The identical three crows candlestick pattern is a variant of the three black crows with a stricter rule on the opens: three long black (bearish) candles after an uptrend, each closing lower, where each candle opens exactly at the close of the one before. There is no bounce at the open of any session. It is traditionally read as a strong bearish reversal warning: sellers take control and keep it for three sessions in a row.

This guide covers the definition, how to identify the identical three crows on a candlestick chart, how to use it in a trading strategy, and how it differs from the standard three black crows pattern. It also shows what actually happened next. Our test bench detected 420 identical three crows on daily charts and 4,693 on hourly charts across stocks, crypto, forex, ETFs, indices and commodities, and compared each one with random bars on the same assets.

What is the identical three crows candlestick pattern?

The identical three crows is a three-candle bearish reversal pattern. It forms at the top of an uptrend, when three strong down sessions in a row erase part of the rise. It belongs to the family of the three black crows, and the word "identical" refers to the open of each candle: it sits at the same level as the previous close, so the three bodies follow each other like steps on a staircase.

Like the three black crows, the identical three crows is a bearish reversal candlestick pattern in technical analysis. Classical analysis reads it as a strong bearish signal, because each new candle starts at the exact point where the last one ended and sellers never give ground.

Definition used on our test bench

Our bench uses a rule that a computer can apply without judgment: after an uptrend (the close before the formation is at least one average true range (ATR) above the close 10 bars earlier, and in the upper half of the 40 previous closes), three long black candles, each closing lower, with the open of the second and third candles equal to the previous close. "Long" means a body more than 1.3 times the average body of the 10 prior candles and at least 0.6 times the largest of them (1.6 times the average on a textbook pattern). "Equal" means within one twentieth of the average high-to-low range of the five prior candles. Our rule differs from the TA-Lib library: on the bars compared, we find only 14% of the occurrences that library flags, so its counts and ours are not interchangeable.

Visual representation of the pattern

The chart below is not drawn by hand. It is the median shape of the identical three crows our bench detected on daily charts across all markets, with the faded candles showing the rise before the pattern, and the lines of the position we test: entry below the low of the third crow, stop loss above the high of the pattern, target at twice the risk.

Bearish setup on the median shape of 140 daily occurrences from all markets, with entry, stop loss (SL) and 2:1 target (TP)

How to identify the identical three crows

To identify the pattern on a stock chart or any other market, check five key points in order.

Black candle 1long, closes lower
Black candle 2opens at the previous close
Black candle 3opens at the previous close

Median shape of all 140 usable daily occurrences from all markets, found by our test bench.

Step 1: confirm the preceding uptrend

The identical three crows is a reversal pattern, so there must be an uptrend to reverse. The test on our bench: the last close before the first crow is at least one ATR above the close 10 bars earlier, and in the upper half of the 40 previous closes. Three black candles in a downtrend are a continuation of the bearish trend, not a reversal signal.

Step 2: three consecutive long black candles

Each of the three candles is bearish (close below open) and has a long real body compared with recent sessions. Small bodies mean hesitation, not the strong selling the pattern describes. On most platforms, a black candle is drawn in red.

Step 3: lower closes

Each candle closes below the close of the one before. Three lower closes in a row show sellers pushing price down session after session.

Step 4: each open equals the previous close

This is the rule that makes the crows identical. The second candle opens at the close of the first, and the third opens at the close of the second. In the standard three black crows, each candle may open anywhere inside the previous candle's body, which leaves room for a small rebound at the open. In the identical version, buyers get no rebound at all.

Step 5: wait for the close of the third candle

The pattern only exists at the close of the third candle. Intraday, a third black candle can still recover into the close, and the signal disappears.

The psychology behind the pattern

The story is one of persistent selling. After a rise, the first crow shows sellers taking control for a full session. On the next session, buyers do not even manage to lift price at the open: the session starts where the last one ended, and sellers push it lower again. The third session repeats the same sequence. Each session opens at the previous close, so there is no overnight hope, no gap up, no bounce: the selling simply continues, and bullish momentum fades.

That is why it is read as a stronger warning than the three black crows. The reading is plausible, but it describes three candles. Whether they change the trend is a question for data, and we come back to it in the reliability section.

Identical three crows vs. three black crows

The three black crows candlestick pattern is a bearish reversal pattern, and the identical three crows is a variant with a stricter rule on the opens. If you already trade the three black crows, the identical version will look familiar. The two share the same idea: three long bearish candles after an uptrend, each closing lower. The difference is the open.

Three black crows pattern: each candle opens inside the body of the previous one, and the TA-Lib definition adds very short lower shadows (closes near the low).
Identical three crows pattern: each candle opens at the previous close, with no rule on shadows in our bench.

Because the two rules differ on two points, stricter opens but no rule on shadows, the identical pattern is not a subset of the three black crows in our data. On daily charts our bench finds slightly fewer of them: 420 identical three crows (one every 20,186 bars) against 493 three black crows (one every 17,197 bars). Across all timeframes it finds far more (6,340 against 1,414), mostly on hourly and 4-hour charts, where markets that trade around the clock open almost exactly at the prior close. The results differed: the identical version reached its 2:1 target 23.9% of the time against 22.1% for the three black crows. Against their own random benchmarks (21.7% and 26.0%), neither average result per trade (−0.03 R against −0.13 R, −0.22 R against −0.14 R) differed by a margin our tests count as an edge.

Daily charts, all markets	Patterns tested (2:1 trades)	Lower 10 bars later	Random bars	2:1 target hit	Same trade, random dates	Expectancy
Identical three crows	420 (351)	52.4%	49.0%	23.9%	21.7%	−0.03 R
Three black crows	493 (448)	43.9%	45.6%	22.1%	26.0%	−0.22 R

Identical three crows vs. three white soldiers

The three white soldiers is the bullish mirror image: three long white candles after a downtrend, each closing higher. In classical candlestick references, black crows and three white soldiers are taught together, one as a bearish signal and the other as a bullish signal. There is no common "identical three soldiers" pattern in the classic references.

Which one should traders use?

In our data, neither the three black crows nor the identical variant gave a trading edge on daily charts. The identical three crows candlestick pattern is useful mainly as a clear, strict definition: it removes the judgment call on where each candle opens.

Identical three crows vs. bearish engulfing

The bearish engulfing needs only two candles: a black body that covers the previous white body. It forms far more often, and it gives a closer stop. The identical three crows needs three sessions of selling, so by the time it is complete, a large part of the move may already be done.

Related crow patterns

The two crows and the upside gap two crows are smaller cousins: a gap up followed by black candles that start to close the gap. The evening star is another common bearish reversal pattern at the top of an uptrend.

How to trade the identical three crows

The classic trading strategy sells a break below the low of the third crow, with a stop above the high of the pattern and a target set as a multiple of the risk. This is the position our bench simulates on every occurrence.

Entry: Sell stop at the pattern low
Stop loss (SL): At the pattern high
Target (TP): Twice the risk (2:1)

The trade our bench tests, drawn on the typical shape. Median shape of all 140 usable daily occurrences from all markets.

Entry point

The conservative entry point is a sell stop just below the low of the third candle. In our tests, the entry was triggered 87.1% of the time on daily charts; in 6.7% of cases price broke above the high of the pattern first and the setup was canceled. The remaining setups touched neither level within the 20 bars our test allows. The aggressive entry sells at the close of the third candle, accepting that the next day can open with a bounce. In day trading on hourly charts, the same logic applies to each bar.

Stop-loss placement

The natural stop sits above the high of the pattern, which is the high of the first crow unless a later wick went above it. If price trades back above that level, the three sessions of selling have been fully erased. This stop is wide: on daily charts, the median pattern spans 9.94% of price, or 3.31 times the average true range (ATR). Size the position on the distance from entry to stop.

Profit target

Our bench sets the target at twice the risk (2:1). Because the stop is wide, the target is far: on daily charts, trades that reached it took a median of 31 bars, and trades that were stopped took a median of 22 bars. Support levels below price, such as a prior swing low or a rising moving average, are other reasonable targets, and taking partial profit at the first support level is one option.

Risk management

Confirmation and technical indicators

The pattern alone is a thin reason to sell. Confirmation can come from other technical indicators and from the market context.

Volume

The classic reading wants rising volume on the three crows, as a sign that selling is real. On hourly crypto charts (forex data has no volume), our data gives a mixed answer: identical three crows with volume above 1.5 times the average reached the 2:1 target less often, 24.0% of the time against 25.7% on normal volume, but their average result per trade was better, +0.22 R against −0.02 R. This breakdown is descriptive and not corrected for multiple testing.

Moving averages

We also split hourly patterns by the 200-period moving average. Below it (price already in a longer-term downtrend), the 2:1 target was hit 25.8% of the time, with an expectancy of +0.14 R; above it, 21.3%, with −0.03 R. The difference is small and descriptive.

RSI and momentum

One filter is to take the pattern only when the RSI, a momentum indicator, has been overbought before the first crow. We have not tested it; if you use it, test it on your own market first.

Support and resistance levels

Classical analysis gives more weight to a pattern that forms just below a resistance level, or that breaks a clear support level, than to one in the middle of a range. We have not tested this filter. Mark the key levels on the chart before you read the candles.

Reliability of the identical three crows

The identical three crows is not a reliable bearish signal on its own: on no market or timeframe with enough data did its excess return over the rest of the market survive our correction for multiple testing. The closest, on 4-hour charts with crypto and forex combined (+0.32%), passes only a simple test and is rated promising. On daily US stocks it fell slightly less often than random bars, by a gap in average excess return that is within the margin of error. Here are the numbers.

52.4%vs 49.0% at random

Moved the expected way 10 bars later, compared with random bars.

Measured on 420 daily identical three crows occurrences across 318 assets. Random bars on the same assets are the honest baseline.

No clear edge

Identical three crows against random bars on the same assets, by market, on daily candles. Bars of almost the same length mean no edge.

Moved the expected way 10 bars laterIdentical three crowsRandom bars

All markets
All markets, Identical three crows: 52.4%
All markets, Random bars: 49.0%
Crypto
Crypto, Identical three crows: 62.4%
Crypto, Random bars: 55.5%
US stocks
US stocks, Identical three crows: 44.7%
US stocks, Random bars: 45.5%
Forex
Forex, Identical three crows: 59.2%
Forex, Random bars: 49.4%
Indices
Indices, Identical three crows: 50.0%
Indices, Random bars: 41.9%

2:1 trade hit its targetIdentical three crows tradeSame trade, random dates

All markets
All markets, Identical three crows trade: 23.9%
All markets, Same trade, random dates: 21.7%
Crypto
Crypto, Identical three crows trade: 23.8%
Crypto, Same trade, random dates: 20.6%
US stocks
US stocks, Identical three crows trade: 22.0%
US stocks, Same trade, random dates: 20.7%
Forex
Forex, Identical three crows trade: 31.8%
Forex, Same trade, random dates: 24.6%
Indices
Indices, Identical three crows trade: 25.8%
Indices, Same trade, random dates: 27.2%

All statistics

Full results for the identical three crows candlestick pattern, market by market

Every occurrence our rule finds on full price history, compared with what the same assets did on random bars. A pattern only earns an edge if it beats random entries after correcting for the thousands of tests we run.

Our verdict

Not a reliable signal on its own here. Use it as context, not as a trigger.

10-bar move No clear edge2:1 trade No clear edge

Identical three crows: 420 occurrences tested

Bearish pattern · All markets · Daily · 318 assets · 1970-10 to 2026-10

Moved the expected way after 10 bars

52.4%

vs 49.0% on random bars

Excess return vs its market, 10 bars

+0.28%

95% interval −0.59% to +1.03%

Excess return is signed so that positive favors the pattern. On a bearish setup, it means the asset lagged its market.

2:1 trade hit the target

23.9%

vs 21.7% for the same trade on random dates

Average result per trade

−0.03 R

vs −0.13 R on random dates

What this means. No measurable difference from the rest of its market over the next 10 bars.

Timeline

Entry triggered, after the pattern: 1 day · middle half 1 to 2 · on 366 triggered entries; Stop order beyond the pattern's extreme. 15 of these entries are not among the 351 trades: still open at the end of our data, or left out by the trade rules.
Time to the 2:1 target, when hit: 31 days · middle half 18 to 50 · on 84 trades that hit it
Time to the stop, when hit: 22 days · middle half 10 to 43 · on 207 trades that hit it
Time in the trade, all exits: 32 days · middle half 14 to 72 · on 351 trades

Size and trade path

Pattern range, high to low: 9.9% · middle half 5.0% to 23.7% · on 420 occurrences
Range vs average bar (ATR): 3.31× · middle half 2.88× to 3.88× · on 420 occurrences
Best open profit during the trade: 0.97 R · middle half 0.40 R to 1.94 R · on 351 trades
Stopped trades that were first up 1 R: 18.4% · on 207 stopped trades; Trades a stop moved to breakeven at +1 R would have closed flat instead of at a loss
Entry order triggered: 87.1% · on 420 occurrences

Medians, each on the cases named on its line; "middle half" spans the 25th to 75th percentile; no value under 30 cases.

How we detect it. After an uptrend: three long black candles closing lower, each opening at the previous close. A long body is at least 1.3 times the average body of the 10 candles before the pattern and at least 0.6 times the largest of them. Candlestick counts are not checked against planted examples, so they may not be exhaustive.

All measurements (19 rows)

10-bar move: did price go the expected way?

Figures in gray: fewer than 30 occurrences, not interpreted. Excess return is signed so that positive favors the pattern. The test uses the bootstrap’s standard error and the interval its percentiles: near the 0.05 line, or on a few extreme moves, an interval can leave out zero while the test does not pass, and the test decides. Stock data misses most delisted companies, a survivorship bias we have not sized, which can flatter stock rows.
Market	Occurrences	Pattern	Random bars	Excess	10-bar move verdict
Crypto · 1-hour	3,207	51.0%	50.7%	−0.03%	No clear edge
Forex · 1-hour	1,486	50.2%	49.2%	−0.01%	No clear edge
All markets · 1-hour	4,693	50.7%	50.2%	−0.02%	No clear edge
Crypto · 4-hour	891	51.3%	51.8%	+0.40%	No clear edge
Forex · 4-hour	243	49.8%	49.3%	+0.04%	No clear edge
All markets · 4-hour	1,134	51.0%	51.3%	+0.32%	Promising
Crypto · Daily	141	62.4%	55.5%	+1.61%	No clear edge
US stocks · Daily	190	44.7%	45.5%	−0.67%	No clear edge
ETFs · Daily	2	0.0%	44.5%	−1.90%	Not enough data
Indices · Daily	36	50.0%	41.9%	+0.05%	No clear edge
Forex · Daily	49	59.2%	49.4%	+0.38%	No clear edge
Commodities · Daily	2	0.0%	46.3%	+0.49%	Not enough data
All markets · Daily	420	52.4%	49.0%	+0.28%	No clear edge
Crypto · Weekly	1	0.0%	59.9%	−22.63%	Not enough data
US stocks · Weekly	76	36.5%	41.9%	−1.56%	No clear edge
Indices · Weekly	13	38.5%	36.4%	+0.67%	Not enough data
Forex · Weekly	2	0.0%	45.9%	−2.50%	Not enough data
Commodities · Weekly	1	100.0%	55.1%	+12.11%	Not enough data
All markets · Weekly	93	36.3%	41.6%	−1.34%	No clear edge

2:1 trade: target hit and average result

R = initial risk of the trade. Entry by an order at the trigger level, filled at the open when a bar opens beyond it. Exit at the stop or the target, or at the open when a bar opens beyond either one; otherwise at the close after 100 bars. When one bar touches both the stop and the target, the loss is counted. No fees or slippage. n/a = not measured. Per trade: average result, against the same trade on random dates. Figures in gray: fewer than 30 closed trades, not interpreted.
Market	Trades	Target hit	Same trade, random dates	Per trade	2:1 trade verdict
Crypto · 1-hour	2,721	24.7%	24.0%	+0.12 R vs 0.00 R	No clear edge
Forex · 1-hour	1,313	22.7%	23.5%	−0.01 R vs −0.04 R	No clear edge
All markets · 1-hour	4,034	24.1%	23.9%	+0.07 R vs −0.01 R	No clear edge
Crypto · 4-hour	764	23.8%	22.1%	+0.12 R vs −0.02 R	No clear edge
Forex · 4-hour	218	23.9%	25.6%	0.00 R vs +0.01 R	No clear edge
All markets · 4-hour	982	23.8%	22.9%	+0.09 R vs −0.01 R	No clear edge
Crypto · Daily	105	23.8%	20.6%	+0.30 R vs +0.03 R	No clear edge
US stocks · Daily	168	22.0%	20.7%	−0.24 R vs −0.25 R	No clear edge
ETFs · Daily	1	0.0%	0.0%	−1.00 R vs −1.00 R	Not enough data
Indices · Daily	31	25.8%	27.2%	−0.11 R vs −0.15 R	No clear edge
Forex · Daily	44	31.8%	24.6%	+0.14 R vs −0.02 R	No clear edge
Commodities · Daily	2	0.0%	12.5%	−1.08 R vs −0.67 R	Not enough data
All markets · Daily	351	23.9%	21.7%	−0.03 R vs −0.13 R	No clear edge
Crypto · Weekly	0	n/a	n/a	n/a vs n/a	Not enough data
US stocks · Weekly	53	17.0%	15.1%	−0.28 R vs −0.30 R	No clear edge
Indices · Weekly	9	22.2%	18.5%	−0.33 R vs −0.28 R	Not enough data
Forex · Weekly	1	0.0%	25.0%	−1.00 R vs +0.35 R	Not enough data
Commodities · Weekly	1	0.0%	0.0%	−0.25 R vs −0.48 R	Not enough data
All markets · Weekly	64	17.2%	15.5%	−0.30 R vs −0.29 R	No clear edge

Data updated November 5, 2026 · code version c2a1683f · Read the methodology. We measure every pattern on crypto and forex (1-hour, 4-hour, daily and weekly charts) and US stocks, ETFs, indices and commodities (daily and weekly charts). A market or timeframe from that list missing from the tables above had no occurrence.

What you often read

“The identical three crows candlestick pattern is a reliable bearish reversal signal.”

What our data shows

On 420 daily occurrences, it moved in the expected direction 52.4% of the time, against 49.0% for random bars: no clear edge, since the average excess return is not statistically significant.

Table quoted in the text (verdicts and every market: see All measurements)

Market and timeframe	Patterns tested (2:1 trades)	Lower 10 bars later	Random bars	2:1 target hit	Same trade, random dates	Expectancy
All markets, daily	420 (351)	52.4%	49.0%	23.9%	21.7%	−0.03 R
US stocks, daily	190 (168)	44.7%	45.5%	22.0%	20.7%	−0.24 R
Crypto, daily	141 (105)	62.4%	55.5%	23.8%	20.6%	+0.30 R
Crypto, hourly	3,207 (2,721)	51.0%	50.7%	24.7%	24.0%	+0.12 R
Crypto, 4-hour	891 (764)	51.3%	51.8%	23.8%	22.1%	+0.12 R
Forex, hourly	1,486 (1,313)	50.2%	49.2%	22.7%	23.5%	−0.01 R
All markets, weekly	93 (64)	36.3%	41.6%	17.2%	15.5%	−0.30 R

How to read the table

Read the columns in pairs. On daily charts, 52.4% of identical three crows were followed by a lower price 10 bars later, against 49.0% of random bars on the same assets. The excess return over the rest of the market after 10 bars is +0.28%, with a 95% confidence interval from −0.59% to +1.03%. Zero is inside the interval: no clear edge.

The trade columns compare the 2:1 short with the same entry, stop and target on random dates. On daily charts, the pattern reached its target 23.9% of the time against 21.7% for random dates, with an expectancy of −0.03 R per trade before costs, against −0.13 R. Shorting after the pattern did slightly better than shorting at random, by a gap within the margin of error.

Stock market: a lean in the wrong direction, within the margin of error

On US stocks (190 daily patterns on 166 companies), only 44.7% were followed by a lower price 10 bars later, against 45.5% for random bars. The excess return was −0.67% (95% interval −2.06% to +0.40%); that lean is within the margin of error, and it points against the bearish reading, not for it. For stock traders, the pattern was not a reason to sell.

The next bar often bounces

On hourly charts, the very next bar after the pattern closed lower only 43.9% of the time, against 48.9% for random bars. After 10 bars, the gap was gone (50.7% against 50.2%). Three strong down bars can be followed by a small rebound, which is one more reason to wait for a break of the low rather than sell the close.

Does it work in crypto and forex?

Not on our bench: neither market showed an edge. On hourly crypto (3,207 patterns on 517 coins, 2,721 trades), the 2:1 short reached its target 24.7% of the time against 24.0% for random dates, with an expectancy of +0.12 R before costs, but its average result per trade does not pass our statistical test, and fees and slippage could take much of it. On hourly forex (1,486 patterns on 25 pairs, 1,313 trades), the expectancy was −0.01 R. The small commodity and per-market weekly samples are not quoted in this text: they appear with their size in the All measurements table of the statistics section, and samples under 30 trades are not interpreted.

How often does it occur?

On daily charts, one identical three crows every 20,186 bars across all markets, but only one every 38,523 bars on US stocks. On hourly crypto, one every 4,578 bars. With our strict definition, a watchlist of 20 stocks gives about one every several years of daily bars.

The method behind every figure is published in our methodology.

Real trading examples

The gallery in the Real examples section shows real identical three crows, picked by our bench (best and worst results, textbook shapes, most recent cases and random draws, where a market has them), with their actual outcome. Two daily crypto cases follow in detail: one stopped out, one that reached its target.

XLM/USDT, September 2026: a clean-looking pattern that failed

From September 8 to 10, 2026, XLM printed three long black candles, closing at 0.1877, 0.1812 and 0.1746, each session opening at the previous close. The sell stop below the third crow (0.1741) was triggered on September 11, with a stop at 0.1947 and a 2:1 target at 0.1329. Price reversed and hit the stop on September 14. Ten bars after the pattern, XLM was 12.9% above the last crow.

ADA/USDT, April 2023: a slow target

From April 19 to 21, 2023, ADA printed identical three crows, with a high at 0.4435 and a low at 0.3789. The sell stop was triggered on April 25, with a 2:1 target at 0.2497. Ten bars after the pattern, ADA was still 1.2% above the last crow, but price never reached the stop and hit the target on June 10, 2023.

Limitations and common mistakes

Selling at the close of the third crow: the next bar can bounce, and the stop is far away.
Ignoring the trend: three black candles in a downtrend are not a reversal pattern.
Using a tight stop: the pattern spans more than three average ranges, so a stop inside it is easily hit by noise.
Trusting the name: "identical" sounds precise, but in our data it showed no confirmed edge over random bars, no more than the standard three black crows.
Forgetting costs: on hourly charts, our figures are before fees and slippage, which can erase a small positive expectancy.

Stock screeners and tools to scan for the pattern

Stock screeners and charting platforms can flag the identical three crows. The open-source TA-Lib library provides a CDLIDENTICAL3CROWS function; several free web screeners list daily matches on stocks, and some platforms send real-time signals. Check the tolerance your tool uses for "identical" opens: on liquid stocks and coins, today's open sits very near yesterday's close, so loose settings flag far more patterns than strict ones.

Tips for traders

Treat the pattern as a warning to protect long positions, not as a stand-alone sell signal.
Use the trend as the first filter: the pattern only means something after a clear rise.
Keep a trading journal: note every pattern you trade, the stop, the exit and the market context, to see over time what works for your own trading style.
Look at the context: trend, support and resistance levels, volume and momentum.
Wait for the break of the low of the third crow before entering.
Test any rule on your own market and timeframe before risking your account.

Frequently asked questions

Is the identical three crows bullish or bearish?

Bearish. The identical three crows is a bearish reversal pattern that appears after an uptrend. In our data, its average excess return over the rest of the market did not survive our correction for multiple testing on any market or timeframe with enough data; only 4-hour charts, crypto and forex combined, pass a simple test (promising).

How many candles make up the pattern?

Three long black candles, each opening at the previous close and closing lower.

What should I do if the pattern fails?

Exit at the stop above the high of the pattern. A close back above the first crow means the selling has been fully absorbed.

Can I use it for intraday trading?

Yes, it forms on hourly charts, about once every 3,591 bars across all markets. On hourly crypto and forex, the results were close to random bars, and small enough that trading costs matter.

Is it the same as three black crows?

It is a variant with a stricter rule on the open of each candle. Both were tested on our bench, and neither showed a confirmed edge.

Should beginners rely on this signal?

No. Use it as one input with trend, support levels and risk management, and test it on your own market before risking money.

Summary of key points

The identical three crows is three long black candles after an uptrend, each opening at the previous close and closing lower.
It is a variant of the three black crows, stricter on the opens but with no rule on shadows in our bench, read as a bearish reversal warning.
On 420 daily occurrences, 52.4% were lower 10 bars later, against 49.0% for random bars on the same assets.
The 2:1 short reached its target 23.9% of the time, against 21.7% for the same trade on random dates, with an expectancy of −0.03 R before costs.
The stop is wide (median pattern 3.31 ATR on daily charts), so position sizing matters more than the signal.

Final thoughts on risk management

If you trade the identical three crows, treat it as a warning, not a sell order. Wait for a break of the low, place the stop above the high of the pattern, size the position on that distance, and keep the risk per trade small. The edge, if any, has to come from what you combine it with.

This page is educational and is not investment advice. Trading stocks, crypto, forex or any leveraged product involves a risk of loss, and past statistics do not guarantee future results.

About the author and the data. Written by Amaury, founder of PatternsWizard, who is passionate about finance, quantitative trading and data analysis. He built the PatternsWizard test bench, which applies the same published rules to full market history: crypto, forex, US stocks, ETFs, indices and commodities. Trades and win rates are compared with random bars on the same assets, excess returns with the rest of the market, with error margins and a correction for multiple testing, and the whole pipeline is checked on random-walk prices, where nothing can be predicted. Statistics on this page were generated on November 5, 2026. The full methodology explains every step.