{
 "id": "bart_bearish",
 "name": "Bearish Bart Simpson",
 "family": "chart",
 "direction": "bearish",
 "page": "https://patternswizard.com/bart-simpson-pattern/",
 "data": "https://patternswizard.com/data/patterns/bart_bearish.json",
 "rule": "A sharp rise to a top: the swing from the last confirmed low to the top rises at least 3 ATR, over at least 3 bars, at least 0.5 ATR per bar. Then a flat plateau, from the first bar within 10% of the rise of the top until the first close below its lowest low: it lasts 1 to 3 times the rise, never falls more than 50% of the rise below the top, its bars average less than one ATR from high to low, and a straight line fitted to its closes moves less than 10% of the rise across it. Confirmed by that close. Stop at the top.",
 "entry_rule": "Close below the low of the plateau",
 "stop_rule": "At the top of the spike",
 "trade_rule": "Entry at the close of the signal bar. Exit at the stop or the target, or at the open when a bar opens beyond either one; otherwise at the close after 100 bars. When one bar touches both the stop and the target, the loss is counted. No fees or slippage. A result above +2 R or below −1 R means a bar opened past the target or the stop, and the trade was closed at that open.",
 "generated_at": "2026-11-05T17:19:18+00:00",
 "code_version": "c2a1683f",
 "results": [
  {
   "market": "crypto",
   "tf": "1h",
   "side": "all",
   "n": 9384,
   "symbols": 570,
   "first": "2017-10-19",
   "last": "2026-10-28",
   "win10": 0.46749787,
   "baseWin10": 0.50632573,
   "excess10": {
    "mean": -0.00138607,
    "low": -0.00198907,
    "high": -0.00085564,
    "q": 0.0033443,
    "stable": true
   },
   "trade": {
    "n": 9377,
    "winRate": 0.28111336,
    "expectancyR": -0.03136237,
    "baseWinRate": 0.30356191,
    "baseExpectancyR": 0.03027454,
    "timeoutRate": 0.08382212,
    "triggeredRate": null,
    "invalidatedRate": null,
    "hits": 2636,
    "stops": 5955,
    "triggered": null
   },
   "timing": {
    "bars_to_target": [
     11,
     23,
     42
    ],
    "bars_to_stop": [
     6,
     13,
     28
    ],
    "bars_in_trade": [
     8,
     19,
     40
    ],
    "mfe_r": [
     0.30000001,
     0.88463235,
     2.03225803
    ],
    "stopped_after_1r": 0.19848866,
    "duration": [
     13,
     16,
     21
    ],
    "height_pct": [
     0.0506708,
     0.07243969,
     0.10640154
    ],
    "breakout_delay": [
     0,
     0,
     1
    ],
    "bars_to_pattern_target": [
     3,
     10,
     22
    ]
   },
   "breakoutStats": {
    "falseStartRate": 0.46805333,
    "baseFalseStartRate": 0.43941816,
    "throwbackRate": 0.49472113,
    "targetHitRate": 0.43814544
   },
   "confirmRate": 0.03890848,
   "oneEveryBars": 1565,
   "verdict": "edge_negative",
   "verdictTrade": "no_edge"
  },
  {
   "market": "forex",
   "tf": "1h",
   "side": "all",
   "n": 1940,
   "symbols": 25,
   "first": "2012-02-02",
   "last": "2026-10-23",
   "win10": 0.45309278,
   "baseWin10": 0.49133617,
   "excess10": {
    "mean": -0.00023104,
    "low": -0.00041558,
    "high": -0.00005097,
    "q": 0.12225004,
    "stable": true
   },
   "trade": {
    "n": 1939,
    "winRate": 0.30015472,
    "expectancyR": -0.0320184,
    "baseWinRate": 0.29233282,
    "baseExpectancyR": -0.03069968,
    "timeoutRate": 0.04383703,
    "triggeredRate": null,
    "invalidatedRate": null,
    "hits": 582,
    "stops": 1272,
    "triggered": null
   },
   "timing": {
    "bars_to_target": [
     10,
     22,
     37
    ],
    "bars_to_stop": [
     5,
     11,
     26
    ],
    "bars_in_trade": [
     6,
     14,
     32
    ],
    "mfe_r": [
     0.27131885,
     0.83780879,
     2.04148555
    ],
    "stopped_after_1r": 0.19339623,
    "duration": [
     14,
     18,
     23
    ],
    "height_pct": [
     0.00560234,
     0.00777598,
     0.010891
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    "breakout_delay": [
     0,
     0,
     1
    ],
    "bars_to_pattern_target": [
     5,
     10,
     24
    ]
   },
   "breakoutStats": {
    "falseStartRate": 0.5198556,
    "baseFalseStartRate": 0.47895189,
    "throwbackRate": 0.49845361,
    "targetHitRate": 0.4078125
   },
   "confirmRate": 0.05434095,
   "oneEveryBars": 1118,
   "verdict": "weak_evidence",
   "verdictTrade": "no_edge"
  },
  {
   "market": "all",
   "tf": "1h",
   "side": "all",
   "n": 11324,
   "symbols": 595,
   "first": "2012-02-02",
   "last": "2026-10-28",
   "win10": 0.46503002,
   "baseWin10": 0.50375776,
   "excess10": {
    "mean": -0.0011882,
    "low": -0.00164464,
    "high": -0.00071329,
    "q": 0.00163214,
    "stable": true
   },
   "trade": {
    "n": 11316,
    "winRate": 0.2843761,
    "expectancyR": -0.03147478,
    "baseWinRate": 0.3016378,
    "baseExpectancyR": 0.01982659,
    "timeoutRate": 0.07697066,
    "triggeredRate": null,
    "invalidatedRate": null,
    "hits": 3218,
    "stops": 7227,
    "triggered": null
   },
   "timing": {
    "bars_to_target": [
     11,
     23,
     41
    ],
    "bars_to_stop": [
     6,
     13,
     28
    ],
    "bars_in_trade": [
     7,
     18,
     38
    ],
    "mfe_r": [
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     2.03453714
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    "stopped_after_1r": 0.19759236,
    "duration": [
     13,
     16,
     22
    ],
    "height_pct": [
     0.03676373,
     0.06305922,
     0.0978315
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    "breakout_delay": [
     0,
     0,
     1
    ],
    "bars_to_pattern_target": [
     4,
     10,
     22
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   },
   "breakoutStats": {
    "falseStartRate": 0.47693124,
    "baseFalseStartRate": 0.44619098,
    "throwbackRate": 0.49536096,
    "targetHitRate": 0.43295292
   },
   "confirmRate": 0.04061619,
   "oneEveryBars": 1488,
   "verdict": "edge_negative",
   "verdictTrade": "no_edge"
  },
  {
   "market": "crypto",
   "tf": "4h",
   "side": "all",
   "n": 1635,
   "symbols": 439,
   "first": "2018-01-26",
   "last": "2026-10-28",
   "win10": 0.45960832,
   "baseWin10": 0.51850577,
   "excess10": {
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    "low": -0.00600074,
    "high": 0.00023038,
    "q": 0.4049012,
    "stable": true
   },
   "trade": {
    "n": 1634,
    "winRate": 0.26927785,
    "expectancyR": -0.09484762,
    "baseWinRate": 0.30360057,
    "baseExpectancyR": 0.02501011,
    "timeoutRate": 0.06425949,
    "triggeredRate": null,
    "invalidatedRate": null,
    "hits": 440,
    "stops": 1089,
    "triggered": null
   },
   "timing": {
    "bars_to_target": [
     13,
     26,
     44.25
    ],
    "bars_to_stop": [
     6,
     13,
     30
    ],
    "bars_in_trade": [
     8,
     19,
     40
    ],
    "mfe_r": [
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     0.75186568,
     2.01778346
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    "stopped_after_1r": 0.16620753,
    "duration": [
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     16,
     20
    ],
    "height_pct": [
     0.10006621,
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     0.20287691
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    "breakout_delay": [
     0,
     0,
     1
    ],
    "bars_to_pattern_target": [
     4,
     11,
     22
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   },
   "breakoutStats": {
    "falseStartRate": 0.4776485,
    "baseFalseStartRate": 0.44011213,
    "throwbackRate": 0.47429621,
    "targetHitRate": 0.42127921
   },
   "confirmRate": 0.0249376,
   "oneEveryBars": 2245,
   "verdict": "no_edge",
   "verdictTrade": "no_edge"
  },
  {
   "market": "forex",
   "tf": "4h",
   "side": "all",
   "n": 436,
   "symbols": 25,
   "first": "2012-02-09",
   "last": "2026-10-09",
   "win10": 0.51605505,
   "baseWin10": 0.49336351,
   "excess10": {
    "mean": 0.0000361,
    "low": -0.00059729,
    "high": 0.00060325,
    "q": 0.96776501,
    "stable": false
   },
   "trade": {
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    "winRate": 0.33486239,
    "expectancyR": 0.05404596,
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    "baseExpectancyR": -0.02044548,
    "timeoutRate": 0.03669725,
    "triggeredRate": null,
    "invalidatedRate": null,
    "hits": 146,
    "stops": 274,
    "triggered": null
   },
   "timing": {
    "bars_to_target": [
     13,
     23.5,
     41
    ],
    "bars_to_stop": [
     7,
     13.5,
     34.75
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    "bars_in_trade": [
     9,
     19,
     39
    ],
    "mfe_r": [
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     2.05445725
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    "stopped_after_1r": 0.23722628,
    "duration": [
     11,
     15.5,
     20
    ],
    "height_pct": [
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     0.0150992,
     0.02078647
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    "breakout_delay": [
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     0
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    "bars_to_pattern_target": [
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   },
   "breakoutStats": {
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    "baseFalseStartRate": 0.45699541,
    "throwbackRate": 0.44597701,
    "targetHitRate": 0.51044084
   },
   "confirmRate": 0.0541133,
   "oneEveryBars": 1213,
   "verdict": "no_edge",
   "verdictTrade": "no_edge"
  },
  {
   "market": "all",
   "tf": "4h",
   "side": "all",
   "n": 2071,
   "symbols": 464,
   "first": "2012-02-09",
   "last": "2026-10-28",
   "win10": 0.47149758,
   "baseWin10": 0.51321011,
   "excess10": {
    "mean": -0.00199167,
    "low": -0.00419462,
    "high": 0.00036499,
    "q": 0.39165971,
    "stable": true
   },
   "trade": {
    "n": 2070,
    "winRate": 0.28309179,
    "expectancyR": -0.06348646,
    "baseWinRate": 0.30297907,
    "baseExpectancyR": 0.01543589,
    "timeoutRate": 0.05845411,
    "triggeredRate": null,
    "invalidatedRate": null,
    "hits": 586,
    "stops": 1363,
    "triggered": null
   },
   "timing": {
    "bars_to_target": [
     13,
     25,
     42
    ],
    "bars_to_stop": [
     6,
     13,
     30
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    "bars_in_trade": [
     8,
     19,
     39.75
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    "mfe_r": [
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     2.03105694
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    "stopped_after_1r": 0.18048423,
    "duration": [
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     16,
     20
    ],
    "height_pct": [
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    "breakout_delay": [
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    "bars_to_pattern_target": [
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     21
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   },
   "breakoutStats": {
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    "baseFalseStartRate": 0.44366651,
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    "targetHitRate": 0.43996111
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   "confirmRate": 0.02766253,
   "oneEveryBars": 2028,
   "verdict": "no_edge",
   "verdictTrade": "no_edge"
  },
  {
   "market": "crypto",
   "tf": "1d",
   "side": "all",
   "n": 89,
   "symbols": 75,
   "first": "2018-03-08",
   "last": "2026-10-15",
   "win10": 0.60674157,
   "baseWin10": 0.54244658,
   "excess10": {
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    "q": 0.48590074,
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   },
   "trade": {
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    "winRate": 0.375,
    "expectancyR": 0.34249244,
    "baseWinRate": 0.26354167,
    "baseExpectancyR": 0.02084517,
    "timeoutRate": 0.1,
    "triggeredRate": null,
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    "hits": 30,
    "stops": 42,
    "triggered": null
   },
   "timing": {
    "bars_to_target": [
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     33.5,
     60.75
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    "bars_to_stop": [
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     29
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    "bars_in_trade": [
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     26.5,
     57
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    "mfe_r": [
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    "stopped_after_1r": 0.19047619,
    "duration": [
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     14,
     19
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    "height_pct": [
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    "breakout_delay": [
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    "bars_to_pattern_target": [
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   },
   "breakoutStats": {
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    "baseFalseStartRate": 0.44007491,
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    "targetHitRate": 0.60714286
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   "confirmRate": 0.00825472,
   "oneEveryBars": 6764,
   "verdict": "no_edge",
   "verdictTrade": "no_edge"
  },
  {
   "market": "stocks",
   "tf": "1d",
   "side": "all",
   "n": 8121,
   "symbols": 1494,
   "first": "1971-02-18",
   "last": "2026-10-28",
   "win10": 0.44901985,
   "baseWin10": 0.45497906,
   "excess10": {
    "mean": -0.00031487,
    "low": -0.00195053,
    "high": 0.00135386,
    "q": 0.90012382,
    "stable": false
   },
   "trade": {
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    "winRate": 0.24342432,
    "expectancyR": -0.20962854,
    "baseWinRate": 0.24968983,
    "baseExpectancyR": -0.18698106,
    "timeoutRate": 0.04826303,
    "triggeredRate": null,
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    "hits": 1962,
    "stops": 5709,
    "triggered": null
   },
   "timing": {
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     21,
     38
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    "bars_to_stop": [
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     25
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    "bars_in_trade": [
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    "mfe_r": [
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    "duration": [
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     22
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    "height_pct": [
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    "bars_to_pattern_target": [
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   },
   "breakoutStats": {
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    "throwbackRate": 0.51702023,
    "targetHitRate": 0.402133
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   "confirmRate": 0.05618067,
   "oneEveryBars": 901,
   "verdict": "no_edge",
   "verdictTrade": "no_edge"
  },
  {
   "market": "etf",
   "tf": "1d",
   "side": "all",
   "n": 399,
   "symbols": 44,
   "first": "1993-05-13",
   "last": "2026-10-15",
   "win10": 0.43969849,
   "baseWin10": 0.42646934,
   "excess10": {
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    "low": -0.00336771,
    "high": 0.00296062,
    "q": 0.96776501,
    "stable": false
   },
   "trade": {
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    "winRate": 0.31565657,
    "expectancyR": -0.03576695,
    "baseWinRate": 0.28787879,
    "baseExpectancyR": -0.10263802,
    "timeoutRate": 0.02020202,
    "triggeredRate": null,
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    "hits": 125,
    "stops": 263,
    "triggered": null
   },
   "timing": {
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     11,
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     30
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    "bars_to_stop": [
     6,
     12,
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    "bars_in_trade": [
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     27
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    "mfe_r": [
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    "stopped_after_1r": 0.22813688,
    "duration": [
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     15,
     21
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    "height_pct": [
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    "breakout_delay": [
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     0
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    "bars_to_pattern_target": [
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   },
   "breakoutStats": {
    "falseStartRate": 0.48232323,
    "baseFalseStartRate": 0.5037594,
    "throwbackRate": 0.57537688,
    "targetHitRate": 0.45431472
   },
   "confirmRate": 0.06592095,
   "oneEveryBars": 635,
   "verdict": "no_edge",
   "verdictTrade": "no_edge"
  },
  {
   "market": "indices",
   "tf": "1d",
   "side": "all",
   "n": 238,
   "symbols": 15,
   "first": "1981-10-14",
   "last": "2026-10-23",
   "win10": 0.38818565,
   "baseWin10": 0.42474958,
   "excess10": {
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   },
   "trade": {
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    "winRate": 0.26694915,
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    "hits": 63,
    "stops": 170,
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   },
   "timing": {
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     32.5
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    "bars_to_stop": [
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     19
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     24
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    "mfe_r": [
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    "height_pct": [
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    "bars_to_pattern_target": [
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     13
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   },
   "breakoutStats": {
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   },
   "confirmRate": 0.057282,
   "oneEveryBars": 581,
   "verdict": "no_edge",
   "verdictTrade": "no_edge"
  },
  {
   "market": "forex",
   "tf": "1d",
   "side": "all",
   "n": 71,
   "symbols": 23,
   "first": "2012-03-22",
   "last": "2026-04-29",
   "win10": 0.44927536,
   "baseWin10": 0.48556076,
   "excess10": {
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   },
   "trade": {
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    "stops": 46,
    "triggered": null
   },
   "timing": {
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     33,
     48
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    "bars_to_stop": [
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     23.5
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    "bars_in_trade": [
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 ],
 "attribution": "PatternsWizard (https://patternswizard.com/), pattern statistics",
 "license": {
  "name": "© PatternsWizard, all rights reserved",
  "url": "https://patternswizard.com/open-data/#license"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Historical statistics before fees and slippage. Not investment advice: past results do not predict future ones."
}