{
 "id": "butterfly_bearish",
 "name": "Bearish butterfly",
 "family": "chart",
 "direction": "bearish",
 "page": "https://patternswizard.com/butterfly-harmonic-pattern/",
 "data": "https://patternswizard.com/data/patterns/butterfly_bearish.json",
 "rule": "Five swing points X (high), A, B, C, D. B retraces 0.747 to 0.825 of XA (0.786 within 5%), C retraces 0.382 to 0.886 of AB. When C is confirmed, the reversal zone is where a 1.207 to 1.334 extension of XA (1.27 within 5%, beyond X) overlaps a 1.618 to 2.24 projection of BC. Signal at the close of the first bar that trades into the zone without trading beyond the 1.618 extension of XA. Stop at the 1.618 extension of XA. The swing points before the reversal zone span at least 3 ATR, with at least 3 bars between consecutive points. The first swing point is a true extreme: over the duration of the first leg before it, price never went more than 10% of that leg beyond it.",
 "entry_rule": "Close of the first bar that reaches the near edge of the reversal zone",
 "stop_rule": "At the 1.618 extension of XA",
 "trade_rule": "Entry at the close of the signal bar. Exit at the stop or the target, or at the open when a bar opens beyond either one; otherwise at the close after 100 bars. When one bar touches both the stop and the target, the loss is counted. No fees or slippage. A result above +2 R or below −1 R means a bar opened past the target or the stop, and the trade was closed at that open.",
 "generated_at": "2026-11-05T17:19:18+00:00",
 "code_version": "c2a1683f",
 "results": [
  {
   "market": "crypto",
   "tf": "1h",
   "side": "all",
   "n": 3846,
   "symbols": 543,
   "first": "2017-10-07",
   "last": "2026-10-28",
   "win10": 0.56150845,
   "baseWin10": 0.50587998,
   "excess10": {
    "mean": 0.00153922,
    "low": 0.00013992,
    "high": 0.00292607,
    "q": 0.27303158,
    "stable": true
   },
   "trade": {
    "n": 3845,
    "winRate": 0.26189857,
    "expectancyR": 0.00658121,
    "baseWinRate": 0.26430429,
    "baseExpectancyR": -0.02765169,
    "timeoutRate": 0.14330299,
    "triggeredRate": null,
    "invalidatedRate": null,
    "hits": 1007,
    "stops": 2287,
    "triggered": null
   },
   "timing": {
    "bars_to_target": [
     10,
     22,
     43.5
    ],
    "bars_to_stop": [
     3,
     9,
     25
    ],
    "bars_in_trade": [
     5,
     18,
     53
    ],
    "mfe_r": [
     0.31110993,
     0.9090122,
     2.01334
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    "stopped_after_1r": 0.19763883,
    "duration": [
     34,
     57,
     109
    ],
    "height_pct": [
     0.05936843,
     0.08840279,
     0.13435758
    ],
    "breakout_delay": [
     3,
     8,
     18
    ],
    "bars_to_pattern_target": [
     6,
     15,
     32.75
    ]
   },
   "breakoutStats": {
    "falseStartRate": 0.5238841,
    "baseFalseStartRate": 0.53321633,
    "throwbackRate": 0.66718709,
    "targetHitRate": 0.36890164
   },
   "confirmRate": 0.22332601,
   "oneEveryBars": 3817,
   "verdict": "weak_evidence",
   "verdictTrade": "no_edge"
  },
  {
   "market": "forex",
   "tf": "1h",
   "side": "all",
   "n": 594,
   "symbols": 25,
   "first": "2012-02-03",
   "last": "2026-10-20",
   "win10": 0.51096121,
   "baseWin10": 0.4921696,
   "excess10": {
    "mean": 0.0000171,
    "low": -0.00022346,
    "high": 0.00026676,
    "q": 0.96463522,
    "stable": true
   },
   "trade": {
    "n": 590,
    "winRate": 0.27457627,
    "expectancyR": 0.01702954,
    "baseWinRate": 0.26016949,
    "baseExpectancyR": -0.03821362,
    "timeoutRate": 0.14576271,
    "triggeredRate": null,
    "invalidatedRate": null,
    "hits": 162,
    "stops": 342,
    "triggered": null
   },
   "timing": {
    "bars_to_target": [
     10,
     24,
     44.5
    ],
    "bars_to_stop": [
     3,
     13.5,
     27
    ],
    "bars_in_trade": [
     6,
     22,
     55.5
    ],
    "mfe_r": [
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     2.01916707
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    "stopped_after_1r": 0.1871345,
    "duration": [
     32,
     51,
     109.75
    ],
    "height_pct": [
     0.00571981,
     0.0086299,
     0.01338803
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    "breakout_delay": [
     4,
     9,
     23
    ],
    "bars_to_pattern_target": [
     10,
     21.5,
     39.25
    ]
   },
   "breakoutStats": {
    "falseStartRate": 0.55042735,
    "baseFalseStartRate": 0.57070707,
    "throwbackRate": 0.64505119,
    "targetHitRate": 0.31810491
   },
   "confirmRate": 0.22758941,
   "oneEveryBars": 3653,
   "verdict": "no_edge",
   "verdictTrade": "no_edge"
  },
  {
   "market": "all",
   "tf": "1h",
   "side": "all",
   "n": 4440,
   "symbols": 568,
   "first": "2012-02-03",
   "last": "2026-10-28",
   "win10": 0.55475439,
   "baseWin10": 0.50404802,
   "excess10": {
    "mean": 0.00133584,
    "low": 0.0000399,
    "high": 0.0026404,
    "q": 0.27303158,
    "stable": true
   },
   "trade": {
    "n": 4435,
    "winRate": 0.26358512,
    "expectancyR": 0.00797118,
    "baseWinRate": 0.26375423,
    "baseExpectancyR": -0.02905677,
    "timeoutRate": 0.14363021,
    "triggeredRate": null,
    "invalidatedRate": null,
    "hits": 1169,
    "stops": 2629,
    "triggered": null
   },
   "timing": {
    "bars_to_target": [
     10,
     22,
     44
    ],
    "bars_to_stop": [
     3,
     10,
     26
    ],
    "bars_in_trade": [
     5,
     18,
     53
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    "mfe_r": [
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    "stopped_after_1r": 0.19627235,
    "duration": [
     34,
     56,
     109
    ],
    "height_pct": [
     0.04594732,
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     0.12484303
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    "breakout_delay": [
     3,
     8,
     19
    ],
    "bars_to_pattern_target": [
     6,
     16,
     34
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   },
   "breakoutStats": {
    "falseStartRate": 0.52740036,
    "baseFalseStartRate": 0.53823198,
    "throwbackRate": 0.6642583,
    "targetHitRate": 0.36211573
   },
   "confirmRate": 0.22372353,
   "oneEveryBars": 3795,
   "verdict": "weak_evidence",
   "verdictTrade": "no_edge"
  },
  {
   "market": "crypto",
   "tf": "4h",
   "side": "all",
   "n": 936,
   "symbols": 368,
   "first": "2017-10-31",
   "last": "2026-10-09",
   "win10": 0.58333333,
   "baseWin10": 0.51699602,
   "excess10": {
    "mean": 0.00980769,
    "low": 0.00538597,
    "high": 0.01375236,
    "q": 0.0046082,
    "stable": true
   },
   "trade": {
    "n": 936,
    "winRate": 0.26816239,
    "expectancyR": 0.01161499,
    "baseWinRate": 0.25320513,
    "baseExpectancyR": -0.06756428,
    "timeoutRate": 0.11858974,
    "triggeredRate": null,
    "invalidatedRate": null,
    "hits": 251,
    "stops": 574,
    "triggered": null
   },
   "timing": {
    "bars_to_target": [
     9,
     21,
     44.5
    ],
    "bars_to_stop": [
     2,
     9,
     26
    ],
    "bars_in_trade": [
     4,
     16,
     45
    ],
    "mfe_r": [
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    "stopped_after_1r": 0.19337979,
    "duration": [
     32,
     51,
     107.25
    ],
    "height_pct": [
     0.11639275,
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     0.25731204
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    "breakout_delay": [
     2,
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     15
    ],
    "bars_to_pattern_target": [
     6,
     13,
     31
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   },
   "breakoutStats": {
    "falseStartRate": 0.51783784,
    "baseFalseStartRate": 0.53197571,
    "throwbackRate": 0.6391863,
    "targetHitRate": 0.42060086
   },
   "confirmRate": 0.23638516,
   "oneEveryBars": 3922,
   "verdict": "edge_confirmed",
   "verdictTrade": "no_edge"
  },
  {
   "market": "forex",
   "tf": "4h",
   "side": "all",
   "n": 143,
   "symbols": 25,
   "first": "2012-02-24",
   "last": "2026-03-30",
   "win10": 0.48951049,
   "baseWin10": 0.49370614,
   "excess10": {
    "mean": 0.00045771,
    "low": -0.00064558,
    "high": 0.00150465,
    "q": 0.75223786,
    "stable": false
   },
   "trade": {
    "n": 142,
    "winRate": 0.23239437,
    "expectancyR": -0.08481716,
    "baseWinRate": 0.26701878,
    "baseExpectancyR": -0.02105927,
    "timeoutRate": 0.15492958,
    "triggeredRate": null,
    "invalidatedRate": null,
    "hits": 33,
    "stops": 87,
    "triggered": null
   },
   "timing": {
    "bars_to_target": [
     8,
     24,
     45
    ],
    "bars_to_stop": [
     5,
     12,
     29
    ],
    "bars_in_trade": [
     6,
     19,
     49.25
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    "mfe_r": [
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    "stopped_after_1r": 0.14942529,
    "duration": [
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     48,
     107
    ],
    "height_pct": [
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    "breakout_delay": [
     4,
     10,
     23
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    "bars_to_pattern_target": [
     10,
     20.5,
     36
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   },
   "breakoutStats": {
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    "baseFalseStartRate": 0.53521127,
    "throwbackRate": 0.68345324,
    "targetHitRate": 0.26760563
   },
   "confirmRate": 0.25865209,
   "oneEveryBars": 3699,
   "verdict": "no_edge",
   "verdictTrade": "no_edge"
  },
  {
   "market": "all",
   "tf": "4h",
   "side": "all",
   "n": 1079,
   "symbols": 393,
   "first": "2012-02-24",
   "last": "2026-10-09",
   "win10": 0.57089898,
   "baseWin10": 0.51390941,
   "excess10": {
    "mean": 0.00856854,
    "low": 0.00487546,
    "high": 0.01207703,
    "q": 0.00342535,
    "stable": true
   },
   "trade": {
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    "winRate": 0.26345083,
    "expectancyR": -0.00108758,
    "baseWinRate": 0.25502474,
    "baseExpectancyR": -0.06143838,
    "timeoutRate": 0.12337662,
    "triggeredRate": null,
    "invalidatedRate": null,
    "hits": 284,
    "stops": 661,
    "triggered": null
   },
   "timing": {
    "bars_to_target": [
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     21.5,
     45
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    "bars_to_stop": [
     3,
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     26
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    "bars_in_trade": [
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     45
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    "mfe_r": [
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    "stopped_after_1r": 0.18759455,
    "duration": [
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     50,
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    "height_pct": [
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    "breakout_delay": [
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    "bars_to_pattern_target": [
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   },
   "breakoutStats": {
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   "confirmRate": 0.23856151,
   "oneEveryBars": 3893,
   "verdict": "edge_confirmed",
   "verdictTrade": "no_edge"
  },
  {
   "market": "crypto",
   "tf": "1d",
   "side": "all",
   "n": 129,
   "symbols": 105,
   "first": "2017-11-24",
   "last": "2026-09-21",
   "win10": 0.56589147,
   "baseWin10": 0.5467195,
   "excess10": {
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   },
   "trade": {
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    "winRate": 0.256,
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    "timeoutRate": 0.064,
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    "hits": 32,
    "stops": 85,
    "triggered": null
   },
   "timing": {
    "bars_to_target": [
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     39
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    "bars_to_stop": [
     3,
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     17
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    "bars_in_trade": [
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     36
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    "mfe_r": [
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    "stopped_after_1r": 0.15294118,
    "duration": [
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     50,
     84
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    "height_pct": [
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    "breakout_delay": [
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    "bars_to_pattern_target": [
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   },
   "breakoutStats": {
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   "confirmRate": 0.19804742,
   "oneEveryBars": 4667,
   "verdict": "no_edge",
   "verdictTrade": "no_edge"
  },
  {
   "market": "stocks",
   "tf": "1d",
   "side": "all",
   "n": 2480,
   "symbols": 1102,
   "first": "1970-12-02",
   "last": "2026-10-23",
   "win10": 0.45883777,
   "baseWin10": 0.45347134,
   "excess10": {
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    "q": 0.93463853,
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   },
   "trade": {
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    "winRate": 0.23935091,
    "expectancyR": -0.16740678,
    "baseWinRate": 0.23275862,
    "baseExpectancyR": -0.19359329,
    "timeoutRate": 0.10141988,
    "triggeredRate": null,
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    "hits": 590,
    "stops": 1625,
    "triggered": null
   },
   "timing": {
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    "bars_to_stop": [
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     32
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    "bars_in_trade": [
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    "mfe_r": [
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    "stopped_after_1r": 0.19938462,
    "duration": [
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     114
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    "height_pct": [
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    "bars_to_pattern_target": [
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   },
   "breakoutStats": {
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   },
   "confirmRate": 0.3050967,
   "oneEveryBars": 2951,
   "verdict": "no_edge",
   "verdictTrade": "no_edge"
  },
  {
   "market": "etf",
   "tf": "1d",
   "side": "all",
   "n": 100,
   "symbols": 42,
   "first": "1994-01-10",
   "last": "2026-09-10",
   "win10": 0.49,
   "baseWin10": 0.43399248,
   "excess10": {
    "mean": 0.00781816,
    "low": 0.00039377,
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    "q": 0.30615535,
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   },
   "trade": {
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    "winRate": 0.28282828,
    "expectancyR": -0.08904802,
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    "baseExpectancyR": -0.14914367,
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    "hits": 28,
    "stops": 64,
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   },
   "timing": {
    "bars_to_target": [
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    "bars_to_stop": [
     5,
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     30
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    "bars_in_trade": [
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    "mfe_r": [
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    "stopped_after_1r": 0.1875,
    "duration": [
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    "height_pct": [
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    "breakout_delay": [
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    "bars_to_pattern_target": [
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   },
   "breakoutStats": {
    "falseStartRate": 0.64285714,
    "baseFalseStartRate": 0.62710438,
    "throwbackRate": 0.66666667,
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   "confirmRate": 0.32720588,
   "oneEveryBars": 2535,
   "verdict": "no_edge",
   "verdictTrade": "no_edge"
  },
  {
   "market": "indices",
   "tf": "1d",
   "side": "all",
   "n": 48,
   "symbols": 15,
   "first": "1985-01-21",
   "last": "2025-10-23",
   "win10": 0.33333333,
   "baseWin10": 0.4253005,
   "excess10": {
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   },
   "trade": {
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    "hits": 13,
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   },
   "timing": {
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    "bars_to_stop": [
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    "bars_in_trade": [
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     19,
     52
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    "mfe_r": [
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    "stopped_after_1r": 0.10714286,
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     80.25
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    "height_pct": [
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    "breakout_delay": [
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     22
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    "bars_to_pattern_target": [
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     43,
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   },
   "breakoutStats": {
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   },
   "confirmRate": 0.31782946,
   "oneEveryBars": 2880,
   "verdict": "no_edge",
   "verdictTrade": "no_edge"
  },
  {
   "market": "forex",
   "tf": "1d",
   "side": "all",
   "n": 20,
   "symbols": 15,
   "first": "2012-05-15",
   "last": "2026-01-27",
   "win10": 0.5,
   "baseWin10": 0.49093739,
   "excess10": {
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   },
   "trade": {
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   },
   "timing": {
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    "bars_to_stop": [
     3,
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    "bars_in_trade": [
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    "mfe_r": [
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 ],
 "attribution": "PatternsWizard (https://patternswizard.com/), pattern statistics",
 "license": {
  "name": "© PatternsWizard, all rights reserved",
  "url": "https://patternswizard.com/open-data/#license"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Historical statistics before fees and slippage. Not investment advice: past results do not predict future ones."
}