Chart patternNeutral
Symmetrical Triangle Pattern: How to Identify, Trade and Test It
Lower highs and higher lows that squeeze price into a point, until it breaks out on one side. This guide shows how to draw the triangle, trade the breakout and judge it against chance.
How we tested this pattern
- Sample
- 10,198 occurrences on 6 markets (crypto, forex, US stocks, ETFs, indices and commodities), 1970 to 2026.
- Detection
- Found by code, never picked by hand: every match of the rule on full price history, winners and losers alike.Four to six alternating swing points (four need a fifth touch of a line): falling upper line, rising lower line (each moves at least 30% of the height), final width at most 60% of the initial one. Every swing point lies within 10% of the pattern height of its line, no close strays more than 10% outside the lines while the pattern forms, the pattern is at least 3 ATR tall with at least 3 bars between swing points, and the breakout comes within half the pattern duration after the last point. Breakout = first close outside the lines, before the apex. The standard grade, which accepts most counted occurrences, adds a looser pass: at least 2 ATR tall, swing points within 15% of their lines.
- Benchmark
- Each occurrence is compared with the same assets on random bars: the move 10 bars later, and a 2:1 reward-to-risk trade.
- Checks
- Block bootstrap and a correction for the thousands of tests we run, plus a random-walk self-test that the bench passes: on random prices, no pattern should win.
- Updated
- Data updated November 5, 2026, code version c2a1683f. Read the methodology · Raw data (JSON)
At a glance: what textbooks say, what we measured
- Direction
- Neutral
- Occurrences tested
- 10,198 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Upward breakouts: Textbook: price should rise after it
- Too close to call · +0.24% vs the market, 10 bars
- Downward breakouts: Textbook: price should fall after it
- Too close to call · +0.07% vs the market, 10 bars
- Textbook: target reached most of the time
- 28.7% vs 26.9% on random dates, all markets, daily, upward breakouts
- Where it did best
- Forex, 1-hour, downward breakouts: +0.13 R 2:1 trade vs random dates, not proven
- Verdict
- Upward breakouts, 10-bar move: No clear edge2:1 trade: No clear edge
- Downward breakouts, 10-bar move: No clear edge2:1 trade: No clear edge
On this page
- What is a symmetrical triangle pattern?
- How does a symmetrical triangle pattern form?
- What does a symmetrical triangle signal in technical analysis?
- Bullish vs. bearish symmetrical triangles: how to tell them apart
- How to trade the symmetrical triangle pattern
- Calculating price targets for symmetrical triangles
- Symmetrical triangle trading strategies
- Technical indicators to combine with the pattern
- Common mistakes when trading triangle patterns
- Symmetrical triangle vs. other chart patterns
- Best timeframes for trading symmetrical triangles
- Pros and cons of the symmetrical triangle
- Reliability and success rates
- Real examples of the symmetrical triangle
- Tools and platforms for pattern recognition
- Frequently asked questions
- Summary of key points
- Final thoughts on risk management
The symmetrical triangle pattern is a chart pattern made of two converging trendlines: a falling upper line through lower highs and a rising lower line through higher lows. It shows a market in consolidation, with buyers and sellers each giving ground until the range becomes too narrow and price breaks out on one side.
This guide covers the definition, how to identify a symmetrical triangle on a chart, how to set entry, stop and target, and which way it actually broke and what happened next. Our test bench applied the same rule to full price history: 5,641 upside and 4,557 downside breakouts on daily charts alone across stocks, crypto, forex, ETFs, indices and commodities. It then compared the outcome with random days on the same assets.
What is a symmetrical triangle pattern?
A symmetrical triangle is a neutral chart pattern in technical analysis. It has no built-in direction: the breakout decides whether it becomes a bullish or a bearish signal. Edwards and Magee, in Technical Analysis of Stock Trends (first published in 1948), called it a "coil", because the swings get smaller and smaller as the pattern develops.
Definition and rules of a valid pattern
A valid symmetrical triangle needs at least two lower highs and two higher lows. The upper line connects the highs and slopes down; the lower line connects the lows and slopes up. The two lines meet at a point called the apex. The breakout is the first close outside the lines, and it should come before the apex: a market that drifts all the way to the tip without breaking out has lost the tension that gives the pattern its meaning.
Our test bench uses the same rule, written so that a computer can apply it without judgment: four to six alternating swing points, a falling upper line, a rising lower line, and a breakout defined as the first close outside the lines, before the apex. Swing points are confirmed only after price moves away from them by a multiple of the average true range (ATR), so the bench never uses information from the future.
Visual representation of the pattern
The chart below is not drawn by hand. It is the median shape of the symmetrical triangle pattern as our bench detected it, for both breakout directions, with the lines of the position we test: entry at the breakout close, stop loss on the other side of the pattern, target at twice the risk.
The psychology behind the pattern
Each lower high shows sellers who are willing to sell at a lower price; each higher low shows buyers who are willing to pay more. Neither side wins, and the range narrows. Classic analysis reads this as a balance of supply and demand that cannot last: when one side gives up, the price move out of the range can be fast.
How does a symmetrical triangle pattern form?
On daily charts, the median symmetrical triangle with an upward breakout lasted 59 bars from its first swing point to the breakout, so it often takes about three months. Classic analysis reads it as a pause inside an existing trend, and the same geometry appears on hourly and weekly charts.
- First peakfour to six alternating swing points
- First trough
- Lower peakupper line falls
- Higher troughlower line rises
- Third peak, lower stillthe lines converge
- Breakoutfirst close outside the lines, before the apex
Converging trendlines
The upper and lower lines converge at roughly the same angle. That is what separates the symmetrical triangle from its relatives: if the upper line is flat, it is an ascending triangle; if the lower line is flat, a descending triangle; if both lines slope in the same direction, a rising wedge or a falling wedge. The slopes do not need to be identical: what matters is that one line falls while the other rises.
Declining trading volume
Classic analysis expects volume to shrink as the symmetrical triangle pattern develops, then expand on the breakout. In that reading, smaller swings attract fewer orders, so lower volume inside the pattern is normal. We measured the breakout side of this rule (see Do volume and pattern height matter?): on hourly charts, high-volume breakouts did not do better than breakouts on normal volume.
How often does it form?
On our data, a completed symmetrical triangle breakout appears roughly once every 1,503 daily bars for upside breaks and once every 1,860 daily bars for downside breaks, per asset. On a watchlist of 50 stocks, that is a new setup every few weeks. It is a common chart pattern, not a rare one.
What does a symmetrical triangle signal in technical analysis?
In technical analysis, the pattern signals compression, not direction. Edwards and Magee and later textbooks still give it a bias: they treat it as a continuation pattern that breaks in the direction of the trend before it.
Continuation vs. reversal patterns
In theory, a symmetrical triangle in an uptrend breaks upward (continuation) and the same shape at the end of a long move can break the other way (reversal). In practice, you cannot know which case you are in until price breaks out. Our bench does not require a prior trend for this pattern, and it records both breakout directions separately. Split by the move before the triangle, daily charts show no clear gap between continuation and reversal. Upside breaks reached the 2:1 target in 33.9% of trades after a rise (2,101 breakouts, +0.17 R) and 34.3% after a decline (3,528 breakouts, +0.20 R). Downside breaks averaged −0.20 R after a rise (2,873 breakouts) and −0.15 R after a decline (1,680 breakouts). This split is descriptive and not corrected for multiple testing.
Understanding market indecision
The side of the break stays close to even. On daily charts, we counted 5,641 upside breakouts against 4,557 downside breakouts, or 55.3% upward. On random prices, in our three self-test worlds, 47 to 50% of symmetrical triangles exit upward, so the small tilt is close to what you would expect from markets that rise over time. On hourly charts, it was the reverse, with 12,937 downside breaks against 12,549 upside ones. Not every symmetrical triangle pattern completes: 99.1% of daily patterns broke out of their lines within the time our rule allows, and the others faded away without a clean break.
Bullish vs. bearish symmetrical triangles: how to tell them apart
A bullish symmetrical triangle and a bearish symmetrical triangle look the same while they form. Classic analysis sometimes labels them by the trend before the pattern, but the only objective difference is the side of the breakout, and that is how this page and our bench label them.
Identifying the bullish breakout
A bullish breakout is a closing price above the upper trendline. Classic analysis prefers the bull case when the pattern forms inside an uptrend, after a rally, and when the breakout bar closes well above the line rather than just touching it. On our daily data, that preference does not show: upside breaks reached the 2:1 target in 33.9% of trades after a rise and 34.3% after a decline, a descriptive split. The stop for a long trade goes under the lower line.
Identifying the bearish breakdown
A bearish breakdown is a closing price below the lower trendline. It is the mirror image of the breakout: a short entry at the close, a stop above the upper line, a target below. On daily charts, bearish breakdowns did worse in absolute terms than bullish breakouts, because the assets we tested drifted upward over their history: the short trade fights that drift.
How to trade the symmetrical triangle pattern
The classic plan waits for a close outside the symmetrical triangle pattern, enters in the direction of the breakout, places a stop on the other side of the pattern and aims for a target based on the height of the pattern. This is close to the trade our bench simulates on every breakout, with a 2:1 target instead of the measured move.
Step 1: identifying the setup
Draw the upper line through at least two lower highs in price and the lower line through at least two higher lows. Each touch should be a clear swing point, not a single wick that sticks out. If you need to force the lines, it is not a symmetrical triangle.
Step 2: waiting for a confirmed breakout
Step 3: setting entry and stop-loss levels
- Entry: at the close of the breakout bar, or on a retest of the broken line if you prefer a tighter stop.
- Stop loss: on the other side of the pattern, under the lower line for a long trade, above the upper line for a short trade.
- Target: the measured move, or a fixed multiple of the risk such as 2:1.
- Entry
- Close outside the lines, in the direction of the breakout
- Stop loss (SL)
- On the opposite line, at its level on the breakout bar
- Target (TP)
- Twice the risk (2:1)
A clean case from our bench: US stocksChosen on its shape alone, never on the outcome. Stock prices are adjusted for splits and dividends, so they can differ from the prices quoted at the time.
Because the stop sits across the whole pattern, it is wide. Size the position on the distance between entry and stop, so that a loss costs a small, fixed share of the account.
Step 4: managing the open trade
On daily charts, upside trades that reached the 2:1 target took a median of 23 days, and trades that were stopped took a median of 14 days. Of the upside trades that hit their stop, 22.8% had first been up 1 R. Decide in advance whether you will move the stop or take partial profits, and stick to it.
Calculating price targets for symmetrical triangles
The measuring technique takes the height of the symmetrical triangle at its widest part, at the start of the pattern, and projects it from the breakout point. If the pattern is 10 dollars high and price breaks out at 50, the target is 60 for a bullish breakout and 40 for a bearish breakdown. A second method draws a line parallel to the lower trendline from the first high: the target is where that line meets price later.
Our bench tests a simpler target based on a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio. Because the stop sits on the far side of the pattern, which is narrow near the apex, the 2:1 target can sit closer than the measured move; we have not compared the two. Treat any target as a reasonable level to take profits, not as a forecast.
Symmetrical triangle trading strategies
Three strategies use the pattern as an entry signal. Each one should be tested on your own market before you risk money on it.
Strategy 1: the breakout close
The simplest strategy: enter at the close of the first bar outside the lines, in the direction of the break, with the stop on the other side. It is the version we measured on every occurrence.
Strategy 2: the retest entry
Within 20 bars, price came back to the broken line after 71.3% of hourly upside breakouts. On hourly charts, the bar after an upside breakout rose only 44.8% of the time, against 48.2% for random bars on the same assets. A trader who waits for that pullback gets a better entry and a tighter stop, at the cost of missing the breakouts that never look back.
Strategy 3: trading with the larger trend
A trend filter takes breakouts only in the direction of the long-term trend, for example longs above a rising 200-day moving average. We tested this filter on hourly charts: upside breakouts above the 200-bar average reached the 2:1 target 31.3% of the time, against 33.5% below it. The filter is logical, but it did not separate good and bad triangles in our data.
Technical indicators to combine with the pattern
Classic analysis combines the formation with technical indicators that describe momentum, volatility or the trend around it, so that the breakout signal has a second reason behind it.
Momentum indicators
The relative strength index (RSI) and the MACD are classic choices. A bullish breakout with the RSI rising above 50, or a MACD crossing up, indicates that momentum follows the move; a breakout with fading momentum is a possible warning. We have not tested these filters: if you use one, test it on your own market first.
Volatility and the squeeze
Volatility contracts while the pattern forms, which is why Bollinger Bands can narrow inside the formation. The volatility contraction pattern is built on the same idea. Low volatility is not a direction: it indicates that a larger move is possible, not which way it will occur.
Support and resistance after the breakout
Once broken, the upper line is read as support after a bullish breakout, and the lower line as resistance after a bearish one; our bench measures how often price came back to the breakout level (the throwback column of the After the breakout table), not whether that level then held. That level serves for the retest entry, and the next major support or resistance level above or below for the first target.
Common mistakes when trading triangle patterns
A few errors are easy to avoid.
Entering trades before confirmation
Ignoring the broader market trend
A breakout against a strong trend on a higher timeframe, for example a bullish breakout inside a weekly downtrend, is fighting the larger flow of orders in the classic reading; we have not tested the trend of a higher timeframe. On weekly charts, downside breaks reached the 2:1 target 20.5% of the time, against 46.0% for upside breaks: in rising markets, short trades start with a handicap.
Overlooking false breakouts
False breakouts are a major risk. In the case studies of the Real examples section, one short trade was stopped seven days after entry, with price still above the entry 10 days after the signal, and one long trade was up more than 1 R before it was stopped. No filter we tested removed false breakouts: volume, trend and pattern height each moved the 2:1 hit rate in some groups, sometimes by more than 10 points on a single market, and short triangles reached the target more often than tall ones on downside breaks, but none of these splits separated good triangles from bad ones.
Drawing the lines to fit
Moving the lines after the fact to make a breakout look clean is a form of self-deception. Draw the lines before the breakout and keep them.
Symmetrical triangle vs. other chart patterns
- PennantBullish or bearishBullish, Upward breakout, 10-bar move, daily No clear edgeBearish, Downward breakout, 10-bar move, daily No clear edge
- FlagBullish or bearishBullish, Upward breakout, 10-bar move, daily No clear edgeBearish, Downward breakout, 10-bar move, daily No clear edge
- RectangleNeutralUpward breakout, 10-bar move, daily No clear edgeDownward breakout, 10-bar move, daily No clear edge
Symmetrical triangle vs. pennant
A pennant is a small symmetrical triangle that follows a sharp move, the pole. The pennant is short and is meant to continue the pole; the symmetrical triangle is larger, has no pole and no expected direction. On daily charts, bull pennant breakouts reached the 2:1 target 37.3% of the time against 35.1% for the same trade on random dates.
Symmetrical triangle vs. ascending and descending triangles
The ascending triangle has a flat upper line and is read as bullish; the descending triangle has a flat lower line and is read as bearish. On daily charts, ascending triangle upside breakouts reached the 2:1 target 33.0% of the time against 33.6% at random, and descending triangle downside breaks 22.4% against 21.6%. None of these results, nor the daily symmetrical triangle with all markets together, beat the same trade on random dates in average result per trade after our correction, and no row of the symmetrical triangle did on any market or timeframe (see Best timeframes for trading symmetrical triangles).
Symmetrical triangle vs. wedges and flags
In a wedge, both price lines slope in the same direction; in a flag, the lines are parallel. A rectangle has two flat lines. The trade plan is the same for all of them: wait for the close outside, stop on the other side.
Best timeframes for trading symmetrical triangles
Weekly patterns had the best raw results: upside breakouts reached the 2:1 target 46.0% of the time. But random weeks with the same trade reached it 41.0% of the time. Their average result per trade (+0.49 R against +0.32 R) is within the margin of error. A higher timeframe gives larger moves and a market that drifts upward over more bars, not a better pattern. On hourly charts, the pattern is frequent but small, and costs weigh more on each trade.
A few rows read Promising, and none survives our correction. Two of them: on 4-hour charts, 3,395 downside breaks (3,379 closed trades) reached the 2:1 target 29.7% of the time, against 26.4% for random dates, with an average result per trade of +0.11 R against 0.00 R. The bench reads it promising: the gap passes a simple test but not our correction, so treat it as a lead to test, not a rule. On hourly charts, all markets together, 12,937 downside breaks reached the target 30.9% of the time against 27.8%, read promising for the same reason. Weekly samples are too small to read on every market but US stocks: weekly index charts gave only 9 upside breakouts. On weekly US stock charts (888 upside and 588 downside breakouts), the 2:1 trade reads no clear edge on both sides.
Pros and cons of the symmetrical triangle
Advantages
- A clear structure: two lines, a breakout level on each side, a defined stop, which suits both bullish and bearish trades.
- Forms on every market and timeframe, including crypto, forex and stocks, though with no proven edge in our tests on any market or timeframe.
- The stop is objective: the other side of the triangle.
Limitations
- No direction until the breakout, so no early entry.
- On its own, it showed no confirmed edge on any market or timeframe: the promising rows, such as the 2:1 trade on hourly downside breaks or the 10-bar move after daily upside breaks on US stocks, failed our correction for multiple testing. Weekly samples are small on every market but US stocks: on weekly index charts breaking up, the bench opened only 9 trades, too few to interpret.
- The stop is wide: it sits on the far side of the triangle.
Reliability and success rates
The symmetrical triangle is not reliable on its own: in nearly every market and timeframe we tested, it moved in the direction of the breakout about as often as random entries on the same assets, or slightly less often on hourly charts, by gaps in average excess return that are not statistically significant. Some raw gaps look larger on small samples, such as daily ETF upside breaks (63.3% against 56.3%), daily ETF and index downside breaks (51.9% against 43.2%, 51.9% against 42.6%) and daily forex downside breaks (55.2% against 50.0%), but none of them passes that test. One row was flagged as different from chance, by a gap that fails our correction for multiple testing: daily upside breaks on US stocks moved the expected way a little more often (54.5% of 4,840 cases against 54.1%, an average excess return of +0.23%). Outside US stocks, weekly samples by market were too small to interpret: on crypto, the bench counted only 15 downside and 13 upside breaks, on indices 9 upside breaks and on forex 17 downside breaks, under the 30 cases we need before reading a result. On weekly US stock charts, 888 upside and 588 downside breaks were enough to read: the 10-bar move reads no clear edge on both sides. No row passed our correction, on the 10-bar move or on the 2:1 trade. Here are the numbers from our test bench.
On upward breakouts: hit the 2:1 target, compared with the same trade on random dates.
Measured on 5,611 closed trades on 5,641 daily symmetrical triangle occurrences with upward breakouts across 1,741 assets. The same trade on random dates on the same assets is the honest baseline.
No clear edgeOn downward breakouts: hit the 2:1 target, compared with the same trade on random dates.
Measured on 4,475 closed trades on 4,557 daily symmetrical triangle occurrences with downward breakouts across 1,702 assets. The same trade on random dates on the same assets is the honest baseline.
No clear edgeSymmetrical triangle against random bars on the same assets, by market, on daily candles. Bars of almost the same length mean no edge.
- All markets
- Crypto
- US stocks
- Forex
- ETFs
- Indices
- Commodities
- All markets
- Crypto
- US stocks
- Forex
- ETFs
- Indices
- Commodities
- All markets
- Crypto
- US stocks
- Forex
- ETFs
- Indices
- Commodities
- All markets
- Crypto
- US stocks
- Forex
- ETFs
- Indices
- Commodities
All statistics
Full results for the symmetrical triangle pattern, market by market
Every occurrence our rule finds on full price history, compared with what the same assets did on random bars. A pattern only earns an edge if it beats random entries after correcting for the thousands of tests we run.
Our verdict
Not a reliable signal on its own here. Use it as context, not as a trigger.
Downward breakouts (4,557 occurrences): 10-bar move No clear edge 2:1 trade No clear edge. Its figures are in the tables below.
Symmetrical triangle: 5,641 occurrences tested
Neutral pattern · All markets · Daily · Upward breakout · 1,741 assets · 1970-11 to 2026-10
What this means. No measurable difference from the rest of its market over the next 10 bars.
Timeline, upward breakout
- Pattern length, first swing to breakout
- 59 days · middle half 41 to 100 · on 5,641 occurrences
- Breakout, after the last swing
- 4 days · middle half 2 to 7 · on 5,641 occurrences
- Time to the 2:1 target, when hit
- 23 days · middle half 12 to 44 · on 1,912 trades that hit it
- Time to the stop, when hit
- 14 days · middle half 6 to 30 · on 3,068 trades that hit it
- Time in the trade, all exits
- 21 days · middle half 8 to 50 · on 5,611 trades
- Measured-move target reached, when hit
- 35 days · middle half 18 to 59 · on the occurrences that reached it
- Pattern height projected from the breakout
Size and trade path, upward breakout
- Pattern height
- 24.0% · middle half 15.6% to 38.2% · on 5,641 occurrences
- Best open profit during the trade
- 1.18 R · middle half 0.39 R to 2.05 R · on 5,611 trades
- Stopped trades that were first up 1 R
- 22.8% · on 3,068 stopped trades
- Trades a stop moved to breakeven at +1 R would have closed flat instead of at a loss
Medians, each on the cases named on its line; "middle half" spans the 25th to 75th percentile; no value under 30 cases.
Timeline, downward breakout
- Pattern length, first swing to breakout
- 58 days · middle half 40 to 93 · on 4,557 occurrences
- Breakout, after the last swing
- 4 days · middle half 2 to 7 · on 4,557 occurrences
- Time to the 2:1 target, when hit
- 19 days · middle half 9 to 38 · on 1,044 trades that hit it
- Time to the stop, when hit
- 13 days · middle half 6 to 28 · on 2,986 trades that hit it
- Time in the trade, all exits
- 17 days · middle half 7 to 42 · on 4,475 trades
- Measured-move target reached, when hit
- 29 days · middle half 15 to 53 · on the occurrences that reached it
- Pattern height projected from the breakout
Size and trade path, downward breakout
- Pattern height
- 27.2% · middle half 17.3% to 46.4% · on 4,557 occurrences
- Best open profit during the trade
- 0.77 R · middle half 0.26 R to 1.89 R · on 4,475 trades
- Stopped trades that were first up 1 R
- 20.4% · on 2,986 stopped trades
- Trades a stop moved to breakeven at +1 R would have closed flat instead of at a loss
Medians, each on the cases named on its line; "middle half" spans the 25th to 75th percentile; no value under 30 cases.
How we detect it. Four to six alternating swing points (four need a fifth touch of a line): falling upper line, rising lower line (each moves at least 30% of the height), final width at most 60% of the initial one. Every swing point lies within 10% of the pattern height of its line, no close strays more than 10% outside the lines while the pattern forms, the pattern is at least 3 ATR tall with at least 3 bars between swing points, and the breakout comes within half the pattern duration after the last point. Breakout = first close outside the lines, before the apex. The standard grade, which accepts most counted occurrences, adds a looser pass: at least 2 ATR tall, swing points within 15% of their lines.
All measurements (40 rows)
10-bar move: did price go the expected way?
| Market | Occurrences | Pattern | Random bars | Excess | 10-bar move verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto · 1-hour · Upward breakout | 11,204 | 47.5% | 48.3% | +0.03% | No clear edge |
| Crypto · 1-hour · Downward breakout | 11,641 | 50.5% | 50.7% | +0.02% | No clear edge |
| Forex · 1-hour · Upward breakout | 1,345 | 50.4% | 50.7% | −0.01% | No clear edge |
| Forex · 1-hour · Downward breakout | 1,296 | 50.3% | 49.3% | +0.01% | No clear edge |
| All markets · 1-hour · Upward breakout | 12,549 | 47.8% | 48.5% | +0.03% | No clear edge |
| All markets · 1-hour · Downward breakout | 12,937 | 50.5% | 50.6% | +0.02% | No clear edge |
| Crypto · 4-hour · Upward breakout | 2,931 | 48.4% | 47.6% | +0.18% | No clear edge |
| Crypto · 4-hour · Downward breakout | 3,050 | 51.8% | 52.1% | +0.13% | No clear edge |
| Forex · 4-hour · Upward breakout | 332 | 51.1% | 50.8% | −0.01% | No clear edge |
| Forex · 4-hour · Downward breakout | 345 | 51.6% | 49.4% | +0.05% | No clear edge |
| All markets · 4-hour · Upward breakout | 3,263 | 48.7% | 48.0% | +0.16% | No clear edge |
| All markets · 4-hour · Downward breakout | 3,395 | 51.8% | 51.8% | +0.12% | No clear edge |
| Crypto · Daily · Upward breakout | 423 | 45.6% | 45.0% | +0.33% | No clear edge |
| Crypto · Daily · Downward breakout | 445 | 54.9% | 55.7% | −0.02% | No clear edge |
| US stocks · Daily · Upward breakout | 4,840 | 54.5% | 54.1% | +0.23% | Promising |
| US stocks · Daily · Downward breakout | 3,790 | 46.6% | 45.8% | +0.08% | No clear edge |
| ETFs · Daily · Upward breakout | 177 | 63.3% | 56.3% | +0.44% | No clear edge |
| ETFs · Daily · Downward breakout | 135 | 51.9% | 43.2% | +0.17% | No clear edge |
| Indices · Daily · Upward breakout | 87 | 56.3% | 57.2% | −0.30% | No clear edge |
| Indices · Daily · Downward breakout | 77 | 51.9% | 42.6% | −0.02% | No clear edge |
| Forex · Daily · Upward breakout | 50 | 54.2% | 51.1% | +0.19% | No clear edge |
| Forex · Daily · Downward breakout | 59 | 55.2% | 50.0% | +0.22% | No clear edge |
| Commodities · Daily · Upward breakout | 64 | 54.7% | 51.9% | +0.45% | No clear edge |
| Commodities · Daily · Downward breakout | 51 | 49.0% | 48.7% | +0.05% | No clear edge |
| All markets · Daily · Upward breakout | 5,641 | 54.1% | 53.5% | +0.24% | No clear edge |
| All markets · Daily · Downward breakout | 4,557 | 47.8% | 46.7% | +0.07% | No clear edge |
| Crypto · Weekly · Upward breakout | 13 | 66.7% | 39.8% | +30.66% | Not enough data |
| Crypto · Weekly · Downward breakout | 15 | 86.7% | 59.1% | −3.21% | Not enough data |
| US stocks · Weekly · Upward breakout | 888 | 59.9% | 57.5% | +0.11% | No clear edge |
| US stocks · Weekly · Downward breakout | 588 | 42.1% | 44.0% | +0.17% | No clear edge |
| ETFs · Weekly · Upward breakout | 25 | 56.0% | 59.4% | −0.21% | Not enough data |
| ETFs · Weekly · Downward breakout | 27 | 55.6% | 41.6% | +0.92% | Not enough data |
| Indices · Weekly · Upward breakout | 9 | 44.4% | 60.8% | −0.44% | Not enough data |
| Indices · Weekly · Downward breakout | 9 | 88.9% | 37.8% | +3.95% | Not enough data |
| Forex · Weekly · Upward breakout | 8 | 62.5% | 51.7% | +2.12% | Not enough data |
| Forex · Weekly · Downward breakout | 17 | 52.9% | 49.5% | +0.05% | Not enough data |
| Commodities · Weekly · Upward breakout | 11 | 27.3% | 53.4% | +0.20% | Not enough data |
| Commodities · Weekly · Downward breakout | 15 | 53.3% | 46.7% | +4.22% | Not enough data |
| All markets · Weekly · Upward breakout | 954 | 59.3% | 57.3% | +0.50% | No clear edge |
| All markets · Weekly · Downward breakout | 671 | 44.8% | 44.3% | +0.27% | No clear edge |
2:1 trade: target hit and average result
| Market | Trades | Target hit | Same trade, random dates | Per trade | 2:1 trade verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto · 1-hour · Upward breakout | 11,194 | 32.4% | 29.5% | +0.08 R vs +0.01 R | No clear edge |
| Crypto · 1-hour · Downward breakout | 11,632 | 30.9% | 27.9% | +0.11 R vs +0.02 R | Promising |
| Forex · 1-hour · Upward breakout | 1,344 | 27.8% | 26.8% | +0.02 R vs −0.02 R | No clear edge |
| Forex · 1-hour · Downward breakout | 1,295 | 30.5% | 27.0% | +0.10 R vs −0.03 R | Promising |
| All markets · 1-hour · Upward breakout | 12,538 | 31.9% | 29.2% | +0.07 R vs +0.01 R | Promising |
| All markets · 1-hour · Downward breakout | 12,927 | 30.9% | 27.8% | +0.11 R vs +0.02 R | Promising |
| Crypto · 4-hour · Upward breakout | 2,930 | 35.6% | 32.7% | +0.15 R vs +0.06 R | No clear edge |
| Crypto · 4-hour · Downward breakout | 3,034 | 29.3% | 26.3% | +0.11 R vs +0.01 R | No clear edge |
| Forex · 4-hour · Upward breakout | 330 | 31.8% | 25.9% | +0.14 R vs −0.04 R | Promising |
| Forex · 4-hour · Downward breakout | 345 | 32.5% | 27.3% | +0.13 R vs −0.02 R | No clear edge |
| All markets · 4-hour · Upward breakout | 3,260 | 35.2% | 32.0% | +0.15 R vs +0.05 R | No clear edge |
| All markets · 4-hour · Downward breakout | 3,379 | 29.7% | 26.4% | +0.11 R vs 0.00 R | Promising |
| Crypto · Daily · Upward breakout | 421 | 35.9% | 32.3% | +0.09 R vs −0.01 R | No clear edge |
| Crypto · Daily · Downward breakout | 412 | 31.3% | 24.8% | +0.18 R vs −0.03 R | No clear edge |
| US stocks · Daily · Upward breakout | 4,815 | 33.6% | 33.1% | +0.19 R vs +0.16 R | No clear edge |
| US stocks · Daily · Downward breakout | 3,744 | 22.2% | 22.7% | −0.23 R vs −0.19 R | No clear edge |
| ETFs · Daily · Upward breakout | 177 | 38.4% | 34.3% | +0.34 R vs +0.19 R | No clear edge |
| ETFs · Daily · Downward breakout | 135 | 27.4% | 26.2% | −0.11 R vs −0.11 R | No clear edge |
| Indices · Daily · Upward breakout | 87 | 40.2% | 29.7% | +0.41 R vs +0.09 R | No clear edge |
| Indices · Daily · Downward breakout | 76 | 30.3% | 29.9% | −0.04 R vs −0.05 R | No clear edge |
| Forex · Daily · Upward breakout | 49 | 26.5% | 29.6% | +0.07 R vs +0.09 R | No clear edge |
| Forex · Daily · Downward breakout | 57 | 19.3% | 26.0% | −0.26 R vs −0.05 R | No clear edge |
| Commodities · Daily · Upward breakout | 62 | 40.3% | 37.5% | +0.27 R vs +0.17 R | No clear edge |
| Commodities · Daily · Downward breakout | 51 | 25.5% | 21.1% | −0.02 R vs −0.17 R | No clear edge |
| All markets · Daily · Upward breakout | 5,611 | 34.1% | 33.1% | +0.19 R vs +0.15 R | No clear edge |
| All markets · Daily · Downward breakout | 4,475 | 23.3% | 23.1% | −0.18 R vs −0.17 R | No clear edge |
| Crypto · Weekly · Upward breakout | 12 | 41.7% | 41.0% | +0.25 R vs +0.24 R | Not enough data |
| Crypto · Weekly · Downward breakout | 5 | 0.0% | 31.7% | −0.48 R vs +0.10 R | Not enough data |
| US stocks · Weekly · Upward breakout | 861 | 46.2% | 40.7% | +0.49 R vs +0.31 R | No clear edge |
| US stocks · Weekly · Downward breakout | 537 | 18.6% | 21.5% | −0.35 R vs −0.24 R | No clear edge |
| ETFs · Weekly · Upward breakout | 25 | 48.0% | 49.0% | +0.54 R vs +0.54 R | Not enough data |
| ETFs · Weekly · Downward breakout | 26 | 38.5% | 19.2% | +0.21 R vs −0.40 R | Not enough data |
| Indices · Weekly · Upward breakout | 9 | 22.2% | 47.2% | +0.21 R vs +0.64 R | Not enough data |
| Indices · Weekly · Downward breakout | 9 | 88.9% | 30.6% | +1.67 R vs −0.08 R | Not enough data |
| Forex · Weekly · Upward breakout | 8 | 62.5% | 35.4% | +0.88 R vs +0.25 R | Not enough data |
| Forex · Weekly · Downward breakout | 17 | 11.8% | 20.1% | −0.66 R vs −0.34 R | Not enough data |
| Commodities · Weekly · Upward breakout | 11 | 36.4% | 43.2% | +0.19 R vs +0.30 R | Not enough data |
| Commodities · Weekly · Downward breakout | 15 | 33.3% | 31.7% | −0.06 R vs −0.03 R | Not enough data |
| All markets · Weekly · Upward breakout | 926 | 46.0% | 41.0% | +0.49 R vs +0.32 R | No clear edge |
| All markets · Weekly · Downward breakout | 609 | 20.5% | 21.8% | −0.30 R vs −0.24 R | No clear edge |
After the breakout
| Market | Occurrences | False starts | Same, random dates | Throwbacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto · 1-hour · Upward breakout | 11,204 | 61.1% | 63.1% | 71.4% |
| Crypto · 1-hour · Downward breakout | 11,641 | 60.5% | 63.1% | 71.0% |
| Forex · 1-hour · Upward breakout | 1,345 | 61.3% | 62.5% | 70.8% |
| Forex · 1-hour · Downward breakout | 1,296 | 59.8% | 63.0% | 72.1% |
| All markets · 1-hour · Upward breakout | 12,549 | 61.1% | 63.0% | 71.3% |
| All markets · 1-hour · Downward breakout | 12,937 | 60.4% | 63.1% | 71.1% |
| Crypto · 4-hour · Upward breakout | 2,931 | 60.2% | 62.7% | 70.7% |
| Crypto · 4-hour · Downward breakout | 3,050 | 61.2% | 64.4% | 70.4% |
| Forex · 4-hour · Upward breakout | 332 | 58.6% | 62.7% | 76.2% |
| Forex · 4-hour · Downward breakout | 345 | 58.2% | 60.9% | 71.0% |
| All markets · 4-hour · Upward breakout | 3,263 | 60.1% | 62.7% | 71.2% |
| All markets · 4-hour · Downward breakout | 3,395 | 60.9% | 64.0% | 70.5% |
| Crypto · Daily · Upward breakout | 423 | 62.2% | 65.4% | 73.7% |
| Crypto · Daily · Downward breakout | 445 | 58.5% | 65.6% | 67.8% |
| US stocks · Daily · Upward breakout | 4,840 | 53.8% | 55.7% | 72.5% |
| US stocks · Daily · Downward breakout | 3,790 | 69.3% | 68.9% | 71.2% |
| ETFs · Daily · Upward breakout | 177 | 49.7% | 56.0% | 73.0% |
| ETFs · Daily · Downward breakout | 135 | 60.2% | 64.4% | 66.7% |
| Indices · Daily · Upward breakout | 87 | 49.4% | 60.0% | 59.3% |
| Indices · Daily · Downward breakout | 77 | 64.5% | 65.8% | 75.0% |
| Forex · Daily · Upward breakout | 50 | 55.3% | 60.0% | 73.2% |
| Forex · Daily · Downward breakout | 59 | 67.3% | 60.7% | 69.8% |
| Commodities · Daily · Upward breakout | 64 | 55.0% | 55.0% | 68.9% |
| Commodities · Daily · Downward breakout | 51 | 61.7% | 66.0% | 77.6% |
| All markets · Daily · Upward breakout | 5,641 | 54.3% | 56.5% | 72.3% |
| All markets · Daily · Downward breakout | 4,557 | 67.8% | 68.2% | 70.9% |
| Crypto · Weekly · Upward breakout | 13 | 30.0% | 65.0% | 63.6% |
| Crypto · Weekly · Downward breakout | 15 | 44.4% | 77.8% | 81.8% |
| US stocks · Weekly · Upward breakout | 888 | 44.5% | 51.4% | 68.2% |
| US stocks · Weekly · Downward breakout | 588 | 71.3% | 68.1% | 65.7% |
| ETFs · Weekly · Upward breakout | 25 | 50.0% | 52.0% | 66.7% |
| ETFs · Weekly · Downward breakout | 27 | 62.5% | 75.3% | 69.2% |
| Indices · Weekly · Upward breakout | 9 | 55.6% | 44.4% | 77.8% |
| Indices · Weekly · Downward breakout | 9 | 22.2% | 69.4% | 55.6% |
| Forex · Weekly · Upward breakout | 8 | 50.0% | 72.6% | 85.7% |
| Forex · Weekly · Downward breakout | 17 | 91.7% | 73.5% | 81.3% |
| Commodities · Weekly · Upward breakout | 11 | 80.0% | 50.8% | 63.6% |
| Commodities · Weekly · Downward breakout | 15 | 45.5% | 62.2% | 84.6% |
| All markets · Weekly · Upward breakout | 954 | 45.1% | 51.6% | 68.3% |
| All markets · Weekly · Downward breakout | 671 | 69.6% | 68.6% | 66.8% |
Data updated November 5, 2026 · code version c2a1683f · Read the methodology. We measure every pattern on crypto and forex (1-hour, 4-hour, daily and weekly charts) and US stocks, ETFs, indices and commodities (daily and weekly charts). A market or timeframe from that list missing from the tables above had no occurrence.
What you often read
“A symmetrical triangle pattern breakout is a reliable trade signal.”
What our data shows
On 5,611 daily closed trades with upward breakouts, the 2:1 trade hit its target 34.1% of the time, against 33.1% for the same trade on random dates: no clear edge, since the average result per trade is not statistically significant.
On 4,475 daily closed trades with downward breakouts, the 2:1 trade hit its target 23.3% of the time, against 23.1% for the same trade on random dates: no clear edge, since the average result per trade is not statistically significant.
Table quoted in the text (verdicts and every market: see All measurements)
| Market, timeframe and breakout side | Breakouts | Moved with the breakout 10 bars later | Random bars | Closed trades | 2:1 target hit | Same trade, random dates | Expectancy (pattern vs random) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All markets, daily, up | 5,641 | 54.1% | 53.5% | 5,611 | 34.1% | 33.1% | +0.19 R vs +0.15 R |
| All markets, daily, down | 4,557 | 47.8% | 46.7% | 4,475 | 23.3% | 23.1% | −0.18 R vs −0.17 R |
| US stocks, daily, up | 4,840 | 54.5% | 54.1% | 4,815 | 33.6% | 33.1% | +0.19 R vs +0.16 R |
| Crypto, daily, up | 423 | 45.6% | 45.0% | 421 | 35.9% | 32.3% | +0.09 R vs −0.01 R |
| Crypto, daily, down | 445 | 54.9% | 55.7% | 412 | 31.3% | 24.8% | +0.18 R vs −0.03 R |
| Crypto, hourly, up | 11,204 | 47.5% | 48.3% | 11,194 | 32.4% | 29.5% | +0.08 R vs +0.01 R |
| Crypto, hourly, down | 11,641 | 50.5% | 50.7% | 11,632 | 30.9% | 27.9% | +0.11 R vs +0.02 R |
| Forex, hourly, up | 1,345 | 50.4% | 50.7% | 1,344 | 27.8% | 26.8% | +0.02 R vs −0.02 R |
| Forex, hourly, down | 1,296 | 50.3% | 49.3% | 1,295 | 30.5% | 27.0% | +0.10 R vs −0.03 R |
| All markets, weekly, up | 954 | 59.3% | 57.3% | 926 | 46.0% | 41.0% | +0.49 R vs +0.32 R |
| All markets, weekly, down | 671 | 44.8% | 44.3% | 609 | 20.5% | 21.8% | −0.30 R vs −0.24 R |
Read the table in pairs of columns. On daily charts, 54.1% of upside breakouts were higher 10 days later. That sounds bullish until you see that 53.5% of random days on the same assets were too. The excess return over the rest of the market after 10 days is +0.24%, with a 95% confidence interval that runs from just below zero to +0.49%: no clear edge.
The trade columns need the same care. The daily upside trade had an expectancy of +0.19 R per trade before costs, but the same entry, stop and target on random dates averaged +0.15 R. Most of the profit came from the long-term rise of the assets, not from the symmetrical triangle. The small difference is within the margin of error, so we do not count it as an edge. In every hourly group, the 2:1 target was hit more often than at random, but the expectancy stayed small, at most +0.11 R per trade before fees, and none of these gaps survived our correction for the thousands of tests we run.
Academic work points the same way: in "Foundations of Technical Analysis" (Journal of Finance, 2000), Andrew Lo, Harry Mamaysky and Jiang Wang detected triangles and other chart patterns automatically on US stocks and found only modest incremental information in them, without showing that they could be traded for a profit.
Do volume and pattern height matter?
On hourly charts, downside breaks on high volume (above 1.5 times the average) reached the 2:1 target 29.8% of the time, against 31.5% on normal volume. Upside breaks: 30.7% against 34.0%. Volume did not raise the target rate; on downside breaks, high-volume trades averaged +0.14 R against +0.10 R on normal volume. Short patterns (below the median height) did better than tall ones on downside breaks, 34.7% against 27.0%. These breakdowns are descriptive and not corrected for the number of tests.
Is the symmetrical triangle reliable in crypto and forex?
Not on its own. On 579 crypto coins since 2017, hourly breakouts in both directions gave an average excess return over the rest of the market that does not pass our statistical test. On the 2:1 trade, hourly crypto upside breakouts read No clear edge (32.4% against 29.5%, +0.08 R against +0.01 R per trade before costs), a gap that does not pass our statistical test. On hourly forex, 1,345 upside breakouts on 25 currency pairs (1,344 closed trades) reached the target 27.8% of the time against 26.8% at random, but their average result per trade (+0.02 R against −0.02 R before costs) does not pass our statistical test. Hourly forex downside breakouts read Promising (+0.10 R against −0.03 R), a gap that passes a simple test but not our correction. Daily crypto upside breakouts hit the target a little more often (35.9% against 32.3%), but their average result per trade (+0.09 R against −0.01 R) does not pass our statistical test. The full table, with every market, timeframe and verdict, is in the statistics section of this page. The method is published in our methodology.
Real examples of the symmetrical triangle
The gallery in this section shows real symmetrical triangle patterns picked by our bench (best and worst results, textbook shapes, most recent, random draws), with their actual outcome. The case studies are on daily crypto charts: recorded market sessions, not simulations.
Real occurrences from our test bench, each on its market's main timeframe. Crypto and US stock examples come from liquid assets only (the largest coins, the most traded stocks). Best and Worst are the best and worst 2:1 trade results, Textbook the cleanest shapes (chosen on geometry alone, never on the outcome), Most recent the latest detections among the assets the gallery draws from, Typical a random draw. Shaded area: the pattern. Dashed lines: entry, stop loss (SL) and 2:1 target (TP) of the tested trade. Dotted line: 10 bars after the signal. A result above +2 R or below −1 R means a bar opened past the target or the stop, and the trade was closed at that open. Stock prices are adjusted for splits and dividends, so they can differ from the prices quoted at the time. We left out 1 card with a shape that does not read as the definition on this page. It still counts in the statistics, and is not replaced: our bench picks a fixed number of cards per category.
Case study: a bullish breakout that reached its target
UNI/USDT made higher lows at 5.899 (April 13, 2024), 6.536 (May 1) and 6.735 (May 15), and lower highs at 8.358 (April 23) and 7.949 (May 6). On May 18, 2024, it closed at 7.86, above the upper line. The long trade entered at that close, with a stop at 6.877 and a 2:1 target at 9.826. Price reached the target on May 23, 2024, five days after entry, and UNI was 41.3% above the signal close 10 days later.
Case study: a bearish breakdown that failed
TRX/USDT drew lower highs at 0.2614 (January 24, 2025) and 0.2506 (February 21), and higher lows at 0.2011 (February 3) and 0.2171 (February 28). On March 12 it closed at 0.2229, below the lower line. The short trade entered at that close, with a stop at 0.2433 and a 2:1 target at 0.1822. Price dipped to 0.2109 on March 16, then turned up, and on March 19 it traded up to 0.2437 and hit the stop: a full 1 R loss. TRX was 6.3% above the signal close 10 days after the signal. The breakdown was false, and the stop limited the damage.
Case study: a gain that turned into a loss
ETC/USDT closed at 15.81 above the upper line on September 28, 2023, after a symmetrical triangle with higher lows at 13.5 (August 17) and 14.41 (September 11) and lower highs at 17.2 (August 29) and 16.03 (September 18). On October 2 it traded up to 16.89, a gain of more than 1 R. It never reached the 2:1 target at 17.37 and was stopped at 15.03 on October 9, 2023; ten days after the signal it was 2.0% below the signal close. It belongs to the 22.8% of stopped upside trades that had first been up 1 R.
Tools and platforms for pattern recognition
TradingView and other charting platforms have trendline drawing tools, and several scanners flag converging trendlines automatically. As always in technical analysis, check which rule your tool uses: the number of touches, the tolerance around each line and the definition of a breakout differ, and so do the results. Before trading triangles with real money, mark the last 30 symmetrical triangle patterns on your market, write down the entry, stop and target you would have used, and compare the outcome with the same trade on random dates.
Frequently asked questions
Is a symmetrical triangle pattern bullish or bearish?
Neither until the breakout. It becomes bullish on a close above the upper line and bearish on a close below the lower line. On daily charts, a little more than half of completed breakouts were upward.
What is the rule for a valid symmetrical triangle?
At least two lower highs and two higher lows, a falling upper line and a rising lower line that converge, and a breakout close outside the lines before the apex.
How do you calculate the price target?
Measure the height of the pattern at its widest part and project it from the breakout point. Our bench uses a 2:1 reward-to-risk target instead, with the stop on the other side of the triangle.
Is trading volume important for breakout confirmation?
Classic analysis says yes. In our hourly data, breakouts on high volume reached the 2:1 target less often than breakouts on normal volume, so we would not rely on volume alone.
Can a symmetrical triangle result in a false breakout?
Yes, often. On daily upside trades, the median losing trade was stopped within 14 days, and of the upside trades that hit their stop, 22.8% had first reached +1 R.
Is the symmetrical triangle a continuation pattern?
Textbooks classify it as a continuation pattern, but it can break either way. Treat the breakout, not the prior trend, as the event to act on, and remember that neither one showed an edge on our data.
Summary of key points
- A symmetrical triangle has a falling upper line and a rising lower line that converge toward an apex.
- It is neutral: the close outside the lines gives the direction.
- On 5,641 daily upside breakouts, 54.1% were higher 10 days later, against 53.5% for random days.
- On those upside breakouts, the 2:1 trade reached its target 34.1% of the time, against 33.1% for the same trade on random dates; its average result per trade is within the margin of error, before costs, and downside breakouts showed no clear edge (−0.18 R against −0.17 R per trade).
- No filter we tested (volume, trend, pattern height) removed false breakouts; on downside breaks, short triangles reached the target more often than tall ones on hourly, 4-hour and daily charts.
Final thoughts on risk management
If you trade this pattern, treat the symmetrical triangle as a range with two exits and a clear invalidation level, not as a forecast. Define the stop before entry, size the position on that distance, and keep the risk per trade small. The edge, if any, has to come from what you combine it with. Past results, including ours, do not guarantee future results, and this page is educational content, not investment advice.
About the author and the data. Written by Amaury, founder of PatternsWizard, who is passionate about finance, quantitative trading and data analysis. He built the PatternsWizard test bench, which detects each setup with fixed, published rules on full market history: crypto, forex, US stocks, ETFs, indices and commodities. The detection rules and the statistical tests are documented, and every result is compared with random bars on the same assets, with error margins and a correction for multiple testing, and the whole pipeline is checked on random-walk prices, where nothing can be predicted. Statistics on this page were generated on November 5, 2026. The full methodology explains every step.
