{
 "id": "bear_flag",
 "name": "Bear flag",
 "family": "chart",
 "direction": "bearish",
 "page": "https://patternswizard.com/flag-pattern/",
 "data": "https://patternswizard.com/data/patterns/bear_flag.json",
 "rule": "A pole (one falling swing, at least 3 ATR, at least 0.4 ATR per bar), then two troughs and peaks forming a flat or rising parallel channel (slopes within 20%) that retraces at most 50% of the pole, lasts at most 1.5 times the pole and keeps every close within 10% of its height from its lines. At least 3 bars between swing points, breakout within half the flag duration. The standard grade widens this: pole up to 60 bars at 0.3 ATR per bar or more, a pullback of up to 60% of the pole lasting up to 2 times the pole, a breakout within 0.75 of the duration. The pole starts from a true high: over the pole's duration before it, price never rose more than 10% of the pole above its start.",
 "entry_rule": "Close outside the lines, in the direction of the breakout",
 "stop_rule": "On the opposite line, at its level on the breakout bar",
 "trade_rule": "Entry at the close of the signal bar. Exit at the stop or the target, or at the open when a bar opens beyond either one; otherwise at the close after 100 bars. When one bar touches both the stop and the target, the loss is counted. No fees or slippage. A result above +2 R or below −1 R means a bar opened past the target or the stop, and the trade was closed at that open.",
 "generated_at": "2026-11-05T17:19:18+00:00",
 "code_version": "c2a1683f",
 "results": [
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   "market": "crypto",
   "tf": "1h",
   "side": "up",
   "n": 478,
   "symbols": 308,
   "first": "2018-02-12",
   "last": "2026-10-23",
   "win10": 0.42259414,
   "baseWin10": 0.48075015,
   "excess10": {
    "mean": -0.00267363,
    "low": -0.00553477,
    "high": 0.00024088,
    "q": 0.35840754,
    "stable": true
   },
   "trade": {
    "n": 478,
    "winRate": 0.26987448,
    "expectancyR": -0.0264264,
    "baseWinRate": 0.28172943,
    "baseExpectancyR": 0.03647948,
    "timeoutRate": 0.16945607,
    "triggeredRate": null,
    "invalidatedRate": null,
    "hits": 129,
    "stops": 268,
    "triggered": null
   },
   "timing": {
    "bars_to_target": [
     11,
     24,
     42
    ],
    "bars_to_stop": [
     11,
     20,
     37
    ],
    "bars_in_trade": [
     14,
     26,
     64
    ],
    "mfe_r": [
     0.30007508,
     0.88310456,
     2.02400964
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    "stopped_after_1r": 0.18656716,
    "duration": [
     34,
     44,
     57
    ],
    "height_pct": [
     0.08153643,
     0.11830316,
     0.17898956
    ],
    "breakout_delay": [
     3,
     5,
     8
    ],
    "bars_to_pattern_target": [
     10.25,
     22,
     46.75
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   },
   "breakoutStats": {
    "falseStartRate": 0.49790795,
    "baseFalseStartRate": 0.4888424,
    "throwbackRate": 0.63389121,
    "targetHitRate": 0.23255814
   },
   "confirmRate": 0.76036674,
   "oneEveryBars": 30714,
   "verdict": "no_edge",
   "verdictTrade": "no_edge"
  },
  {
   "market": "crypto",
   "tf": "1h",
   "side": "down",
   "n": 1564,
   "symbols": 483,
   "first": "2018-04-30",
   "last": "2026-10-26",
   "win10": 0.49744246,
   "baseWin10": 0.50827051,
   "excess10": {
    "mean": 0.00087783,
    "low": -0.00016328,
    "high": 0.00185845,
    "q": 0.38868858,
    "stable": false
   },
   "trade": {
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    "winRate": 0.26295585,
    "expectancyR": 0.06334033,
    "baseWinRate": 0.24024312,
    "baseExpectancyR": -0.01515798,
    "timeoutRate": 0.18554063,
    "triggeredRate": null,
    "invalidatedRate": null,
    "hits": 411,
    "stops": 862,
    "triggered": null
   },
   "timing": {
    "bars_to_target": [
     16.5,
     31,
     50.5
    ],
    "bars_to_stop": [
     10,
     22.5,
     46
    ],
    "bars_in_trade": [
     15,
     35,
     76
    ],
    "mfe_r": [
     0.3643411,
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     2.01408458
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    "stopped_after_1r": 0.19837587,
    "duration": [
     35,
     45,
     58
    ],
    "height_pct": [
     0.08807419,
     0.13885663,
     0.2135972
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    "breakout_delay": [
     1,
     3,
     6
    ],
    "bars_to_pattern_target": [
     14.5,
     28,
     52.5
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   },
   "breakoutStats": {
    "falseStartRate": 0.49935897,
    "baseFalseStartRate": 0.52051364,
    "throwbackRate": 0.64363404,
    "targetHitRate": 0.1944801
   },
   "confirmRate": 0.76036674,
   "oneEveryBars": 9387,
   "verdict": "no_edge",
   "verdictTrade": "no_edge"
  },
  {
   "market": "forex",
   "tf": "1h",
   "side": "up",
   "n": 66,
   "symbols": 23,
   "first": "2013-02-22",
   "last": "2026-04-23",
   "win10": 0.45454545,
   "baseWin10": 0.50318376,
   "excess10": {
    "mean": -0.00080159,
    "low": -0.00175296,
    "high": 0.00002165,
    "q": 0.37912222,
    "stable": true
   },
   "trade": {
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    "winRate": 0.21212121,
    "expectancyR": -0.17827557,
    "baseWinRate": 0.26515152,
    "baseExpectancyR": 0.01597941,
    "timeoutRate": 0.09090909,
    "triggeredRate": null,
    "invalidatedRate": null,
    "hits": 14,
    "stops": 46,
    "triggered": null
   },
   "timing": {
    "bars_to_target": [
     23.5,
     56.5,
     77.5
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    "bars_to_stop": [
     7,
     21,
     40
    ],
    "bars_in_trade": [
     11.5,
     28.5,
     65.5
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    "mfe_r": [
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    "stopped_after_1r": 0.15217391,
    "duration": [
     34.75,
     45.5,
     61
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    "height_pct": [
     0.00733909,
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     0.0169008
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    "breakout_delay": [
     3,
     6,
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    "bars_to_pattern_target": [
     16,
     50,
     75
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   },
   "breakoutStats": {
    "falseStartRate": 0.59090909,
    "baseFalseStartRate": 0.50757576,
    "throwbackRate": 0.71212121,
    "targetHitRate": 0.1969697
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   "confirmRate": 0.81818182,
   "oneEveryBars": 32874,
   "verdict": "no_edge",
   "verdictTrade": "no_edge"
  },
  {
   "market": "forex",
   "tf": "1h",
   "side": "down",
   "n": 172,
   "symbols": 25,
   "first": "2012-02-17",
   "last": "2026-10-23",
   "win10": 0.46511628,
   "baseWin10": 0.49386336,
   "excess10": {
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    "low": -0.00094342,
    "high": 0.00017675,
    "q": 0.50718873,
    "stable": true
   },
   "trade": {
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    "winRate": 0.23391813,
    "expectancyR": -0.16699051,
    "baseWinRate": 0.24658869,
    "baseExpectancyR": -0.05981249,
    "timeoutRate": 0.0994152,
    "triggeredRate": null,
    "invalidatedRate": null,
    "hits": 40,
    "stops": 114,
    "triggered": null
   },
   "timing": {
    "bars_to_target": [
     19.5,
     26,
     55.75
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    "bars_to_stop": [
     9.25,
     20,
     38.75
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    "bars_in_trade": [
     11.5,
     25,
     57
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    "mfe_r": [
     0.25345466,
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    "stopped_after_1r": 0.15789474,
    "duration": [
     28,
     43,
     55.25
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    "height_pct": [
     0.00858346,
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     0.01773525
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    "breakout_delay": [
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     2,
     5
    ],
    "bars_to_pattern_target": [
     15,
     34,
     47
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   },
   "breakoutStats": {
    "falseStartRate": 0.57894737,
    "baseFalseStartRate": 0.53488372,
    "throwbackRate": 0.62573099,
    "targetHitRate": 0.18235294
   },
   "confirmRate": 0.81818182,
   "oneEveryBars": 12614,
   "verdict": "no_edge",
   "verdictTrade": "no_edge"
  },
  {
   "market": "all",
   "tf": "1h",
   "side": "up",
   "n": 544,
   "symbols": 331,
   "first": "2013-02-22",
   "last": "2026-10-23",
   "win10": 0.42647059,
   "baseWin10": 0.48347188,
   "excess10": {
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    "q": 0.31016277,
    "stable": true
   },
   "trade": {
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    "winRate": 0.26286765,
    "expectancyR": -0.04484928,
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    "baseExpectancyR": 0.03399234,
    "timeoutRate": 0.15992647,
    "triggeredRate": null,
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    "hits": 143,
    "stops": 314,
    "triggered": null
   },
   "timing": {
    "bars_to_target": [
     11.5,
     25,
     47
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    "bars_to_stop": [
     11,
     20,
     38
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    "bars_in_trade": [
     13,
     26,
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    "mfe_r": [
     0.30000001,
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    "stopped_after_1r": 0.18152866,
    "duration": [
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     44,
     57
    ],
    "height_pct": [
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    "breakout_delay": [
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     8
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    "bars_to_pattern_target": [
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     23,
     50
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   },
   "breakoutStats": {
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    "baseFalseStartRate": 0.4911152,
    "throwbackRate": 0.64338235,
    "targetHitRate": 0.22820037
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   "confirmRate": 0.76488667,
   "oneEveryBars": 30976,
   "verdict": "no_edge",
   "verdictTrade": "no_edge"
  },
  {
   "market": "all",
   "tf": "1h",
   "side": "down",
   "n": 1736,
   "symbols": 508,
   "first": "2012-02-17",
   "last": "2026-10-26",
   "win10": 0.49423963,
   "baseWin10": 0.50684308,
   "excess10": {
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    "low": -0.00021364,
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    "q": 0.4375996,
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   },
   "trade": {
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    "winRate": 0.26009227,
    "expectancyR": 0.04062605,
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    "baseExpectancyR": -0.01956163,
    "timeoutRate": 0.17704729,
    "triggeredRate": null,
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    "hits": 451,
    "stops": 976,
    "triggered": null
   },
   "timing": {
    "bars_to_target": [
     17,
     31,
     50.5
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    "bars_to_stop": [
     10,
     22,
     45
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    "bars_in_trade": [
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     34,
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    "mfe_r": [
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    "stopped_after_1r": 0.19364754,
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     34,
     45,
     57
    ],
    "height_pct": [
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    "breakout_delay": [
     1,
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    "bars_to_pattern_target": [
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   },
   "breakoutStats": {
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   "confirmRate": 0.76488667,
   "oneEveryBars": 9707,
   "verdict": "no_edge",
   "verdictTrade": "no_edge"
  },
  {
   "market": "crypto",
   "tf": "4h",
   "side": "up",
   "n": 151,
   "symbols": 127,
   "first": "2019-10-04",
   "last": "2026-10-21",
   "win10": 0.37748344,
   "baseWin10": 0.47594093,
   "excess10": {
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    "q": 0.39621319,
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   },
   "trade": {
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    "baseExpectancyR": -0.04714993,
    "timeoutRate": 0.11258278,
    "triggeredRate": null,
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    "hits": 29,
    "stops": 105,
    "triggered": null
   },
   "timing": {
    "bars_to_target": [
     7,
     26,
     57
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    "bars_to_stop": [
     8,
     15,
     33
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    "bars_in_trade": [
     9,
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    "mfe_r": [
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    "stopped_after_1r": 0.16190476,
    "duration": [
     30,
     41,
     55.5
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    "height_pct": [
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    "breakout_delay": [
     3,
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     8
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    "bars_to_pattern_target": [
     11,
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     57
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   },
   "breakoutStats": {
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   "confirmRate": 0.75729927,
   "oneEveryBars": 24313,
   "verdict": "no_edge",
   "verdictTrade": "weak_evidence"
  },
  {
   "market": "crypto",
   "tf": "4h",
   "side": "down",
   "n": 529,
   "symbols": 316,
   "first": "2018-09-17",
   "last": "2026-10-07",
   "win10": 0.58223062,
   "baseWin10": 0.52429275,
   "excess10": {
    "mean": 0.00390682,
    "low": 0.00016052,
    "high": 0.00787523,
    "q": 0.30788854,
    "stable": true
   },
   "trade": {
    "n": 527,
    "winRate": 0.31878558,
    "expectancyR": 0.25516607,
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    "baseExpectancyR": 0.0294272,
    "timeoutRate": 0.18216319,
    "triggeredRate": null,
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    "hits": 168,
    "stops": 263,
    "triggered": null
   },
   "timing": {
    "bars_to_target": [
     14,
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    "bars_to_stop": [
     10.5,
     22,
     41
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    "bars_in_trade": [
     14,
     32,
     77
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    "mfe_r": [
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    "stopped_after_1r": 0.20152091,
    "duration": [
     34,
     42,
     53
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    "height_pct": [
     0.19523101,
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    "breakout_delay": [
     1,
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     6
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    "bars_to_pattern_target": [
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   },
   "breakoutStats": {
    "falseStartRate": 0.45454545,
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   "confirmRate": 0.75729927,
   "oneEveryBars": 6940,
   "verdict": "no_edge",
   "verdictTrade": "no_edge"
  },
  {
   "market": "forex",
   "tf": "4h",
   "side": "up",
   "n": 17,
   "symbols": 13,
   "first": "2012-03-01",
   "last": "2026-09-18",
   "win10": 0.70588235,
   "baseWin10": 0.50945452,
   "excess10": {
    "mean": 0.00226421,
    "low": -0.00029914,
    "high": 0.00561098,
    "q": null,
    "stable": true
   },
   "trade": {
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    "winRate": 0.17647059,
    "expectancyR": -0.18333526,
    "baseWinRate": 0.23529412,
    "baseExpectancyR": 0.02286531,
    "timeoutRate": 0.23529412,
    "triggeredRate": null,
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    "hits": 3,
    "stops": 10,
    "triggered": null
   },
   "timing": {
    "bars_to_target": [
     17,
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     38
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    "bars_to_stop": [
     14,
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     54
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     17,
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     83
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    "mfe_r": [
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    "stopped_after_1r": 0.2,
    "duration": [
     34,
     48,
     55
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    "height_pct": [
     0.01404358,
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     0.03663145
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    "breakout_delay": [
     3,
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     6
    ],
    "bars_to_pattern_target": [
     6,
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   },
   "breakoutStats": {
    "falseStartRate": 0.41176471,
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   },
   "confirmRate": 0.832,
   "oneEveryBars": 31118,
   "verdict": "insufficient_data",
   "verdictTrade": "insufficient_data"
  },
  {
   "market": "forex",
   "tf": "4h",
   "side": "down",
   "n": 55,
   "symbols": 23,
   "first": "2012-02-06",
   "last": "2026-10-23",
   "win10": 0.40740741,
   "baseWin10": 0.49781201,
   "excess10": {
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   },
   "trade": {
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    "hits": 14,
    "stops": 32,
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   },
   "timing": {
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     12,
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    "stopped_after_1r": 0.09375,
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     46,
     55.5
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    "height_pct": [
     0.01733063,
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     1,
     4,
     6
    ],
    "bars_to_pattern_target": [
     25,
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   },
   "breakoutStats": {
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   "confirmRate": 0.832,
   "oneEveryBars": 9618,
   "verdict": "no_edge",
   "verdictTrade": "no_edge"
  },
  {
   "market": "all",
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   "n": 168,
   "symbols": 140,
   "first": "2012-03-01",
   "last": "2026-10-21",
   "win10": 0.41071429,
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   "excess10": {
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   },
   "trade": {
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   },
   "timing": {
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    "bars_to_stop": [
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   "breakoutStats": {
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   },
   "confirmRate": 1,
   "oneEveryBars": 8639,
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  },
  {
   "market": "commodities",
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   "n": 4,
   "symbols": 4,
   "first": "2009-06-29",
   "last": "2015-08-31",
   "win10": 0.5,
   "baseWin10": 0.47635066,
   "excess10": {
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    "low": null,
    "high": null,
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   },
   "trade": {
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   },
   "timing": {
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    "bars_to_stop": [
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    "bars_in_trade": [
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    "mfe_r": [
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    "stopped_after_1r": 0,
    "duration": [
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    "height_pct": [
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    "breakout_delay": [
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    "bars_to_pattern_target": null
   },
   "breakoutStats": {
    "falseStartRate": 0.5,
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    "throwbackRate": 0.5,
    "targetHitRate": 0
   },
   "confirmRate": 1,
   "oneEveryBars": 3904,
   "verdict": "insufficient_data",
   "verdictTrade": "insufficient_data"
  },
  {
   "market": "all",
   "tf": "1w",
   "side": "up",
   "n": 60,
   "symbols": 60,
   "first": "1986-12-01",
   "last": "2026-07-27",
   "win10": 0.5,
   "baseWin10": 0.53980516,
   "excess10": {
    "mean": 0.02349767,
    "low": -0.0111576,
    "high": 0.07335523,
    "q": 0.64987257,
    "stable": true
   },
   "trade": {
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    "winRate": 0.35,
    "expectancyR": 0.24858467,
    "baseWinRate": 0.43502825,
    "baseExpectancyR": 0.50278612,
    "timeoutRate": 0.18333333,
    "triggeredRate": null,
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    "hits": 21,
    "stops": 28,
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   },
   "timing": {
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    "bars_to_stop": [
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    "bars_in_trade": [
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    ],
    "mfe_r": [
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    "stopped_after_1r": 0.17857143,
    "duration": [
     35,
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    ],
    "height_pct": [
     0.31203996,
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    "breakout_delay": [
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     5,
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    "bars_to_pattern_target": [
     11,
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   },
   "breakoutStats": {
    "falseStartRate": 0.40384615,
    "baseFalseStartRate": 0.35734464,
    "throwbackRate": 0.66071429,
    "targetHitRate": 0.3220339
   },
   "confirmRate": 0.79727096,
   "oneEveryBars": 25893,
   "verdict": "no_edge",
   "verdictTrade": "no_edge"
  },
  {
   "market": "all",
   "tf": "1w",
   "side": "down",
   "n": 131,
   "symbols": 129,
   "first": "1988-03-28",
   "last": "2026-07-13",
   "win10": 0.57251908,
   "baseWin10": 0.4914446,
   "excess10": {
    "mean": 0.02772037,
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    "q": 0.37800101,
    "stable": true
   },
   "trade": {
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    "baseExpectancyR": -0.31116386,
    "timeoutRate": 0.12987013,
    "triggeredRate": null,
    "invalidatedRate": null,
    "hits": 12,
    "stops": 55,
    "triggered": null
   },
   "timing": {
    "bars_to_target": [
     29,
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    ],
    "bars_to_stop": [
     10,
     19,
     43
    ],
    "bars_in_trade": [
     11,
     32,
     66
    ],
    "mfe_r": [
     0.29850405,
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     1.28232467
    ],
    "stopped_after_1r": 0.14545455,
    "duration": [
     33.5,
     43,
     52
    ],
    "height_pct": [
     0.56989276,
     0.9868359,
     2.38496244
    ],
    "breakout_delay": [
     1,
     3,
     5
    ],
    "bars_to_pattern_target": [
     19.5,
     37,
     45.5
    ]
   },
   "breakoutStats": {
    "falseStartRate": 0.54545455,
    "baseFalseStartRate": 0.5483871,
    "throwbackRate": 0.64102564,
    "targetHitRate": 0.12903226
   },
   "confirmRate": 0.79727096,
   "oneEveryBars": 11859,
   "verdict": "no_edge",
   "verdictTrade": "no_edge"
  }
 ],
 "attribution": "PatternsWizard (https://patternswizard.com/), pattern statistics",
 "license": {
  "name": "© PatternsWizard, all rights reserved",
  "url": "https://patternswizard.com/open-data/#license"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Historical statistics before fees and slippage. Not investment advice: past results do not predict future ones."
}