The triple bottom pattern is a bullish reversal chart pattern: price falls to the same support level three times, bounces after each test, then breaks above the resistance formed by the rallies between the lows. Classical technical analysis reads it as a sign that sellers failed three times at one price and that buyers are taking control. The pattern is only confirmed when price closes above that resistance, a line called the neckline.

This guide explains how to identify the pattern on a price chart, the psychology behind it, and how to trade it, with entry, stop-loss and target. It also answers the question: what happened after the pattern? Our test bench detected 2,022 triple bottoms on daily charts across stocks, crypto, forex, ETFs, indices and commodities, and compared each trade with the same trade on random dates of the same assets.

What is a triple bottom pattern?

A triple bottom pattern is a reversal pattern that forms after a downtrend. The market makes a first low, rallies, falls back to about the same low, rallies again, and makes a third low at the same level. When the market then breaks above the highs between the three lows, the triple bottom chart pattern is complete, and the downtrend may turn into an uptrend.

The idea is simple. Each low is a test of a support level. Sellers push the market down to it three times and fail three times. Buyers, who stepped in at the same price on every test, end up strong enough to push price through resistance. That is why classic analysis ranks this chart pattern among bullish chart patterns, next to the double bottom and the inverse head and shoulders.

In classic technical analysis, Robert Edwards and John Magee described triple tops and triple bottoms in Technical Analysis of Stock Trends (first edition 1948). They are rare: in our data, one triple bottom appears every 4,193 daily bars on average, against one double bottom every 1,320.

Our bench uses a written rule so that a computer can apply it without judgment: a prior decline (on a textbook pattern, the close one pattern duration earlier sits at least 60% of the height above the highest peak), three troughs within 10% of the pattern height of each other (25% on the looser standard grade, with the first and last within 15%), separated by two rally highs within 20% of each other (30% on the standard grade), confirmed by the first close above the higher of those two highs. The first trough must be a true low: over one first-leg duration before the pattern starts, price never went more than 10% of the pattern height below it. On daily charts, only 53 of the 2,022 occurrences meet the textbook grade; the other 1,969 are standard. Swing points only count once price has moved away from them by at least 2 times the average true range (ATR), and the same rule is run at 4 and 8 times the ATR to catch larger formations. Detecting such formations with an algorithm instead of by eye follows the approach of Andrew Lo, Harry Mamaysky and Jiang Wang in "Foundations of Technical Analysis" (Journal of Finance, 2000).

How to identify a triple bottom on a chart

To identify a triple bottom pattern, check four points in order: a decline before it, three distinct lows at a similar level, two rallies between them, and a close above the neckline.

High before the declinethe pattern comes after a decline
First low
First peak
Second low
Second peak
Necklinehighest peak between the troughs
Third lowthree lows within 10% of height
Confirmationclose above the neckline

Median shape of 735 daily occurrences drawn at random from all markets. Kept: setups with regular legs when enough exist, with the most common number of swing points and no two swing points on the same bar.

Bullish setup on the median shape of 735 daily occurrences drawn at random from all markets, with entry, stop loss (SL) and 2:1 target (TP)

The chart above is not drawn by hand. It is the median shape of the occurrences our bench detected on daily charts across all markets: three lows at almost the same level, two rallies that stop around the middle of the range, and the breakout above the neckline on the right.

The three distinct troughs

The three lows should be clearly separated by real rallies, not three candles next to each other. They do not need to be equal to the cent. A rule of thumb that matches our detection: the gap between the highest and the lowest of the three troughs should be small compared with the height of the pattern (within 10% of it on a textbook pattern, 25% on the looser standard grade). On our median shape, the second and third lows sit slightly above the first.

Volume patterns during formation

Classic technical analysis expects volume to fade from one low to the next, as selling dries up, and to increase on the breakout. We tested the second part, and the result is in the section on indicators below.

The importance of the neckline

Many candidates never get confirmed. On daily charts, only 51.3% of the shapes our bench found closed above the neckline within half the pattern's duration (three quarters of it on the looser standard grade); on hourly crypto charts, 37.9%. For the double bottom, the same figure is 42.2% on daily charts. A large share of potential setups are never completed.

The psychology behind the triple bottom

The triple bottom pattern is a picture of a market that keeps testing the same price and keeps finding buyers there.

Exhaustion of the sellers

At the first low, sellers are still in control and bearish sentiment dominates. The second test shows that the level holds; the third test shows it holds again. In the classical reading, each failed attempt to break support makes the remaining sellers less confident and pushes short sellers to cover; we have not measured selling pressure. The breakout above resistance is the point where the balance has visibly changed.

Institutional accumulation phases

One reading sees the flat floor as a phase of accumulation: large buyers absorb supply at a price they consider cheap, without chasing price higher. This reading is plausible but hard to verify. What the price action shows is the outcome: a price that sellers could not break three times.

That story is convincing, but it describes the past. Whether the third failed test changes what comes next is a question for data, and we come back to it in the reliability section.

How to trade the triple bottom pattern

The classic way of trading the triple bottom pattern is to buy the breakout above the neckline, with a stop-loss below the lows and a target based on the height of the pattern. Our bench simulates a version of this trade on every occurrence: entry at the close of the breakout bar, stop below the lowest of the three troughs, target at twice the risk, exit after 100 bars if neither level is hit.

Determining your entry point

Classic analysis describes three entries:

The breakout entry: buy when a bar closes above the neckline. This is the version we measured.
The retest entry: wait for the market to come back to the old resistance, now acting as support, and buy the bounce. The stop is closer, but some breakouts never retest and the trade is missed.
The anticipation entry: buy near the third low, before confirmation. The stop is very close, but the pattern is not confirmed, and many candidates never are.

Entry: Close above the highest peak between the troughs
Stop loss (SL): Below the lowest of the three troughs
Target (TP): Twice the risk (2:1)

The trade our bench tests, drawn on the typical shape. Median shape of 735 daily occurrences drawn at random from all markets. Kept: setups with regular legs when enough exist, with the most common number of swing points and no two swing points on the same bar.

A clean case from our bench: US stocksChosen on its shape alone, never on the outcome. Stock prices are adjusted for splits and dividends, so they can differ from the prices quoted at the time.

TextbookMS November 4, 2004Daily chart0.4% against the expected direction after 10 bars2:1 trade: closed at +0.50 R, 100 bars after entry, past this chart

Setting effective stop-loss orders

The logical stop-loss sits just under the lowest of the three troughs: if price trades there, the triple bottom has failed. That stop is wide, since the distance from the breakout to the lows is the full height of the pattern. Size the position on that distance, not on the number of shares you would like to hold. A tighter stop under the last higher low is possible, but it will be hit more often.

Defining your take-profit targets

The measured-move target adds the height of the pattern to the neckline. With an entry near the neckline and a stop at the lows, that target is close to 1 times the risk. We tested a farther target at twice the risk. On daily charts, trades that reached it took a median of 52 bars, and stopped trades a median of 35 bars. The median trade moved 0.81 R in its favor at best, about the distance to the measured-move target, and of the trades that hit their stop, 10.8% had first reached +1 R. Taking part of the profits at the measured move and then moving the stop is one way to handle that, which we have not tested.

Essential technical indicators for confirmation

Classic analysis combines the pattern with technical signals that describe volume, momentum or the larger trend, to help confirm the signal.

Using volume to validate the breakout

We measured it. On daily charts, setups whose breakout bar had volume above 1.5 times the 20-bar average reached the 2:1 target 17.9% of the time, against 18.8% for breakouts on normal volume, with expectancies of +0.14 R and +0.22 R. High volume barely changed the result. This breakdown is descriptive (not corrected for multiple testing), but it is a reason not to treat volume as a required confirmation.

Moving average convergence divergence (MACD)

One addition is a bullish divergence: the third low at the same price as the first, but with a higher MACD or RSI reading, a sign of fading downward momentum. We have not tested indicator filters: if you use one, test it on your own market before relying on it.

Fibonacci retracement levels

One approach looks for the three lows at a 50% or 61.8% retracement of the previous rise, where several reasons to buy meet. This is a matter of confluence, and we have not measured it.

Triple bottom vs. double bottom: key differences

The double bottom tests support twice, the triple bottom three times. The inverse head and shoulders is the close cousin with a lower middle low. The mirror image of the triple bottom is the triple top, a bearish reversal after a rise. Our bench applies the same rules to all of them, so the numbers can be compared directly.

Pattern (daily, all markets)	Occurrences	Confirmed by a breakout	Closed trades	2:1 target hit	Same trade, random dates	Expectancy
Triple bottom	2,022	51.3%	1,989	18.6%	20.4%	+0.19 R
Double bottom	6,422	42.2%	6,303	21.0%	22.2%	+0.20 R
Inverse head and shoulders	5,968	70.9%	5,919	28.1%	29.2%	+0.14 R

Is a triple bottom more reliable than a double bottom? Not in our data. The third test does not improve the result: the triple bottom reached the 2:1 target less often than the double bottom, for about the same average result per trade, and none of the three patterns beat the same trade on random dates in average result per trade by a margin that passes our statistical test. One likely reason, which we have not measured: the stop sits below the lowest of three troughs, so the risk, and therefore the 2:1 target, may be farther away.

In practice, every triple bottom starts as a potential double bottom. If the market breaks the neckline after the second low, it is a double bottom; if it falls back for a third test, it becomes a potential triple bottom. A triple bottom with a falling line of highs can also turn into a descending triangle, and one with flat highs looks like a rectangle: the breakout direction decides.

A cup and handle pattern also builds a base, but as one rounded low rather than three tests of the same support.

Common mistakes when trading the triple bottom

Entering the trade too early

Ignoring the broader market trend

A trend filter keeps only setups that form above the 200-day moving average, inside a larger uptrend. On daily charts, it did not raise the hit rate: 16.4% of 2:1 targets hit above the average, 22.9% below it, with expectancies of +0.19 R and +0.15 R, a small gap the other way on the average result. This split is descriptive.

Falling for false breakouts

A false breakout closes above the neckline, then falls back into the range and through the lows. It is common: on daily charts, 687 of the 1,989 trades hit their stop, and in the three daily crypto cases described in "Real-world examples of the triple bottom pattern", two breakouts ended at the stop. A breakout bar that closes far above the neckline is a particular trap, because it moves the entry far from the stop.

Risk management and position sizing

Because the stop is wide, position size is where the risk is controlled. Decide first how much of the account you accept to lose if the pattern fails, for example a small fixed share, then divide that amount by the distance from entry to stop. The result is the size of the position. Taller patterns need a smaller position and more patience: on daily charts, formations taller than the median reached the 2:1 target 12.2% of the time, shorter ones 24.8%.

Keep a trading journal with every entry, stop and exit. Looking back, the setups that worked are easy to see, and the ones that failed can be easy to forget. That is why our bench counts every occurrence, winners and losers alike.

Reliability and success rate of the triple bottom

The triple bottom pattern is not reliable on its own: no market or timeframe we tested showed an edge over random dates of the same assets that survives our correction for multiple testing. On hourly crypto charts it was even rated Worse than chance: it rose less often than random bars. Here are the numbers from our test bench, which scans the full price history of each asset and compares every occurrence with random bars.

53.0%vs 53.0% at random

Moved the expected way 10 bars later, compared with random bars.

Measured on 2,022 daily triple bottom occurrences across 1,186 assets. Random bars on the same assets are the honest baseline.

No clear edge

Triple bottom against random bars on the same assets, by market, on daily candles. Bars of almost the same length mean no edge.

Moved the expected way 10 bars laterTriple bottomRandom bars

All markets
All markets, Triple bottom: 53.0%
All markets, Random bars: 53.0%
Crypto
Crypto, Triple bottom: 59.6%
Crypto, Random bars: 44.5%
US stocks
US stocks, Triple bottom: 51.8%
US stocks, Random bars: 53.7%
ETFs
ETFs, Triple bottom: 63.0%
ETFs, Random bars: 55.9%

2:1 trade hit its targetTriple bottom tradeSame trade, random dates

All markets
All markets, Triple bottom trade: 18.6%
All markets, Same trade, random dates: 20.4%
Crypto
Crypto, Triple bottom trade: 29.7%
Crypto, Same trade, random dates: 25.6%
US stocks
US stocks, Triple bottom trade: 17.6%
US stocks, Same trade, random dates: 20.2%
ETFs
ETFs, Triple bottom trade: 9.3%
ETFs, Same trade, random dates: 14.5%

All statistics

Full results for the triple bottom pattern, market by market

Every occurrence our rule finds on full price history, compared with what the same assets did on random bars. A pattern only earns an edge if it beats random entries after correcting for the thousands of tests we run.

Our verdict

Not a reliable signal on its own here. Use it as context, not as a trigger.

10-bar move No clear edge2:1 trade No clear edge

Triple bottom: 2,022 occurrences tested

Bullish pattern · All markets · Daily · 1,186 assets · 1973-07 to 2026-10

Moved the expected way after 10 bars

53.0%

vs 53.0% on random bars

Excess return vs its market, 10 bars

−0.33%

95% interval −0.77% to +0.06%

2:1 trade hit the target

18.6%

vs 20.4% for the same trade on random dates

Average result per trade

+0.19 R

vs +0.18 R on random dates

What this means. No measurable difference from the rest of its market over the next 10 bars.

Timeline

Pattern length, first swing to breakout: 81 days · middle half 51 to 158 · on 2,022 occurrences
Breakout, after the last swing: 9 days · middle half 3 to 18 · on 2,022 occurrences
Time to the 2:1 target, when hit: 52 days · middle half 28 to 74 · on 369 trades that hit it
Time to the stop, when hit: 35 days · middle half 18 to 63 · on 687 trades that hit it
Time in the trade, all exits: 92 days · middle half 38 to 100 · on 1,989 trades
Measured-move target reached, when hit: 25 days · middle half 11 to 48 · on the occurrences that reached it; Pattern height projected from the breakout

Size and trade path

Pattern height: 14.5% · middle half 9.7% to 23.9% · on 2,022 occurrences
Best open profit during the trade: 0.81 R · middle half 0.34 R to 1.67 R · on 1,989 trades
Stopped trades that were first up 1 R: 10.8% · on 687 stopped trades; Trades a stop moved to breakeven at +1 R would have closed flat instead of at a loss

Medians, each on the cases named on its line; "middle half" spans the 25th to 75th percentile; no value under 30 cases.

How we detect it. Three troughs within 10% of the pattern height of each other, separated by two peaks within 20% of each other. Prior decline: the close one pattern duration before the first trough lies at least 60% of the height above the highest peak. At least 3 ATR tall, at least 3 bars between swing points. Confirmed by a close above the highest peak within half the pattern duration. The standard grade, which accepts most counted occurrences, widens this: the three levels within 25%, the outer two within 15%, the two opposite swings within 30%, a prior move of at least 30% of the height over the two pattern durations before, a breakout within 0.75 of the duration. The first trough is a true low: from one first-leg duration before the pattern up to that trough, price never fell more than 10% of the pattern height below it.

All measurements (20 rows)

10-bar move: did price go the expected way?

Figures in gray: fewer than 30 occurrences, not interpreted. Excess return is signed so that positive favors the pattern. The test uses the bootstrap’s standard error and the interval its percentiles: near the 0.05 line, or on a few extreme moves, an interval can leave out zero while the test does not pass, and the test decides. Stock data misses most delisted companies, a survivorship bias we have not sized, which can flatter stock rows.
Market	Occurrences	Pattern	Random bars	Excess	10-bar move verdict
Crypto · 1-hour	2,864	44.2%	48.2%	−0.36%	Opposite of the textbook
Forex · 1-hour	525	50.0%	50.5%	−0.01%	No clear edge
All markets · 1-hour	3,389	45.1%	48.5%	−0.30%	Opposite of the textbook
Crypto · 4-hour	672	43.4%	47.4%	−1.25%	Weak, below chance
Forex · 4-hour	151	47.0%	50.3%	−0.01%	No clear edge
All markets · 4-hour	823	44.1%	48.0%	−1.02%	Weak, below chance
Crypto · Daily	178	59.6%	44.5%	−1.04%	No clear edge
US stocks · Daily	1,714	51.8%	53.7%	−0.28%	No clear edge
ETFs · Daily	54	63.0%	55.9%	+0.26%	No clear edge
Indices · Daily	28	60.7%	57.1%	+0.44%	Not enough data
Forex · Daily	29	65.5%	50.6%	+0.36%	Not enough data
Commodities · Daily	19	47.4%	51.0%	−2.19%	Not enough data
All markets · Daily	2,022	53.0%	53.0%	−0.33%	No clear edge
Crypto · Weekly	10	50.0%	40.9%	−4.97%	Not enough data
US stocks · Weekly	222	55.4%	56.0%	+2.43%	No clear edge
ETFs · Weekly	8	87.5%	63.8%	+2.27%	Not enough data
Indices · Weekly	5	100.0%	62.0%	+0.54%	Not enough data
Forex · Weekly	4	75.0%	49.6%	+2.53%	Not enough data
Commodities · Weekly	5	60.0%	52.8%	−1.48%	Not enough data
All markets · Weekly	254	57.5%	55.6%	+2.02%	No clear edge

2:1 trade: target hit and average result

R = initial risk of the trade. Entry at the close of the signal bar. Exit at the stop or the target, or at the open when a bar opens beyond either one; otherwise at the close after 100 bars. When one bar touches both the stop and the target, the loss is counted. No fees or slippage. n/a = not measured. Per trade: average result, against the same trade on random dates. Figures in gray: fewer than 30 closed trades, not interpreted.
Market	Trades	Target hit	Same trade, random dates	Per trade	2:1 trade verdict
Crypto · 1-hour	2,851	16.8%	18.2%	0.00 R vs +0.01 R	No clear edge
Forex · 1-hour	523	8.6%	12.3%	−0.10 R vs −0.02 R	No clear edge
All markets · 1-hour	3,374	15.5%	17.3%	−0.02 R vs 0.00 R	No clear edge
Crypto · 4-hour	670	19.7%	20.6%	+0.09 R vs +0.09 R	No clear edge
Forex · 4-hour	151	11.3%	12.5%	+0.07 R vs +0.07 R	No clear edge
All markets · 4-hour	821	18.1%	19.1%	+0.09 R vs +0.08 R	No clear edge
Crypto · Daily	175	29.7%	25.6%	+0.13 R vs +0.04 R	No clear edge
US stocks · Daily	1,684	17.6%	20.2%	+0.19 R vs +0.19 R	No clear edge
ETFs · Daily	54	9.3%	14.5%	+0.26 R vs +0.23 R	No clear edge
Indices · Daily	28	17.9%	8.9%	+0.39 R vs +0.13 R	Not enough data
Forex · Daily	29	20.7%	15.8%	+0.26 R vs 0.00 R	Not enough data
Commodities · Daily	19	21.1%	28.9%	+0.19 R vs +0.40 R	Not enough data
All markets · Daily	1,989	18.6%	20.4%	+0.19 R vs +0.18 R	No clear edge
Crypto · Weekly	10	40.0%	50.8%	+0.25 R vs +0.60 R	Not enough data
US stocks · Weekly	201	33.3%	27.5%	+0.54 R vs +0.33 R	No clear edge
ETFs · Weekly	7	28.6%	17.9%	+1.09 R vs +0.56 R	Not enough data
Indices · Weekly	5	40.0%	35.0%	+1.17 R vs +0.54 R	Not enough data
Forex · Weekly	4	50.0%	14.6%	+0.68 R vs −0.02 R	Not enough data
Commodities · Weekly	3	33.3%	33.3%	+0.80 R vs +0.54 R	Not enough data
All markets · Weekly	230	33.9%	28.2%	+0.57 R vs +0.35 R	Promising

After the breakout

False start: the stop was hit before price moved half the pattern's height in the breakout direction, within twice the pattern's length. Random dates: the same entry, stop and length on the same asset at random dates. Throwback: price came back within a quarter of an average bar (ATR) of the breakout level, after at least one whole bar beyond it, within the pattern's length.
Market	Occurrences	False starts	Same, random dates	Throwbacks
Crypto · 1-hour	2,864	27.6%	29.8%	75.5%
Forex · 1-hour	525	32.2%	31.7%	77.4%
All markets · 1-hour	3,389	28.3%	30.1%	75.8%
Crypto · 4-hour	672	23.6%	27.7%	80.6%
Forex · 4-hour	151	25.9%	28.7%	77.2%
All markets · 4-hour	823	24.0%	27.9%	80.0%
Crypto · Daily	178	26.5%	26.6%	76.5%
US stocks · Daily	1,714	25.4%	24.7%	75.6%
ETFs · Daily	54	19.6%	23.3%	81.1%
Indices · Daily	28	25.0%	28.6%	64.3%
Forex · Daily	29	10.7%	27.9%	69.0%
Commodities · Daily	19	40.0%	13.2%	76.5%
All markets · Daily	2,022	25.2%	24.8%	75.6%
Crypto · Weekly	10	0.0%	11.9%	75.0%
US stocks · Weekly	222	17.6%	26.0%	74.7%
ETFs · Weekly	8	16.7%	20.2%	33.3%
Indices · Weekly	5	0.0%	31.7%	60.0%
Forex · Weekly	4	0.0%	12.5%	75.0%
Commodities · Weekly	5	0.0%	26.7%	33.3%
All markets · Weekly	254	16.0%	25.4%	72.6%

Data updated November 5, 2026 · code version c2a1683f · Read the methodology. We measure every pattern on crypto and forex (1-hour, 4-hour, daily and weekly charts) and US stocks, ETFs, indices and commodities (daily and weekly charts). A market or timeframe from that list missing from the tables above had no occurrence.

What you often read

“The triple bottom pattern is a reliable bullish signal.”

What our data shows

On 2,022 daily occurrences, it moved in the expected direction 53.0% of the time, against 53.0% for random bars: no clear edge, since the average excess return is not statistically significant.

Table quoted in the text (verdicts and every market: see All measurements)

Market and timeframe	Triple bottoms	Higher 10 bars later	Random bars	Closed trades	2:1 target hit	Same trade, random dates	Expectancy (random)
All markets, daily	2,022	53.0%	53.0%	1,989	18.6%	20.4%	+0.19 R (+0.18 R)
US stocks, daily	1,714	51.8%	53.7%	1,684	17.6%	20.2%	+0.19 R (+0.19 R)
Crypto, daily	178	59.6%	44.5%	175	29.7%	25.6%	+0.13 R (+0.04 R)
Crypto, 4-hour	672	43.4%	47.4%	670	19.7%	20.6%	+0.09 R (+0.09 R)
Crypto, hourly	2,864	44.2%	48.2%	2,851	16.8%	18.2%	0.00 R (+0.01 R)
Forex, hourly	525	50.0%	50.5%	523	8.6%	12.3%	−0.10 R (−0.02 R)
All markets, weekly	254	57.5%	55.6%	230	33.9%	28.2%	+0.57 R (+0.35 R)

Read the table in pairs of columns. On daily charts, 53.0% of triple bottoms were followed by a higher price 10 bars after the breakout. That sounds bullish until you see that 53.0% of random days on the same assets were too. The excess return over the rest of the market after 10 days is −0.33%, with a 95% confidence interval from −0.77% to +0.06%: zero is inside the interval, so there is no clear edge.

The expectancy columns tell the same story. The expectancy of +0.19 R per trade before costs looks attractive, but the same entry, stop and target on random dates averaged +0.18 R. The profit comes from the upward drift of stocks over the holding period, not from the pattern. Stock figures also carry a survivorship bias we have not sized: most delisted companies are missing from our data. Daily crypto looks better (29.7% against 25.6%), but on 178 occurrences (175 closed trades) the gap in average result per trade does not pass our statistical tests. Shorter timeframes went the wrong way: on hourly crypto, 44.2% of triple bottoms were higher 10 bars later, against 48.2% of random bars, an excess return of −0.36% that is rated Worse than chance; on 4-hour crypto, the shortfall (−1.25%) passes a simple test but not our correction. Daily indices (28 occurrences) are too few to judge.

What the breakdowns show

Pattern height: on daily charts, shorter formations reached the 2:1 target 24.8% of the time, taller ones 12.2%. A taller pattern means a farther target.
Swing size: formations built from the smallest swings (2 ATR) reached it 25.7% of the time, those built from the largest swings (8 ATR) 3.6%: larger swings mean a farther target, with the same 100 bars to reach it.
Volume on the breakout bar: 17.9% with high volume, 18.8% without.
200-day moving average: 16.4% above, 22.9% below.
Stability: the excess return was −0.36% in the first half of the history and −0.31% in the second half, both close to zero.

These breakdowns are descriptive and not corrected for multiple testing. None of them turned the pattern into an edge over random dates. Every market, timeframe and verdict is in the "All measurements" tables of this section. The method is published in our methodology.

Real-world examples of the triple bottom pattern

The gallery in this section shows real triple bottom patterns picked by our bench (best and worst results, textbook shapes, most recent, typical draws), with their actual outcome. The three cases described after the gallery are on daily crypto charts, with quotes in USDT.

Triple bottom formations in cryptocurrency

DOT/USDT made three lows at 3.59 (August 5, 2024), 3.818 (September 6) and 3.665 (November 3), with rally highs at 5.1 and 4.964 between them. On November 10, 2024, it closed at 5.241, above the 5.1 neckline. With a stop at 3.59, the 2:1 target was 8.543; price reached it on November 23, thirteen days later. DOT was 9.2% higher 10 days after the breakout.

Failures are part of the picture. XLM/USDT made lows at 0.2268, 0.2001 and 0.2168 between March and June 2025, broke out above its 0.3347 neckline with a close at 0.3603 on July 11, 2025, and was 31.3% higher 10 days later. It never reached the 2:1 target at 0.6807, and later fell back to the stop at 0.2001. ETH/USDT shows the far-entry trap: lows at 2,852, 2,817 and 2,862 in April and May 2024, a neckline at 3,357.4, and a single breakout bar on May 20, 2024, that closed at 3,661.78, 9.1% above the neckline. The rule-based entry was therefore far from the stop at 2,817. ETH was 2.4% higher 10 days later, then fell back and hit the stop.

Identifying the pattern in stocks

Stocks provide most of our daily sample: 1,714 occurrences on 972 US stocks since 1975. On daily stock charts the pattern was confirmed more often than on daily crypto charts (52.8% of candidates against 42.0%), but its results did not beat random dates (17.6% of 2:1 targets on 1,684 closed trades, against 20.2%).

Spotting the pattern in forex markets

On forex, the pattern did no better: on 525 hourly occurrences (523 closed trades) across 25 forex pairs since 2012, the 2:1 target was hit 8.6% of the time against 12.3% on random dates, with an expectancy of −0.10 R before costs, against −0.02 R on random dates: the row reads no clear edge.

Tools to spot and test the pattern

Charting tools such as TradingView let you draw a horizontal support line under the three lows and a resistance line through the rally highs. Several scanners also flag triple bottom signals automatically. Check what a scanner calls "equal" lows and whether it requires a close above resistance: definitions differ, and so do the results.

The best way to learn the pattern is to test it yourself. Before trading it with real money, mark the last 30 triple bottoms on your market, write down the entry, stop and target, and compare the result with the same trade on random dates. That exercise is the test we run at scale, and it will help you understand how often the pattern works on the assets you trade, and how often it does not.

Pros and cons of using the triple bottom

Advantages

It is easy to read: three tests of the same support, and one horizontal resistance level to break.
It defines the plan: entry above the neckline, stop below the lows, target from the height.
Waiting for confirmation removes many candidates before any position is taken.

Limitations

It is rare: about one every 4,193 daily bars, against one every 1,320 for the double bottom.
The stop is wide, and taller formations reach their target less often.
On its own, it showed no proven edge over random dates on any market or timeframe we tested; on hourly crypto it was rated worse than chance.

How to handle a failed triple bottom pattern

A triple bottom fails in two ways. Before the breakout, price breaks below the three lows: the support is gone, and the formation becomes a continuation of the downtrend. After the breakout, the market falls back under resistance and down to the stop. In both cases, exit at the stop as planned. Do not widen it or average down: a break below the level that held three times removes the reason for the trade.

Frequently asked questions

Is the triple bottom pattern considered bullish?

Yes. It is a bullish reversal pattern by definition: it forms after a decline and points to a potential uptrend once price breaks above the neckline. In our statistics, it was followed by a rise about as often as random bars on the same assets on daily and weekly charts, a gap in average excess return that is not statistically significant. On hourly crypto charts it rose less often than random bars (44.2% against 48.2%), a shortfall rated worse than chance.

What is the success rate of this pattern?

On 2,022 daily occurrences (1,989 closed trades), the 2:1 trade reached its target 18.6% of the time, against 20.4% for the same trade on random dates. A success rate quoted without that comparison says little.

Can the triple bottom be used on any timeframe?

Yes, it appears from hourly to weekly charts. Weekly setups had the best raw results (33.9% of 2:1 targets hit, against 28.2% for random weeks on the same assets), rated promising: the gap passes a simple test but not our correction. On hourly charts, fees weigh more because the move to the target is smaller.

What happens after a successful triple bottom breakout?

On daily charts, after 75.6% of breakouts, price spent at least one whole bar above the breakout level, then came back within 0.25 ATR of it within the length of the pattern, a retest of the old resistance as support. Trades that reached the 2:1 target took a median of 52 bars, so the move usually took weeks or months, not days.

Is a triple bottom more reliable than a double bottom?

No, not in our tests. On daily charts the double bottom reached its 2:1 target 21.0% of the time and the triple bottom 18.6%, but their average results per trade were close (+0.20 R and +0.19 R), and neither beat the same trade on random dates by a measurable margin.

Summary of key points

A triple bottom pattern is three lows at about the same level with two rallies between them, confirmed by a close above the neckline.
Only 51.3% of candidates on daily charts closed above the neckline.
On 2,022 daily occurrences (1,989 closed trades), the 2:1 trade reached its target 18.6% of the time, against 20.4% for the same trade on random dates.
The expectancy of +0.19 R before costs matched the +0.18 R of random dates: the market drift, not the pattern, explains it.
Neither high breakout volume nor the 200-day moving average filter raised the hit rate.

If you trade the triple bottom, treat it as a place to define risk, not as a reason to buy. Wait for the close above the neckline, place the stop below the lows, size the position on that distance, and keep the risk per trade small. The pattern gives you a clear structure; any edge has to come from what you combine it with. Trading involves a risk of losses, and nothing on this page is investment advice.

About the author and the data. Written by Amaury, founder of PatternsWizard, who is passionate about finance, quantitative trading and data analysis. He built the PatternsWizard test bench, which detects each pattern with published rules on full market history: crypto, forex, US stocks, ETFs, indices and commodities. Trades and win rates are compared with random bars on the same assets, excess returns with the rest of the market, with error margins and a correction for multiple testing, and the whole pipeline is checked on random-walk prices, where nothing can be predicted. Statistics on this page were generated on November 5, 2026. The full methodology explains every step.

How we tested this pattern

Every pattern's results on one sheet