bearish separating linesNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 42.6% vs 45.2% at random148 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Falling three methodsNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 49.4% vs 47.0% at random82 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Downside gap three methodsNo clear edge 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 53.0% vs 45.0% at random67 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Down-gap side-by-side white linesNot enough data 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 40.0% vs 45.0% at random15 occurrences, all markets, daily
Single bearish candles 5
Single candles with a black (red) body, such as the marubozu. Textbooks give them a bearish reading, but they are so frequent that what follows them is mostly the market itself, and several moved the other way (cards below).
- Black candleOpposite of the textbook 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 49.4% vs 50.5% at random7,207,816 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
- Short black lineOpposite of the textbook 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 50.2% vs 50.6% at random1,264,254 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
- Long black lineOpposite of the textbook 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 47.8% vs 50.5% at random595,991 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
- Black closing marubozuOpposite of the textbook 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 47.4% vs 50.5% at random538,337 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
- Black marubozuOpposite of the textbook 10-bar moveExpected move after 10 bars: 47.2% vs 50.4% at random231,941 occurrences, all markets, 1-hour
Each card: the shape, our verdict on the pattern's largest sample, and how often price moved the expected way within 10 bars against random bars of the same assets. A green border marks a pattern that beats chance after all our checks, on the scope named on the card. Promising: better than chance on one of our two tests, but it did not pass all our checks. It can still be luck. * Undercounted: the count is what our strict rule detected, not every occurrence that formed. †Unverified: the detection was checked on too few cases to be confirmed, so read the whole line with caution. ‡ XABCD groups four harmonic patterns (Gartley, bat, butterfly, crab) that are also counted on their own, so it is not a separate result. Before fees; past behavior, not a promise.
How to trade a bearish candlestick pattern without fooling yourself
- Check the context first. A bearish reversal pattern only means something after a rise, ideally at a level where sellers have stepped in before (support turned resistance, a prior high, a round number). The same candles in the middle of a range say very little.
- Wait for the trigger. Our 2:1 trade test enters only if price breaks the pattern's low within 20 bars, with a stop at its high and a target at twice the risk. Many patterns are never triggered, and that filter alone keeps you out of a share of the failures.
- Place the stop where the pattern is wrong. If price goes back above the high of the pattern, the sellers who printed it have lost. A stop there keeps each loss to a known size.
- Judge it against chance, not against memory. On our data, a random bar was followed by a fall within 10 bars about 45.7% of the time (median over these patterns' samples). A pattern that "works" that often adds nothing.
- Do not trust the famous names blindly. The shooting star and the bearish engulfing are in every list: shooting star, no clear edge; bearish engulfing, opposite of the textbook (largest samples, cards below).
How we tested
Each pattern is a strict written rule, run on the full price history of 2,368 assets across six markets, using only what was known at the time. What followed each occurrence is compared with what follows random bars of the same assets, on two tests: the move over the next 10 bars against the rest of the market, and a 2:1 trade against the same trade on random dates. A result only counts once it survives a correction for the thousands of tests we run, holds in both halves of the history and outlasts estimated costs. The whole pipeline first runs on random-walk prices, where no pattern can work. Method and data: the full study and open data.