Bullish vs Bearish Market: Every S&P 500 Phase Since 1970

A bull market is a long rise in prices and a bear market a long fall. The SEC's investor glossary puts numbers on both: a rise or a fall of 20% or more in a broad market index over at least a two-month period. Bullish and bearish describe the expectation behind them: a bullish trader expects prices to rise and buys, a bearish trader expects them to fall and sells or stays out. On the S&P 500 since 1970, bull markets have lasted much longer than bear markets and gained far more than bears took away.

The four phases of a market cycle

Schematic, not market data.Bull and bear markets follow each other in a cycle: a rise, a top, a fall and a bottom.

Bull market vs bear market: definitions

	Bull market	Bear market
Investor.gov definition	"a rise of 20% or more in a broad market index over at least a two-month period"	"Generally, a bear market occurs when a broad market index falls by 20% or more over at least a two-month period."
Expectation	Bullish: prices will rise	Bearish: prices will fall
Trades that fit the view	Buy, hold, buy the dips	Sell, short, hedge, or hold cash
Median move, S&P 500 since 1970 (our computation)	+114.4%	−33.5%
Median length, same data	60.4 months	9.3 months

Sources: Investor.gov, bull market and Investor.gov, bear market. Bullish and bearish also apply to a single stock, a currency pair or a chart pattern: a bullish engulfing candle, for example, is one that points up.

Every bull and bear market in the S&P 500 since 1970

We marked every swing of 20% or more on daily closes of the S&P 500 (price index, no dividends), from January 2, 1970 to October 28, 2026. A new phase starts when the index has moved 20% from the last extreme; the phase is then dated from that extreme. Months are calendar days divided by 30.44. This method does not apply the two-month condition, so the notes flag the moves that were shorter.

Phase	From	To	Change	Months	Notes
Bear (already under way)	January 5, 1970	May 26, 1970	−25.9%	Not known (started before our data)	Measured from the first high in our data
Bull	May 26, 1970	January 11, 1973	+73.5%	31.6
Bear	January 11, 1973	October 3, 1974	−48.2%	20.7
Bull	October 3, 1974	November 28, 1980	+125.6%	73.9
Bear	November 28, 1980	August 12, 1982	−27.1%	20.4
Bull	August 12, 1982	August 25, 1987	+228.8%	60.4
Bear	August 25, 1987	December 4, 1987	−33.5%	3.3	Includes the crash of October 1987
Bull	December 4, 1987	March 24, 2000	+582.1%	147.6
Bear	March 24, 2000	September 21, 2001	−36.8%	17.9
Bull	September 21, 2001	January 4, 2002	+21.4%	3.4	A rebound inside the 2000 to 2002 decline
Bear	January 4, 2002	July 23, 2002	−32.0%	6.6	Peak to final low, March 2000 to October 2002: −49.1%
Bull	July 23, 2002	October 9, 2007	+96.2%	62.5
Bear	October 9, 2007	November 20, 2008	−51.9%	13.4
Bull	November 20, 2008	January 6, 2009	+24.2%	1.5	Lasted 47 days: under two months
Bear	January 6, 2009	March 9, 2009	−27.6%	2.0	Peak to final low, October 2007 to March 2009: −56.8%
Bull	March 9, 2009	February 19, 2020	+400.5%	131.4
Bear	February 19, 2020	March 23, 2020	−33.9%	1.1	Lasted 33 days: under two months
Bull	March 23, 2020	January 3, 2022	+114.4%	21.4
Bear	January 3, 2022	October 12, 2022	−25.4%	9.3
Bull (in progress)	October 12, 2022	Record close October 6, 2026	+118.6% to the record	47.8 to the record	Still open at the end of our data, October 28, 2026

Over the nine complete bear markets, the median fall was 33.5% and the median length 9.3 months; over the nine complete bull markets, the median rise was 114.4% and the median length 60.4 months. Two moves in the table were shorter than the SEC's two months: the rebound from November 2008 and the 2020 bear market. The rebound from September 2001 and the 2002 decline are parts of the larger 2000 to 2002 fall, and the 2008 rebound and the early 2009 decline parts of the 2007 to 2009 fall, which shows that the labels depend on the rule you choose. The two charts below put the complete phases side by side.

The nine complete S&P 500 bear markets since 1970

Our computation; the inputs and the method are in the text.Fall from the closing high to the closing low of each complete bear market, S&P 500 price index, daily closes, January 1970 to October 2026, with the 20% swing rule described in the text.

The nine complete S&P 500 bull markets since 1970

Our computation; the inputs and the method are in the text.Rise from the closing low to the closing high of each complete bull market, same data and rule. The bull market that began on October 12, 2022 is still open and left out.

Where the words bull and bear come from

The bear is the better documented of the two. In a 2014 Marketplace report, Ben Zimmer traces it to the proverb about selling the bear skin before you have caught the bear: a trader who sold shares he did not yet own, betting on a fall, was called a bear skin jobber, then a bear. As Zimmer puts it, the bull "is more mysterious" (Marketplace, Bears, bulls and BS).

How to adapt your trading to the market phase

The suggestions below are ways to adjust risk to the phase, not tested rules; we have not measured them on our bench.

	In a bull market	In a bear market
Direction	Favor long trades and buying pullbacks	Favor short trades, hedges or smaller long positions
Rallies and dips	Dips are entry points if the trend holds; see pullback trading	A rally can be a trap; see the bull trap guide
Position size	Normal risk per trade	Smaller risk per trade: bear markets in the table were deep and fast, and three lasted under four months
Stops	Below the last higher low	Above the last lower high

Bear markets in the table were short but deep: three of them lasted under four months. The market cycles guide describes how phases follow each other, and dovish vs hawkish central banks explains how interest rate news can tip a market from one phase to the other.

Bullish and bearish chart patterns

Candlestick and chart patterns are classed as bullish or bearish by the direction they point to. Whether that direction actually followed is something we measure on our bench, across markets and timeframes:

Data from our test bench

Bullish and bearish patterns on our bench

Each pattern is measured on full price history. Cards show daily bars, all markets pooled. “At random” is the same measure on random bars of the same assets, or the same trade on random dates. The verdict does not follow the gap between the two percentages: it tests the excess return over the rest of the market, or the average trade result against the same trade on random dates, so similar gaps can get different verdicts. A card shows the direction or variant it names; the others are on the pattern's page. How we test

More market concepts are in trading concepts.

Frequently asked questions

Is bullish up or down?

Up. Bullish means expecting prices to rise, bearish means expecting them to fall.

Does bearish mean sell?

It means expecting a fall. A bearish trader may sell, short, buy protection or simply wait in cash; the view does not force one action.

Is it better to buy bullish or bearish?

Buying matches a bullish view. On the S&P 500 since 1970, bull markets lasted a median of 60.4 months against 9.3 months for bear markets, so long positions in the index spent more time on the right side. Past phases do not tell you how long the current one will last.

What is the official definition of a bear market?

The SEC's Investor.gov glossary says a bear market generally occurs when a broad market index falls by 20% or more over at least a two-month period.

How long do bear markets last?

On S&P 500 daily closes from 1970 to 2026, the nine complete bear markets lasted a median of 9.3 months, from about one month in 2020 to 20.7 months in 1973 and 1974.