How we tested this pattern
- Sample
- 1,196,277 occurrences on 6 markets (crypto, forex, US stocks, ETFs, indices and commodities), 1970 to 2026.
- Detection
- Found by code, never picked by hand: every match of the rule on full price history, winners and losers alike.Body at most 10% of the average range of the previous 10 candles.
- Benchmark
- Each occurrence is compared with the same assets on random bars: the move 10 bars later, and a 2:1 reward-to-risk trade.
- Checks
- Block bootstrap and a correction for the thousands of tests we run, plus a random-walk self-test that the bench passes: on random prices, no pattern should win.
- Updated
- Data updated November 5, 2026, code version c2a1683f. Read the methodology · Raw data (JSON)
At a glance: what textbooks say, what we measured
- Direction
- Neutral
- Occurrences tested
- 1,196,277 occurrences, all markets, daily
- Where it did best
- Crypto, daily: +0.04 R 2:1 trade vs random dates, not proven
- Verdict
- 2:1 trade: No clear edge
On this page
- What is a doji candlestick?
- The anatomy of a doji candle
- What does a doji candle mean for traders?
- The five main types of doji candlesticks
- How to identify a doji on a price chart
- Is a doji candlestick a bullish or a bearish sign?
- Market psychology behind the doji pattern
- How to trade the doji candlestick: a step-by-step guide
- Mistakes to avoid when trading doji patterns
- Doji vs. spinning top: the differences
- Reliability of doji patterns across timeframes
- Real examples from our test bench
- Combining doji candles with technical indicators
- Limitations of using doji signals in isolation
- Summary: mastering the doji candlestick
- Frequently asked questions about the doji candlestick
A doji candlestick is a candle whose opening and closing prices are equal, or almost equal, so the body shrinks to a thin line. Price moved during the period, sometimes a lot, but it closed where it opened. Candlestick analysis reads it as a sign of indecision.
This guide covers what this candlestick pattern is, its anatomy, the five types of doji, how to identify one, the psychology behind it and how to use it in trading. It also shows what happened after it. Our test bench applied the same rule to full price history, which gave 1,196,277 occurrences on daily charts alone across stocks, crypto, forex, ETFs, indices and commodities, and compared the outcome with random days on the same assets.
What is a doji candlestick?
A doji candlestick is a single candle with a very small body: the open and close sit at the same level, or very close to it. The name comes from Japanese candlestick charting, introduced to Western traders by Steve Nison. On a chart it looks like a cross, a plus sign or an inverted cross, according to where the body sits.
This candlestick pattern is not a trading signal on its own. It is a frequent candle, about one daily bar in 7 in our data, and its meaning comes from where it appears: after a lengthy advance, after a sell-off, or in the middle of a flat stretch.
The anatomy of a doji candle
Every candlestick of this kind has three parts:
- The body: the distance between the opening and closing price. Here it is a line or a very thin box. Its color does not change the definition.
- The upper shadow (wick): the distance from the body to the high.
- The lower shadow: the distance from the body to the low.
- Upper wickno length condition
- Tiny body≤ 10% of the average range of the previous 10 candles
- Lower wickno length condition
How small must it be? No universal rule exists. A strict reading asks for exactly the same opening and closing price, which almost never happens on liquid markets. A relative test is more practical. Our bench uses the one from the TA-Lib library: the body is at most 10% of the average height of the previous 10 candles. On the median occurrence we found, the whole bar spanned 1.86% of price, or 0.67 times the average true range (ATR): the typical one is a quieter day than average, not a wide one.
What does a doji candle mean for traders?
It means that neither side won. Buyers drove it up, sellers dragged it down, and the close came back to the open. After a sustained advance or decline, classical candlestick analysis reads that balance as a sign that the side in control may be losing momentum; in a flat stretch, it reads very little into it.
So the candle is a question, not an answer. The next candlesticks give the answer: a close above its high suggests the bulls took over, a close under its low suggests sellers did.
The five main types of doji candlesticks
The types of doji candlestick patterns differ by the length and position of the shadows. Each one tells a slightly different story about the battle between the two sides.
Standard doji
The standard (neutral) version has short shadows of similar length on both sides. It shows a quiet day that stayed near the open throughout. On our data, doji candles of any kind appear once every 7 bars on day charts.
Long-legged doji
The long-legged doji has long shadows on both sides. Price traveled far in both directions, then closed where it opened. It shows more doubt than a standard one, because both sides made a serious attempt and failed. The rickshaw man is a long-legged doji centered in the middle of its span.
Dragonfly doji
The dragonfly doji has a long lower wick and little or no upper shadow: open, high and close sit at the top. Sellers drove it down, buyers brought it all the way back. After a decline, classical candlestick analysis reads the dragonfly doji as a potential bullish turn, close to a bodiless hammer.
Gravestone doji
The gravestone doji is the mirror image: a tall shadow on top and little or no shadow underneath, with open, low and close at the base. Bulls drove it up and failed to hold it. After a rally, classical candlestick analysis reads the gravestone doji as a potential bearish turn, the bodiless version of a shooting star.
Four-price doji
The four-price doji is a single horizontal line: open, high, low and close are the same. It means there was almost no activity, which happens on an illiquid company stock, on holidays or on very short timeframes. It says more about the absence of volume than about the balance between buyers and sellers. Our bench sets aside any bar with no range, so no four-price doji is counted in the statistics on this page.
How to identify a doji on a price chart
To identify this candlestick on a price chart, check three things in order:
- The body is tiny compared with recent candles. Compare it with the average height of the last 10 candles, not with an absolute number: what counts as small on a company stock chart may be large on an hourly forex chart.
- The candle is complete. Intraday, price can sit at the open and then move away before the end of the bar. The candle only exists once the bar has closed.
- The shadows tell you which kind it is. Equal and short: standard. Both tall: long-legged. Only underneath: dragonfly. Only on top: gravestone. None: four-price.
Then look at the setting: the trend before it, the support and resistance levels nearby, and the volume of the bar.
Is a doji candlestick a bullish or a bearish sign?
Neither by itself. The pattern is neutral: it records a balance, not a direction. Classical candlestick analysis infers one from its location. After a sustained rise near resistance, it is read as a potential bearish reversal; after a long decline near support, as a potential bullish reversal. A red one and a green one mean the same thing, because its color carries no weight on such a thin bar.
We do not measure direction because the candle has no bias of its own: there is no expected way for price to go after it. We test the trading setup that follows the first breakout instead.
Market psychology behind the doji pattern
This candlestick is the picture of a bar where buying and selling pressure canceled out. In a steady move, one side dominates and the candlesticks have clear bodies pointing the same way. When this pattern appears after several decisive candlesticks, it shows that the dominant side stopped pushing. Holders may take profits, and others hesitate to add exposure.
That interpretation is reasonable, but it describes one bar. Such doubt can resolve either way, including a simple continuation of the move. Whether candlestick patterns like this one help you anticipate the next move is a question for data, which we answer in the reliability section.
How to trade the doji candlestick: a step-by-step guide
Because these patterns have no direction of their own, the classic trading strategy is to let buyers and sellers choose: place a buy order above its top and a sell order under its bottom, and follow the side that breaks first. This is the strategy our bench simulates on every occurrence.
- Buy stop
- At the pattern high, stop loss at the low
- Sell stop
- At the pattern low, stop loss at the high
- Target (TP)
- Twice the risk (2:1), on the side hit first
A clean case from our bench: US stocksChosen on its shape alone, never on the outcome. Stock prices are adjusted for splits and dividends, so they can differ from the prices quoted at the time.
Step 1: determine the market trend
Before acting, note the trend before the pattern. Classical analysis gives more weight to one that forms after a decisive move than to one inside a sideways range; our bench splits results by the prior rise or decline (below), not by range.
Step 2: locate support and resistance levels
Mark the levels nearby: a prior peak or trough, a round number, a moving average. Classical analysis reads a candle that forms right at one of these levels as the market hesitating where it has hesitated before; our bench does not test levels.
Step 3: look for a confirmation candle
Step 4: set your entry and stop-loss
Buy the break of the top, or sell short the break of the bottom. Put the stop loss at the other end of the pattern: if price breaks one side and then the other, the signal has failed. Size the position on that distance. A target at twice the risk gives a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio. In our tests, trades that reached the target took a median of 3 days, and trades that were stopped took a median of 1 day.
Mistakes to avoid when trading doji patterns
- Treating all these patterns as reversal patterns. One appears between once every 5 and once every 9 bars, according to asset class and timeframe. Most carry no special meaning.
- Acting before the bar is complete. In the middle of the day, the setup is not yet confirmed.
- Placing the stop too tight. The candle range is the natural risk. In our data, of the daily trades that hit their stop, 23.6% had first been up 1 R.
- Ignoring the trend and the levels. Classical analysis reads its meaning from the setting; in our splits, the prior rise or decline barely changed the result.
Doji vs. spinning top: the differences
A spinning top also signals indecision, but it has a small, visible body with shadows longer than it. This pattern has almost none. It is a matter of degree: it is the extreme form of a spinning top. On our data, the two behaved almost alike: the doji setup reached its 2:1 target 33.7% of the time and the spinning top setup 33.4%, both against 33.5% for the same setup on random dates. Neither average result per trade is statistically different from random dates: the doji's (0.00 R against 0.00 R, No clear edge) and the spinning top's (−0.01 R against −0.01 R).
- Spinning TopNeutral2:1 trade, daily No clear edge
- HammerBullish10-bar move, daily No clear edge
- Inverted HammerBullish10-bar move, daily Promising
This candlestick also differs from a hammer. A hammer has a small body at the top of the range, a tall shadow underneath and must follow a decline. A dragonfly doji has the same shape, minus the body. The hammer is a reversal setup by definition, while this candlestick is neutral. In our tests, the hammer's 2:1 trade is rated No clear edge: 35.4% of those setups hit their target against 36.1% on random dates, and its average result per trade (+0.06 R against +0.09 R) is below that of random dates, a gap our test does not separate from chance. The inverted hammer, the cousin of the gravestone doji, is a different case: its daily 2:1 trade, all markets together, is rated No clear edge. Its expectancy is −0.08 R per trade before costs, against −0.08 R for the same trade on random dates: a gap our test does not separate from chance, and a trade that loses money either way.
Reliability of doji patterns across timeframes
This candlestick pattern on its own is not a proven trading signal. On daily charts across all markets, the first-breakout setup did about as well as the same setup on random dates: its average result per trade (0.00 R against 0.00 R) does not pass even a simple test, so its verdict below reads no clear edge. On hourly crypto charts its average result per trade was worse than chance, and that gap does survive the correction. Here are the numbers from our test bench.
Hit the 2:1 target, compared with the same trade on random dates.
Measured on 1,194,453 closed trades on 1,196,277 daily doji occurrences across 2,360 assets. The same trade on random dates on the same assets is the honest baseline.
No clear edgeDoji against random bars on the same assets, by market, on daily candles. Bars of almost the same length mean no edge.
- All markets
- Crypto
- US stocks
- Forex
- ETFs
- Indices
- Commodities
All statistics
Full results for the doji candlestick, market by market
Every occurrence our rule finds on full price history, compared with what the same assets did on random bars. A pattern only earns an edge if it beats random entries after correcting for the thousands of tests we run.
Our verdict
As a 2:1 trade: Not a reliable signal on its own here. Use it as context, not as a trigger.
Doji: 1,196,277 occurrences tested
Neutral pattern · All markets · Daily · 2,360 assets · 1970-03 to 2026-10
What this means. This pattern has no expected direction, so only the 2:1 trade is compared with the same trade on random dates. For the 2:1 trade: no measurable difference from the same trade on random dates on the same assets.
Timeline
- Entry triggered, after the pattern
- 1 day · middle half 1 to 1 · on 1,195,773 triggered entries
- Stop order beyond the pattern's extreme. 1,320 of these entries are not among the 1,194,453 trades: still open at the end of our data, or left out by the trade rules.
- Time to the 2:1 target, when hit
- 3 days · middle half 1 to 5 · on 402,294 trades that hit it
- Time to the stop, when hit
- 1 day · middle half 0 to 3 · on 791,230 trades that hit it
- Time in the trade, all exits
- 2 days · middle half 1 to 4 · on 1,194,453 trades
Size and trade path
- Pattern range, high to low
- 1.9% · middle half 1.3% to 2.9% · on 1,196,277 occurrences
- Range vs average bar (ATR)
- 0.67× · middle half 0.53× to 0.84× · on 1,196,277 occurrences
- Best open profit during the trade
- 0.97 R · middle half 0.19 R to 2.15 R · on 1,194,453 trades
- Stopped trades that were first up 1 R
- 23.6% · on 791,230 stopped trades
- Trades a stop moved to breakeven at +1 R would have closed flat instead of at a loss
- Entry order triggered
- 99.9% · on 1,196,277 occurrences
Medians, each on the cases named on its line; "middle half" spans the 25th to 75th percentile; no value under 30 cases.
How we detect it. Body at most 10% of the average range of the previous 10 candles. Candlestick counts are not checked against planted examples, so they may not be exhaustive.
All measurements (20 rows)
2:1 trade: target hit and average result
| Market | Trades | Target hit | Same trade, random dates | Per trade | 2:1 trade verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto · 1-hour | 2,231,224 | 31.7% | 33.6% | −0.05 R vs +0.01 R | Opposite of the textbook |
| Forex · 1-hour | 305,395 | 31.4% | 31.9% | −0.06 R vs −0.04 R | Weak, below chance |
| All markets · 1-hour | 2,536,619 | 31.6% | 33.4% | −0.05 R vs 0.00 R | Opposite of the textbook |
| Crypto · 4-hour | 601,332 | 32.2% | 32.7% | −0.03 R vs −0.02 R | Weak, below chance |
| Forex · 4-hour | 80,981 | 31.8% | 32.1% | −0.05 R vs −0.04 R | No clear edge |
| All markets · 4-hour | 682,313 | 32.2% | 32.6% | −0.03 R vs −0.02 R | Weak, below chance |
| Crypto · Daily | 98,420 | 34.0% | 32.6% | +0.02 R vs −0.02 R | Promising |
| US stocks · Daily | 1,023,780 | 33.5% | 33.4% | 0.00 R vs 0.00 R | No clear edge |
| ETFs · Daily | 33,349 | 34.3% | 34.5% | +0.01 R vs +0.02 R | No clear edge |
| Indices · Daily | 16,933 | 38.5% | 39.3% | +0.15 R vs +0.18 R | No clear edge |
| Forex · Daily | 12,011 | 33.4% | 33.2% | 0.00 R vs 0.00 R | No clear edge |
| Commodities · Daily | 9,960 | 36.1% | 36.3% | +0.07 R vs +0.08 R | No clear edge |
| All markets · Daily | 1,194,453 | 33.7% | 33.5% | 0.00 R vs 0.00 R | No clear edge |
| Crypto · Weekly | 12,141 | 36.3% | 32.5% | +0.09 R vs −0.02 R | No clear edge |
| US stocks · Weekly | 189,028 | 33.7% | 33.5% | +0.01 R vs 0.00 R | No clear edge |
| ETFs · Weekly | 6,349 | 34.3% | 35.4% | +0.02 R vs +0.06 R | No clear edge |
| Indices · Weekly | 3,255 | 35.7% | 36.3% | +0.07 R vs +0.09 R | No clear edge |
| Forex · Weekly | 2,319 | 33.2% | 32.2% | 0.00 R vs −0.03 R | No clear edge |
| Commodities · Weekly | 1,950 | 35.5% | 34.2% | +0.06 R vs +0.02 R | No clear edge |
| All markets · Weekly | 215,042 | 33.9% | 33.5% | +0.02 R vs +0.01 R | No clear edge |
Data updated November 5, 2026 · code version c2a1683f · Read the methodology. We measure every pattern on crypto and forex (1-hour, 4-hour, daily and weekly charts) and US stocks, ETFs, indices and commodities (daily and weekly charts). A market or timeframe from that list missing from the tables above had no occurrence.
What you often read
“The doji candlestick signals indecision before a big move.”
What our data shows
On 1,194,453 daily closed trades, the 2:1 trade taken on the side of the first breakout hit its target 33.7% of the time, against 33.5% for the same trade on random dates: no clear edge, since the average result per trade is not statistically significant.
Table quoted in the text (verdicts and every market: see All measurements)
| Market and timeframe | Occurrences tested (2:1 trades) | 2:1 target hit | Same setup, random dates | Expectancy | Random dates | Trade verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All markets, daily | 1,196,277 (1,194,453) | 33.7% | 33.5% | 0.00 R | 0.00 R | No clear edge |
| US stocks, daily | 1,024,879 (1,023,780) | 33.5% | 33.4% | 0.00 R | 0.00 R | No clear edge |
| Crypto, daily | 98,999 (98,420) | 34.0% | 32.6% | +0.02 R | −0.02 R | Promising |
| Crypto, 4-hour | 601,676 (601,332) | 32.2% | 32.7% | −0.03 R | −0.02 R | Weak, below chance |
| Crypto, hourly | 2,231,787 (2,231,224) | 31.7% | 33.6% | −0.05 R | +0.01 R | Worse than chance |
| Forex, hourly | 327,386 (305,395) | 31.4% | 31.9% | −0.06 R | −0.04 R | Weak, below chance |
| Forex, daily | 12,051 (12,011) | 33.4% | 33.2% | 0.00 R | 0.00 R | No clear edge |
| Indices, daily | 16,945 (16,933) | 38.5% | 39.3% | +0.15 R | +0.18 R | No clear edge |
| All markets, weekly | 216,344 (215,042) | 33.9% | 33.5% | +0.02 R | +0.01 R | No clear edge |
Read the table in pairs of columns. The setup is the one described above: entry on the first break of the top or bottom, stop at the opposite extreme, target at twice the risk, results in R (multiples of the risk) before fees. "Same setup, random dates" replays the same entry, stop and target distances on random days of the same assets. Only the gap between the two columns measures the value of the pattern.
On crypto day charts, the pattern did better than chance: 34.0% of targets hit against 32.6%, and an average result of +0.02 R against −0.02 R per trade, but that gap clears only a simple test and falls short once we correct for multiple testing. An expectancy of +0.02 R per trade before costs is small enough for fees and slippage to erase. On hourly crypto charts, its average result per trade was slightly worse than on random dates, a gap that survives the correction; on hourly currency charts, it was below chance too, by a margin that passes a simple test but not the correction (weak, below chance). On 4-hour crypto charts, the setup also lagged random dates by a margin that passes only the simple test (weak, below chance). The all-markets daily row is rated No clear edge: it does not pass even the simple test. The other rows of the table read no clear edge.
Does the setting change the result?
We split those occurrences by setting. These breakdowns are descriptive and not corrected for the number of tests.
- After a rise: 33.3% of targets hit, −0.01 R. After a decline: 34.2%, +0.02 R.
- Price above its 200-day moving average: 33.4%, −0.01 R. Under it: 34.1%, +0.02 R.
- Volume above 1.5 times the 20-day average: 34.2%, +0.03 R. Normal volume: 33.6%, 0.00 R.
None of these filters turned the candle into a decisive edge. In raw numbers, the setting shows more when the candle is part of one of the larger candlestick patterns: the bullish doji star (a long black candle, then a doji that gaps beneath it, after a decline) reached its 2:1 target 37.7% of the time against 36.7% on random dates, with an average result of +0.18 R against +0.16 R per trade, rated no clear edge: our test does not separate that gap from chance. Its entry was triggered on only 28.6% of occurrences.
Real examples from our test bench
Here are real dojis, picked by our bench (best and worst results, textbook shapes, most recent, random draws), with their actual outcome. Trade results are in R, the initial risk of the trade.
Real occurrences from our test bench, each on its market's main timeframe. Crypto and US stock examples come from liquid assets only (the largest coins, the most traded stocks). Best and Worst are the best and worst 2:1 trade results, Textbook the cleanest shapes (chosen on geometry alone, never on the outcome), Most recent the latest detections among the assets the gallery draws from, Typical a random draw. Shaded area: the pattern. Dashed lines: entry, stop loss (SL) and 2:1 target (TP) of the tested trade. Dotted line: 10 bars after the signal. A result above +2 R or below −1 R means a bar opened past the target or the stop, and the trade was closed at that open. Stock prices are adjusted for splits and dividends, so they can differ from the prices quoted at the time. We left out 4 cards with a candle that is the thin first bar of the trading week. They still count in the statistics, and are not replaced: our bench picks a fixed number of cards per category.
Breakouts that reached their target
On November 2, 2025, DOT/USDT printed a doji with a top at 3.016 and a bottom at 2.866. The next day price broke the bottom, triggering a sell entry at 2.866, and reached the 2:1 target at 2.566 the same day. On January 23, 2026, AVAX/USDT printed one between 11.99 and 12.5; price broke the bottom the next day and reached the target at 10.97 on January 29, and AVAX was 16.4% lower 10 days after the candle.
Breakouts that failed
On August 7, 2024, DOGE/USDT printed a doji between 0.09428 and 0.10208. The next day the range covered both extremes, from 0.09354 to 0.108: the buy entry at 0.10208 triggered, and the bench counts the touch of the bottom that same day as a 1 R loss. DOGE closed that day at 0.10748, and was 7.5% higher 10 days after the candle: the call was right, the stop was hit first. XLM/USDT formed a doji on October 28, 2024 and broke its high the next day, then fell back through the bottom at 0.0927 on October 31 for a 1 R loss, before ending 8.2% higher 10 days after the candle. Both cases show how a stop at the opposite extreme of the candlestick can be hit by noise.
Combining doji candles with technical indicators
Doji candles say little on their own. Three tools can be paired with them:
- RSI or stochastic: in classical analysis, an overbought or oversold reading is a sign that momentum is fading. We have not tested this filter.
- Moving averages: in classical analysis, a candle that touches a moving average during a steady move can mark the end of a pullback. Our 200-day split above shows only a slight gap.
- Volume: high volume means many shares or contracts changed hands without a winner. In our data, setups on high volume reached the target 34.2% of the time against 33.6% on normal volume, a slight gap.
Limitations of using doji signals in isolation
- It is frequent: about one candle in 7, so most carry no special meaning.
- The definition varies between platforms, so two traders may not see the same candles on the same chart.
- On its own, its setup showed no edge that survives our correction on any market we tested, and did slightly worse than chance on hourly crypto.
Summary: mastering the doji candlestick
- A doji is a candle whose open and close are almost equal: a sign of indecision, not of direction.
- The five types of doji are the standard, long-legged, dragonfly, gravestone and four-price; our bench does not count the four-price bar.
- Across 1,194,453 daily trades, the first-breakout setup reached its 2:1 target 33.7% of the time, against 33.5% for the same setup on random dates.
- Crypto showed a small lead over random dates on one-day bars, with an expectancy of only +0.02 R per trade before costs, rated Promising, too weak to survive our correction; hourly crypto did slightly worse than chance.
- In raw numbers, the same shape inside a doji star after a decline did better than the lone candlestick, without passing our test against random dates.
Frequently asked questions about the doji candlestick
What does a doji candle indicate?
It indicates that both sides ended the bar where they started. Classical candlestick analysis reads it as a potential turning sign only in context, after a sustained trend and near a support or resistance level; in our splits, the prior trend barely changed the result.
Can you trade a doji pattern by itself?
You can, by trading the first breakout of its top or bottom, but our data shows that this setup does about as well as the same setup on random dates on most markets; the one row that passes a simple test in its favor, daily crypto, gains only a few hundredths of R over random dates (+0.02 R against −0.02 R) and does not survive our correction; weekly crypto shows a wider gap (+0.09 R against −0.02 R) that does not pass even a simple test. Trend and levels are the classical additions; our splits by trend barely changed the result, and we have not tested levels. Risk management is not optional.
Which doji type is the most significant?
In classical candlestick analysis, the dragonfly and gravestone doji tell the clearest story among the types of doji, because their one tall shadow shows one side being pushed back. On daily charts, all markets together, the dragonfly doji setup reached its target 35.5% of the time against 35.0% on random dates, and its average result per trade (+0.06 R against +0.04 R) is not statistically significant; the gravestone doji showed no clear edge on daily charts, and lagged random dates on hourly forex by a margin that passes a simple test but not our correction. On hourly crypto, both did worse than random dates after our correction: −0.10 R against +0.01 R for the gravestone, −0.11 R against −0.01 R for the dragonfly.
Does a red doji mean the market will fall?
No. Its color is irrelevant on such a thin bar. A red one and a green one carry the same information.
What happens after a doji?
Price breaks one side in almost every case: the stop order was triggered on 99.9% of occurrences in our tests. The median setup that reached its target took 3 days.
About the author and the data. Written by Amaury, founder of PatternsWizard, who is passionate about finance, quantitative trading and data analysis. He built the PatternsWizard test bench, which applies the same published rules to full market history: crypto, forex, US stocks, ETFs, indices and commodities. Trades and win rates are compared with random bars on the same assets, excess returns with the rest of the market, with error margins and a correction for multiple testing, and the whole pipeline is checked on random-walk prices, where nothing can be predicted. Statistics on this page were generated on November 5, 2026. The full methodology explains every step.
